The Weekly Review  September 30 2011  

Greetings! 

 

Today is not only the last day of the historically troublesome month of September, but the last day of the third quarter. During this time we have experienced some of the most volatile activity ever  seen in the gold market. From a high of 1920 to a low of 1532, these last two weeks have provided a truly hair-raising coda to an incredible quarter.

The fundamental factors driving the precious metals markets have not been resolved although there have been some strong statements of intent in the U.S. and in Europe concerning the Greece crisis. More clearly on the bright side for gold, interest rates remain low, equities still seem shaky, and most of the non-traditional traders have cashed out their positions. Watch next week for employment numbers and trade activity indexes as predictors for gold's direction should those numbers be significantly softer than expected.

Silver seems more uncertain because of its strong ties to industrial activity (or, in present circumstances, lack thereof), especially in relation to the slowing activity in China.   


Wishing you as always good trading,
   

 gary@thegoldforecast.com 

On Skype gary.s.wagner  

Click link below to watch the weekend reports

    

Market Forecast

Gary S. Wagner

   

    

Last Sunday we saw gold trade drastically lower to an intraday low of 1532. This week can be best characterized as a week of consolidation in attempts to form a base above major support at 1580. The intraday low that gold reached last Sunday is a 61% retracement of the entire rally that began in January of this year. 

 

It does seem as if gold has found support at the 50% retracement level, which is 1610. On an intraday chart one can see a tightening of range as the market forms a base. The beginning of next week should provide us with insight as to whether this space will hold and move higher or continue to lower prices. 

 

I believe that based on the last 3 days of trading and the Three River Morning Star Variation that can now be identified, there is a a reasonable probability that gold will trade higher off of this base. If this comes to fruition, we will look to position ourselves on the long side early next week.

 

 

  

 

After witnessing the dramatic correction on Sunday, silver is in fact trading off of those lows. However, the precious white metal remains under significant downside pressure. On a technical basis it does appear as though it is finding support just above $29 per ounce. The fact remains that silver is still considered predominantly an industrial metal as opposed to a safe haven investment. 

 

Copyright (c) 2011 Wagner Financial Group 
 
Before deciding to participate in Gold or Silver investments, you should carefully  consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Most importantly with futures activity do not invest money you cannot afford to lose.There is considerable exposure to risk in any futures exchange transaction, including, but not limited to,leverage ,and market volatility that may substantially affect the price of  gold and /or  silver. Moreover, the leveraged nature of Futures trading means that any market movement will have an equally proportional effect on your deposited funds. This may work against you as 

well as for you as well as for you.