marketpreview
January 22nd,  2010
Traders,
 
 Obama's new policy idea of prohibiting banks from trading, making investments in private equity firms, and hedge funds is rather silly. First, it wasn't their investments in trading that created the problem, it clearly was (an still is) their loans that are failing (primarily in mortgages). The hypocrisy is rather alarming, simply because when any politician (left or right) are driven by approval ratings means they might not always do the right thing. Obama came into office with over 70% approval, promising change and hope. Clearly he was not able to get everything done in the first year and the democrats should not of expected that he could, things take time. However, his approval ratings dropped to 50% by year end (one of the largest drops for any first year presidency). His simple promises were not kept (not hiring lobbyist, 5 day public review of legislation, etc.). His economic advisors were way more optimistic than the Congressional Budget Office and other economists. Certainly bailing out the banks as well as other companies was not popular, but he made that decision and is accountable, responsible, and liable for that decision. The Democrats are very concerned coming into the mid-term election, primarily the Senate seat loss (which was totally unexpected) - even with Obama's campaigning when the Democrat was in the lead - quickly fell by double digits. Obama and Democrats are now looking to make populist decisions (regardless of right or wrong) to garner votes. Politics are now taking a front seat and that is dangerous.
               
Here's the problem with Obama's new policy that is focused on the banks.
 
1.       Certainly the banks got bailed out, but so did GM, Chrysler, AIG, Freddie, Fannie, and others. The majority of the banks paid back their loans, but the others did not. How come he is not critical of the "too big to fail" GM, Freddie, Fannie, and others?  Why is it the banks that have to pay the "FEE" and face all the criticism - as if it was their fault alone?
 
2.       The banks bulk of their loss in the credit crisis was mortgages, not stock market or bond investments. Sure there were some private equity firms in real estate and mortgages, but why would you want to strike down an entire system? This is a primary source of bank revenue, has Obama not paid attention to the last 3 quarter earnings of these banks. If we had it his way the banks would not of seen the recovery in the last nine months.
 
3.       The banks are not to blame for taking government money, the only one that is to blame is Congress, the Fed, and the Administration. How do you get mad at someone that you lent money to and then paid you back? I would be more critical and upset with GM or even worse Freddie and Fannie. That is money we will NEVER see back. The banks paid back the government, but not GM. The government has failed to understand their accountability, responsibility, and liability - they wrote the checks. Remember when the people were protesting the TARP, the government didn't listen then and just wrote the checks?  
 
This is not about proper regulation, this is about making some "tough bold statements" in the light of a slipping approval rating and losing a seat in the Senate. This is about garnering votes and making the populist decision - not the right decision. Obama has been under fire from his own party - this is about politics.
 
                Let's hope that Obama and Congress focus on NEEDED regulation not Grand Standing and knee jerk reactions to win approval ratings. There is a lynch mob out there and the banks (who were bailed out and the banks paid them back) made lots of profit last year. Obama feels the need to do something to boost his failing approval ratings.
 
                This is not meant to be a political news letter, but the more the government intervenes rather than being the regulator - we need to be aware of how this will impact the market.
 
                His statement certainly sent the entire market down yesterday.
 
GE beats 
even with NBC in the doghouse.

            

           With all the problems over at NBC (GE's the parent company of that red-headed step child), they managed to beat estimates. While profits continue to decline, they have been better than expected. GE is also shrinking their troubled GE Capital, by writing fewer loans and raising reserves against potential losses. They also agree to sell most of NBC Universal, and just in time before the Late Night Wars started up. The company is focusing on their manufacturing and industry - looking to boost international sales in medical equipment, jet engines, and locomotives.
                I have to hand it to Jeffery Immelt (CEO), who is not afraid to trim long standing businesses and focus efforts on sectors of the business that will drive future revenue. Clearly - they heard the word - emerging markets are growing.
                The stock is up in the pre-market
 
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ajOwLdP7o.QQ&pos=2 
McDonald's 
Big Mac Attack!
          

The world's largest restaurant company saw global sales increase 2.3%. Domestic sales have been difficult, but to increase traffic they have offered free internet, offered a new refresh look at their coffee products (after seeing Dunkin Donuts do well), and offer 1 breakfast menus. However, the real story continues to be international growth and sales. McDonald's is about one thing - VALUE - food quickly and cheap. In the first world nations were jobless rates climb and income falls - McDonald's helps on the wallet and in those emerging markets as people move up the later McDonald's becomes a staple.

 

                The stock is little changed in the pre-market, slightly up.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aRppsqpuVMDM&pos=6

Futures Pre-market
Where's the action!
 
            The futures are mixed, NDX/RUT are up and the INDU/SPX are down. Expect a mix opening.
Support / Resistance
Going higher or lower?
 

INDU 10,250 / 10,500 (We seriously broke that support area yesterday and now the 10,250 area is the next area to watch.)
 
NDX 1850 / 1900 (We are right at that support area - Google is not helping - and while it should be an overweight, its divisor is keeping it from pulling it down.)
 
SPX 1100 / 1150 (We are above support for now.)
 
RUT 600 / 650 (We did have a rather strong pull back yesterday, but are still holding.)
Conclusion
 
         As I mentioned earlier the VIX was showing signs of getting a little too ahead of ourselves and the market has pulled back, but is this a time to buy? I think there is too many political games being played and no one really knows how this is going to turn out. I was not trying to rant this morning as much as I was trying to point out how populist decisions to garner approval ratings can inject huge volatility into the already fragile market. These types of decisions are not about doing what is right, but doing what is popular. We need Obama to LEAD and sometimes that is not doing the popular thing, but the right thing. We NEED regulation, not INTERVENTION and PUNISHMENT. We are heading into very dangerous territory, not only for the market but also for the financial system itself. Punishments and interventions, rather than proper regulation, push businesses abroad or to create new business models to circumvent current punitive laws. We only have to look back and see what Glass-Steagel did to the financial industry and how they reacted. We can't have Obama's approval rating drive policies - that is getting into uncharted and dangerous ground. I appreciate the serious blow losing the Senate seat prior to passing Health Care and the mid-term elections - everyone thought it was a shoe-in for the Democrats. Now as they lick their wounds, they are steer by populist decision making and if that continues we can expect so serious push back, a more divided and polarized business community, and for us traders more volatility.
In This Issue
GE Beats
Big Mac Attack
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Author
Michael Williams has 20 years experience as a institututional floor broker and options market maker. He is a partner in both Silexx Financial Systems (a trading software company) and Kinetic Strategic Group (a private investment firm). He co-authored the book "Fundamentals of the Options Market" a McGraw-Hill text and has lectured throughout the country on Options, Risk Management, and Volatility. 
Disclaimer: Silexx Financial Systems, LLC is not a registered investment adviser and does not offer personalized advice. Nothing contained in this email constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Our personnel and/or affiliates may hold positions and/or trade in the securities mentioned. We are not compensated in any way for publishing information about companies referred to in the email. The email is for informational purposes only and the views are held by the author and not Silexx Financial Systems, LLC  or its affiliates. Any investments should be made only after consulting with your investment adviser and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.