The growing threat of Greece's exit from the Euro rattled financial markets across the world this past week. Greece's financial issues are not new, but this week there was a sudden breakdown between the negotiations of Greece and European officials. What were they negotiating?Greece owes a lot of people money, but doesn't have any to pay out. Greece announced that they would default on a payment to the International Monetary Fund on June 30. Just like a bookie who is owed money, the European Union doesn't like being told that it is not going to be paid back when they expect to be paid.
How does this impact US stocks. According to Funstrat's Tom Lee, he doesn't believe it will have much of an impact. Here's why:
Most of Greece's debt is held by the Euro-area government, and "the world is better prepared for Grexit today." The so-called bank run, where many customers are yanking their cash at the same time, exists only within Greece.
It's possible that there's some huge hedge fund out there that is significantly exposed to Greek markets, and so stands at risk. However, the consensus is that Greece is not a great place to be invested in right now, and that's more likely what rings true.
The European Central Bank would adjust its quantitative easing program to cope with the crisis in Greece. The Fed in the US would also provide support, if it has to come to that.
If investors decide to pile into safer assets in a risk-off' trade, it just improves the risk/reward profile for stocks. At the end of the day, the trend for stocks into the end of 2015 is up - consumers are spending again and the impact of lower oil prices and a stronger dollar are fading.
I think the markets are less worried about Greece leaving the Euro than it is about a contagion occurring and countries like Spain and Italy become the next hot spot for financial problems. Right now that doesn't look like a possibility, but it is worth keeping a watch on.
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