marketpreview
February 3rd, 2010
Traders,
 
We had a another solid move up and got the INDU up to that 10250 and SPX above the 1100 area that has been a key area that technical traders have been watching. There seems to be a slight calm in the political storm and it looks like Volcker Rule is starting to get a little watered down. A bluff to boost approval ratings and keep the populist fervor at bay? Who knows - but with the recent Supreme Court ruling on campaign financing has put the Democrats in an awkward position as they don't want to rock the boat of their funding too much.  Wouldn't it be nice if our politicians stopped the politicking and did their job? Unfortunately that won't happen.
ADP Numbers... 
glass half full?

 

        ADP reports that companies cut 22,000 jobs in January - coming in line with expectations and at one of the lowest levels in two years. Certainly a glass half-full / half-empty story, good news that it is still coming down, bad news we are still losing jobs. ADP also revised their December number to 61,000 another decrease. The ADP numbers have been higher than the government numbers, which analyst believe represents the increase in government employee hires (primarily for census workers). A separate report was less positive, indicating that US employers plan to lay off 71,482 workers - the first time since last July that plan job cuts increased.

 

                Companies (especially retail) are watching these numbers closely has they help estimate revenue forecasts. When the jobs move into the positive territory we may see companies increase their supply chain and inventories - looking for a rebound in sales. For now companies remain optimistic with the numbers shrinking, but still shy with their own hiring and inventories.

 

                Now we wait for the Labor Department numbers on Friday. The futures saw a up-down knee jerk move on the numbers.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a0GviS5cLXBo&pos=1

http://www.cnbc.com/id/35213567

ComCast 
beat estimates!
       Comcast (cable operator) reported higher-than-expected earnings, 33 cents a share (expectations were for 27 cents a share). Revenue rose 2.9% and a big part came from internet access and digital phone subscribers increases. Interesting in that they added 247,000 internet customers and 243,000 digital phone subscribers, but lost 199,000 basic video subscribers.
 
                However, the big unknown is their big move into NBC. That transaction will not only tie up capital - but also "could" create more volatility. The late-night war and NBC hemorrhaging - including the 100s of millions in losses already predicted with the Winter Olympics could create more headaches in the short-term.
 
                So far the news for now is welcome relief on the subscriber side and the stock is up slightly in the pre-market.
 
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35214000
Futures Pre-market
Where's the action!
 
          The futures were up buy saw some volatility and eventually moved lower after the mix labor numbers. Expect a slightly lower opening.
Support / Resistance
Going higher or lower?

INDU 10,250 (The 10,250 line is not really resistance - but more of a straddle (or pivot) point.  While we might stay here for a bit to catch a breath - the longer we do the bigger the move towards 10,000 or 10,500 as volatility collapses and hidden volatility builds.)

 

NDX 1800 (After a big drop down through 1750, we have made a good move back up to 1775 - can we get back to 1800.)

 

SPX 1100 (We got back up to 1100 - now can it become support, again?)

 

RUT 600 (The only index to really show a solid area during the down move was the broader RUT - it may have kept the panic in check. Keep watching that 600 area.)

Conclusion
 
           Is this a clam in the storm? The Labor Numbers this Friday will either bring some relief (without spin) or it will continue to give us pause for caution going forward. Optimism seems to be rattled after the New Year, after expectations was for a broad rise in forward guidance by companies and jobs - not more caution. The other big injector is political positioning and "threats" to the financial system with punitive legislation disguised as regulation. Big tax raises are purposed by Obama in his purposed budget, along with "fees" (another form of tax), not to mention more stimulus. So we certainly not down with the credit crisis.
                The next big issue to surface will be the purposed end of the Fed purchasing mortgages at the end of February. If they do stop (as they have said) we should expect some upside volatility to be injected into mortgage rates and also corporate borrowing rates. Not sure if the decks are clear enough for the Fed to stop without causing some volatility and I wouldn't be surprised if the Fed extended it at the last minute.

In This Issue
ADP Numbers
ComCast beats?!
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Author
Michael Williams has 20 years experience as a institututional floor broker and options market maker. He is a partner in both Silexx Financial Systems (a trading software company) and Kinetic Strategic Group (a private investment firm). He co-authored the book "Fundamentals of the Options Market" a McGraw-Hill text and has lectured throughout the country on Options, Risk Management, and Volatility. 
Disclaimer: Silexx Financial Systems, LLC is not a registered investment adviser and does not offer personalized advice. Nothing contained in this email constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Our personnel and/or affiliates may hold positions and/or trade in the securities mentioned. We are not compensated in any way for publishing information about companies referred to in the email. The email is for informational purposes only and the views are held by the author and not Silexx Financial Systems, LLC  or its affiliates. Any investments should be made only after consulting with your investment adviser and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.