04/03/2012   Daily Outlook



Greetings!,

 

Today we witnessed the power of a single statement from the Federal Reserve. The U.S. equities markets, as well as the precious metals complex, sold off sharply in response to the release of the Federal Open Market Committee's minutes from its meeting on March 13.

 

The reaction was in response to minutes that revealed a strongly divided Federal Reserve. It's all about quantitative easing. Participants in the FOMC meeting noted an improved economic environment. However, the Fed remains cautious and is expected to keep current interest rates at record lows.

 

Between the lines

 

It is all about the wording of the minutes, with traders paying close attention not only to what is said but what isn't mentioned. We have to deconstruct both the said and the unsaid nuances. The wording contained in minutes released today strongly suggest that the Federal Reserve might in fact be moving away from another round of quantitative easing or QE3.

 

What is most interesting is the current division among Federal Reserve members. According to Forbes, only a couple of members pushed for more policy action in the latest meeting compared with a larger number in the December meeting. It also appears that the Federal Reserve has taken an opposing view from the equities markets. 

 

As stocks have seen unprecedented gains for the first quarter of 2012, FOMC participants noted that "GDP growth would pick up only gradually in 2012 and 2013."

 

My best take on today's activity is to let the dust settle and see the long-term reaction to this new information rather than indulge in the knee-jerk reaction witnessed in the equities and precious metals markets today.

 

As always, wishing you good trading,

Executive Producer
The Gold Forecast

gary@thegoldforecast.com 

On Skype Gary.S. Wagner

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Proper Action

 GOLD & SILVER :

 

 Gold: Maintain long in gold @ 1658 and 1642 (1650 avg) stop below 1623

 

Silver:  Maintain  Long @ 32.91 and 32.02 (32.46 avg) Stop below 30.52

 



MARKET FORECAST

Gary S. Wagner

 

Gold & Silver:  There can be no doubt on a technical basis that today's trading activity in the precious metals markets were weighted heavily in favor of error sentiment. As we discussed yesterday, 1691 still remains a critical target that gold must take out for absolute confirmation that last month's correction is truly ended. To that end, today's activity lent technical support and evidence that the precious metals might in fact trade sideways before returning to a higher bullish trend. This is not my personal belief, though, and as long as major support in gold at 1625 and support in silver at 30.52 hold, we could easily reenter a bullish uptrend. However, caution must be adhered to as we look at the longer-term ramifications of a divided Federal Reserve.

 

Gold Chart

 


  

 SILVER Chart:

 

 

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