Traders,
The market pulled sharply down out of that resistance band and now is in a straddle area - waiting to head back up or down to support. The catalyst that will set the tone in the coming weeks? That will be Bernanke's testimony today - he had recently raised the Discount Rate and some read into that as the Fed had or is changing monetary policy. The Fed quickly came out to calm the investment community indicating that was NOT the case and the raise in the Discount was only to reduce the "emergency" financing. While Bernanke's testimony will determine over-all market sentiment over the next few weeks, it will be the CEO Toyoda's (grandson of the founder of Toyota) testimony today that will also receive a critical eye. It is highly unusual for a CEO of a foreign company to testify before Congress. Some have said (those in the conspiracy corner) that there is pressure from GM and Unions to force the issue on Toyota, who knows if that is true - but as CNBC pointed out Michigan's representative was extremely tough and critical on Toyota's head of US Sales (Lentz), but I chalk that up to politics - he needs to keep his supporter happy - so go figure Michigan will be tougher than others. It will be interesting. Lastly - the Treasury Sect. Geithner will also be testifying on behalf of the President's budget. So three big hearings - certainly Bernanke's will steal the spotlight among investors, and the media will be all over Toyoda's testimony, and Geithner's will probably get lost in the shuffle (but no less important.)
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| Day of Volatility
expect something... |
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Politics - Monetary Policy: Today will probably be quite until after Bernanke's testimony. It will most likely get a little heated, he had passed by the narrowest margins (for confirmation). The Fed is also under a lot of pressure by Congress and others. The Fed has been sued for full disclosures of their balance sheets (by Bloomberg) and has been fighting that. The Fed was under scrutiny by Congress for being involved in Bear Stearns, Lehman, and AIG - most of it is still unclear as to what their powers actually are. They were writing the rules as they go. There is also lots of criticism of the incestuous relationship between the Treasury, Fed, and Financial Firms (primarily Goldman). Lastly - Congress is facing mid-term elections and the Fed's popularity is very low - anyone that seems to be siding with the Fed will take heat in the election cycle. Regardless of all that - the still run the show when it comes to monetary policy and whether you support the Fed or not - they will set the stage going forward and all eyes and ears will be on them. http://www.cnbc.com/id/35542268
Budget and Regulation: The budget DEFICIT is massive - over $3 trillion. There is heavy criticism about stimulus and bailouts. The Fed has been back-stopping the Treasury auctions and acting as a clean-up hitter to keep the long-dated treasuries in check. The previous Comptroller, Congressional Budget Office (CBO), and others are concerned about the massive increase in U.S. Public Debt - much of the budget does not include "unfunded liabilities" or as they call them "trusts". It also doesn't cover the GSE liabilities (Freddie/Fannie) which is $5 trillion. The budget is under serious criticism and while Bernanke is going toe-to-toe with Congress and setting the stage for short-term market volatility, Geithner will be testifying about the budget and also discussing regulation. The Volcker Rule will most likely play a role and it is facing serious criticism. The budget and regulation will set the long-term trend for the economy and market. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aieZ19R8J5HI&pos=1 Regulation - Short-Sale Restriction: The SEC is meeting to consider restrictions (AGAIN) on short-sales, as if that is what created the credit crisis. This could also have dramatic impact on market volatility. http://www.cnbc.com/id/35556407 Stocks -
Google is also facing some problems in Europe, so far it is only EU antitrust regulators looking into complaints filed by three companies against Google. Today we will get a glimpse if this will lead towards a formal investigation or if it holds little water and may be dismissed. This could create some volatility in the tech sector. http://www.cnbc.com/id/35554808
Freddie Mac posts a $6.5 billion loss and writes down tax credits. Freddie and Fannie - now fully controlled by the government who backs over $5 trillion in liabilities- continues down the road of implosion and will no doubt receive even more public money to keep it going. What is crazy - these companies are both bankrupt and the government has taken them over and bailed them out (and continues to do so) - yet they wrote over 75% of all new mortgages last year - which ironically saw a 20% increase in defaults. The government never learns. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=agr9q7s4QsL8 |
| Futures Pre-market
Where's the action! |
| The futures are up/down slightly in a holding pattern waiting for Bernanke and possible other volatility. |
| Support / Resistance
Going higher or lower? |
Ironically the indices have moved toward their straddle (pivot) points prior to a huge volatile day - expect a possible move either way and if not today - tomorrow after the news is absorbed. INDU 10,000 (10,250) 10,500 (I think we could easily rip up to 10,500 or down to 10,000 based on how the news plays out.) NDX 1750 (1800) 1850 (Again 1800 is the pivot point) SPX 1075 (1100) 1125 (1100 is the pivot point) RUT 600 (625) 650 (600 is a big support area - watch that). Today is about long gamma and swinging that delta bat. Front-spreaders (short-gamma) could face a little whipsaw today. |
| Conclusion
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Today could be a catalyst that will set the trend for the near and long term. While the Toyota hearing today will be interesting and probably covered more by the national news - the big factor will be Bernanke and Geithner hearings to set the financial/economic/market trend going forward. Google could create some volatility in the tech sector (NDX) - which it has a divisor to keep it from being an over-weight it could trigger some volatility. The other item that is over-shadowed is the SEC regulation on short-sale. I guess when it rains, it pours. There is a possibility that the market doesn't over-react today - but that only means hidden volatility ramping if the market stays at those pivot points. The longer it sticks at the pivot points the bigger the explosion to support/resistance when it breaks.
I didn't even mention the Treasury Auction or some of the housing data that could also play a wild card into volatility today. | |
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| Author |
| Michael Williams has 20 years experience as a institututional floor broker and options market maker. He is a partner in both Silexx Financial Systems (a trading software company) and Kinetic Strategic Group (a private investment firm). He co-authored the book "Fundamentals of the Options Market" a McGraw-Hill text and has lectured throughout the country on Options, Risk Management, and Volatility. | |
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