marketpreview
February 4th, 2010
Traders,
 
Mix action yesterday, the Tech sector saw some strength, but the broader market was fairly week. We came off sharply in January, seem to have found a bottom and a rebound, but then weakness came back quickly. A "dead cat" bounce? At this point it is too early to tell, but certainly not out of the cards. There is a political fight brewing going into the mid-term and add to this the sovereign credit risk that is rearing its head across the pond and we could be in for 6 months of volatility. Today we get a glimpse of the Labor number on Friday with the weekly claims - many had hope that we might even see job creation, but that hope is eroding pretty quickly.
Jobless claims 
unexpectedly rise?

 

        Workers filling for jobless benefits unexpectedly rose last week, indicating the labor department is still under stress. Claims increased 8,000 to 480,000 and the four-week moving average rose 11,750 to 468,750. The 4 week average has rose the last 3 weeks, after falling for 19 weeks. That is a little frustrating as we try to look for claims to decrease, not increase.
                Non-farm productivity rose faster than expected in the 4th quarter - as employers ramp up production output on lower costs (few jobs). Productivity gains is an ironic healthy indicator on margins for companies, but economically it means that companies are not hiring.
 
                There was some expectations that today's jobless claims would fall, not rise and give hope that the employment numbers tomorrow would be better than expected. The futures are under pressure after the weak numbers.
 
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35233130
ECB unchanged 
no exit strategy yet....

                The European Central Bank is in a difficult spot - when all the nations united into one currency it was not a time of crisis. Now the few strong nations are carrying the weak nations. This brings uncertainty to the ECB as to their exit strategy and when. The ECB kept rates unchanged (at 1%) and are dealing with a rise of concern in Greece and to a lesser extent Spain - both nations have seen their credit ratings drop and continue to see debt increase. However, some believe that in March (their next meeting) they will announce their intentions rather than this pause.
                The Bank of England also kept their rates unchanged at (.5%) and has halted its "quantitative easing" program after 11 months of purchases. Our own Fed plans to halt their TALF (mortgage purchase program) at the end of the month as well.
                The West wants to move forward as they have all waved the flag that the recession is over, but there is this concern that if they begin their exit strategy it could cause a second dip recession and that will be worse than the first, because of the already insurmountable debt that has been accumulated. A second dip recession could break more currencies as it will be almost impossible to raise enough money (through the sale of treasuries) to maintain the already nose bleed deficit levels. The Fed could always come back and start printing money again to buy treasuries - but at that point I think there would be a serious loss of faith at that point.
                These are tricky times as the central banks need to be cautious as they attempt to exit their current policies.
 
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35232003
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a2K0bOdIensM&pos=4 
 
Nouriel Roubini thinks the West has a long way to go and the US dollar will fall versus Asia and "Commodity" Currencies:
 
 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aikb19gdRT3A&pos=4
MasterCard 
misses expectations....

                The stock is down sharply in the pre-market (-17 points from 247 to 230) as the company misses estimates. The net income increased 23% (or 2.24 a share, expectation was for 2.48). MasterCard and Visa didn't suffer as much - since they do not lend money (rather charge for transactions). However, as consumers had less credit available we saw sharp declines in credit spending - which means less transactions. The company still saw a profit, however growth looked weaker than expected.
 
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=conewsstory&tkr=MA%3AUS&sid=ar7L3qflUuMY

Futures Pre-market
Where's the action!
 
          Futures are getting hit after the jobless claims came in worse than expected and there is concern that the employment data tomorrow will fall below expectations.
Support / Resistance
Going higher or lower?
 

INDU 10,000 (10,250) 10,500  (We are at 10,250 which is a pivot point and as I said we could see a rather large move up to 10,500 or down to 10,250 and today we are already seeing serious pressure to the down side. Tomorrow will also inject some volatility.)

 

NDX 1750 (1775) 1800 (Again - we are in the middle of a huge potential move up or down. Cisco is looking better than expected and as a overweight it could keep the index from falling too much. Cisco was very optimistic in their earnings and forecast.)

 

SPX 1050 / 1100 (We got up to 1100, but fell slightly yesterday. This morning the futures are under more pressure.)

 

RUT 600 (Watch that 600 area - if that breaks it would show the broader market is seeing move flow out of equities and probably chasing risk-free assets.)

Conclusion
 
          There are some bright stories out there - Cisco today is one of them as they had better than expected earnings and are raising guidance. There are also a few that are projecting growth overseas. However - all of that is being overshadowed by politics and domestic economic data on the ground (main street). 
                Europe has a couple of black marks with Greece and Spain  - there maybe others. Germany can't carry everyone (as the strongest GDP nation in the region). The ECB would probably be more clear as to their exit strategy if it were not for these troubles.
                China is pulling in on their lending, but growth still looks strong and we are seeing international companies continue to slice out a piece of the pie.
 
                Tomorrow could be a big volatility day with employment numbers and if this morning's futures action any indication of the response from lack-luster results - well we could be in for a good jerk!


In This Issue
Jobless Claims
MasterCard
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Author
Michael Williams has 20 years experience as a institututional floor broker and options market maker. He is a partner in both Silexx Financial Systems (a trading software company) and Kinetic Strategic Group (a private investment firm). He co-authored the book "Fundamentals of the Options Market" a McGraw-Hill text and has lectured throughout the country on Options, Risk Management, and Volatility. 
Disclaimer: Silexx Financial Systems, LLC is not a registered investment adviser and does not offer personalized advice. Nothing contained in this email constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Our personnel and/or affiliates may hold positions and/or trade in the securities mentioned. We are not compensated in any way for publishing information about companies referred to in the email. The email is for informational purposes only and the views are held by the author and not Silexx Financial Systems, LLC  or its affiliates. Any investments should be made only after consulting with your investment adviser and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.