Traders,
The last couple of days I had been warning of my concern about the VIX getting to low levels - dropping to 17.5 - clearly indicated that fear had left the market. Yesterday it snapped back up as the equity markets took on some serious selling pressure. Most of the morning we saw everything under pressure, but heading into the closing session we saw a significant rally off the bottom. Was it a buying opportunity? We did see some issues hit recent support areas - but those are rather short-term and we should expect to see some more up-n-down volatility. The VIX is still low at 18.60 - relative to the current economic environment. I would say yesterday was a quick reminder not to become too complacent with the long only equity position. The big jolt came as investors, after being told by Obama and Bernanke that the recession was over, have started raising the bar on expectations - but as the financials began reporting earnings the over-all message from their CEO's was loan default are still a problem, we don't expect the job market to recover anytime soon, and we think the domestic economy is still fragile. Clearly not the 2010 message we had been expecting. |
| Jobless Claims
unexpectedly rise! |
The futures had been flight to slightly positive this morning after yesterday's sell off. Then the Labor Department releases the initial jobless claims - which ROSE by 36,000 to 482,000 in the week ending Jan. 16th (the highest level in two months) - expectation was for a contraction to 440,000. Of course the Labor Department spun the news by saying it was due to "administrative" accumulation and did not reflect "economic" reasons. What? Either you are hiring or firing, trying to qualify the reason doesn't change the numbers. I would agree that we should begin to see some stabilization in the job markets in the near term (less firings and not very many new hiring's) thus seeing this number begin to fall (as it previously had). Growth is probably not something we will see for some time, just less firings. The news injected some negative pressure into the pre-market futures sending them sharply lower, but they have come off their lows this morning. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aFBJ.bg43bgA&pos=2
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| Goldman
the gold standard! |
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While the other financial institutions and banks have been reporting lackluster earnings data, Goldman beats profits estimates. Net income $4.95 billion, 8.20 per share, for the last quarter. That was well above estimates of 5.18 per share.
While the company was the first to reduce and exit out of their mortgage back securities at the beginning of the crisis, they still faced problems and while some said they didn't need to take the TARP money - they were supposedly forced, in order to bring stability to those banks that needed it. Whether that was true or not, they had no problem taking $5 billion in a non-favorable deal by Buffet, which makes you wonder how solid those balance sheets were at the time.
In hindsight they were the first to repay the TARP and with borrowed government money they had managed to generate some of the largest profits ever reported, as they leveraged up their risk trades and pretty much just positioned themselves long equities, bonds, and other financial products. In one of the greatest crisis in our history, Goldman was well positioned - they had key ex-employees in top government positions and serious influence.
It reminded me of the time in the movie the Godfather at the very beginning when the gentleman comes to ask for a favor and the Godfather says some day I will come to you for a favor. Well Goldman cashed in all their favors - TARP, AIG back-door money, accounting rule changes, become a member of the Fed and access to the Discount Window, and all while having the President's ear and direct relations with the Treasury.
You can't really blame them, I certainly don't. As disgusting as some may feel it is, they took advantage of an opportunity and it has paid off in spades. If we are to be mad at anyone it is our own politicians and administration that continues to play the fool. They are the ones that granted all the favors and signed the checks. Proof that lobbying pays off. I am certainly against it and two of the "promises" that I had "hoped" that Obama would keep were,
1. Not hiring any lobbyist and limiting special interesting groups (note he hired lobbyist to key positions and there had been more special interest spending in his campaign and 2009 as well as lobbying than ever before).
2. The 5 day transparency promise that all bills and legislations would be made public before any votes (that has not happened as we see bills loaded with pork and earmarks and mid-night votes with no transparency).
I would expect nothing less for Goldman. Stock is up in the pre-market. |
| Futures Pre-market
Where's the action! |
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The futures are under pressure from the jobless claims, but have been helped out with the Goldman news. |
| Support / Resistance
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INDU 10,500 / 11,000 (Up to 10,750 and back down to 10,600 has been the recent game. Futures under a little pressure.) NDX 1850 / 1900 (It look like we were going to break through 1900, but yesterday a sharp pullback to 1860 area - intra-day down to the 1850 area. We are poised to break out of this range in the near term.) SPX 1100 / 1150 (Again a test to resistance only saw it pull back.) RUT 600 / 650 (Right in the middle after a test to resistance.) |
| Conclusion
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Under pressure President Obama is going to make a speech about some regulatory changes in the financial markets. We are not too sure what these changes will encompass but all eyes (and ears) will be on his speech today. Voters are tired of this cozy and in some cases incestual relationship that the Administration and financial institutions have.
The profits and bonuses are back lashing against Obama and now he needs to take the populist side and do something to punish the banks, first it is "FEES" (TARP TAX) now it seems that it could be some type of limited trading. Remember similar action was taken in London and we all know how that faired for the London Exchanges (it crushed them) - once thought to be the center of the financial world.
Could we see the financial markets move off shore (just like the autos, computers, and many other job/service sectors)? Sure why not - I am not arguing against regulation, I am arguing against intervention and more fees. It is a tricky field, it is hard for Obama since it is a hypocritical role he is taking (he took money from these firms, he has hired lobbyist, he has had them for economic and financial advisors and committees, he bailed them out - and now he is going to bring down the hammer). Are we to welcome Glass-Steagall? I think it is certainly a possibility and that will hamper the institutions. Additionally - any transaction fees (taxes) - will no doubt be passed directly through to the investors. | |
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| Author |
| Michael Williams has 20 years experience as a institututional floor broker and options market maker. He is a partner in both Silexx Financial Systems (a trading software company) and Kinetic Strategic Group (a private investment firm). He co-authored the book "Fundamentals of the Options Market" a McGraw-Hill text and has lectured throughout the country on Options, Risk Management, and Volatility. | |
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