04/04/2012   Daily Outlook



Greetings!,

 

The precious metals and equities markets reacted strongly with a bearish posture to the most recent minutes released from last month's FOMC meeting. There are two main points  that have come out of those minutes.

 

First, the U.S. economy is genuinely showing signs of improvement as forecasts are looking for a gradually tising GDP. This of course would greatly lessen the need for the Federal Reserve to engage in a third round of quantitative easing.

 

That being said, it is a 180° departure from the comments made during the Federal Reserve chairman's recent lecture series at Washington University. Actually, it's a departure from the interpretation of what Chairman Bernanke said, because it was his defense of QE1 and QE2 that was being interpreted as a possible hint of QE3. If the economy continues to improve we can expect interest rates to remain low, near zero  

Second, the minutes of the March 13 FOMC meeting clearly showed division among the individual central bank directors, who make up the Federal Reserve banking system. This division could in fact remain a wildcard for any further measures by the Fed in regards to quantitative easing. 

 

As always, wishing you good trading,

Executive Producer
The Gold Forecast

gary@thegoldforecast.com 

On Skype Gary.S. Wagner

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Proper Action

 GOLD & SILVER :

 

 Gold: Maintain long in gold @  1650 avg stop below* 1623**  

 

Silver:  Maintain  Long @ 32.91 and 32.02 (32.46 avg) Stop below* 30.52

 


*How far below? I suggest at minimum 1% to 1.5 %

 gold = $16 below      silver .32 below   

 

**  If you were stopped out of gold long, we will advise if  reentering makes sense,      

     if  support holds.  

 

 



MARKET FORECAST

Gary S. Wagner

 

Gold & Silver: On a technical basis we have seen this market for the first time show the potential for a bearish scenario. The current area of 1622 to 1624 is absolutely critical in terms of support. If gold is unable to hold support at the band around 1600, then 1582 - the 78% retracement level - would be the most logical level to look for support.  

 

Gold Chart

 


  

 SILVER Chart:

 

 

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Before deciding to participate in Gold or Silver investments, you should carefully  consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Most importantly with futures activity do not invest money you cannot afford to lose.There is considerable exposure to risk in any futures exchange transaction, including, but not limited to, leverage,and market volatility that may substantially affect the price of  gold and /or silver. Moreover, the leveraged nature of futures trading means that any market movement will have an equally proportional effect on your deposited funds. This may work against you as well as for you.