There are times in life - and trading - when the head of the hammer hits the anvil. The next 7 days will demarcate such a time.
The election this Sunday in Greece will define the direction that the flailing country will go in. The pro-bailout argument seems to be winning narrowly, although no one has a firm grasp on what the electorate is really thinking.
The FOMC meets on Thursday and again, thinking is evenly divided on whether a third round of quantitative easing (QE3) will be injected into the American economy, or if some more conservative methods will be deployed. An extension of the Twist seems very likely and the Fed, through its daughter agencies, may buy up more mortgage paper that has been burdening banks in the hope that this will prompt those banks to readily lend more money.
There is also a measure of unrest and uncertainty in Egypt, which of itself isn't that important, but may cause ripple effects in Libya, Tunisia and Algeria, whose stability is crucial because of oil production.
The unsettled nature of French politics is also coming to the fore this weekend, and while leftist parties are expected to win some sort of majority in the lower house elections, the nature of that majority is at stake. Will more center-left candidates win? Far left? How troublesome will former head of state Sarkozy's rightist coalition be? The extreme right and the extreme left loathe the European Union and although they attack it from different ends, they could be accidental bedfellows in the French assembly should debate open on how to inject liquidity into euro laggards like Greece.
With all this uncertainty, it is no wonder that safe-haven buying is starting to percolate. But, even this seems uncertain, as many traditional gold buyers who might otherwise exchange their petro-dollars for gold don't seem to be diving into either the physical market or more speculative gold investments. (Mexico, Russia, Venezuela are among those players not playing.)
Is there any wonder why smart minds devised technical analysis? Without it, we all might be reading tea leaves or sifting through the entrails of sacrificed goats.