It's a heavyweight battle between high oil prices in one corner and strong economic numbers in the other. Which one will win?
Oil still lubricates a significant part of the world economic machine and, at more than $100 a barrel, it could cause the machine to seize up and inflation to rise. Unrest in the Middle East, speculative fervor, and the economic recovery are contributing to oil's recent strength, according to MarketWatch.
While high oil prices could hurt the economy, we're seeing some strong economic numbers that may suggest the economy is finally getting some traction. Here are a few examples from last week:
· U.S. factory orders in January grew 3.1%, the biggest gain since September 2006, according to MarketWatch.
· Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 192,000 in February and the unemployment
rate dropped to 8.9% -- the lowest rate in nearly two years, according to Bloomberg.
· Indexes of manufacturing output hit their highest levels in seven years in the U.S. and more than ten years in Europe, according to The Wall Street Journal.
· Signaling "percolating demand for business aircraft," Berkshire Hathaway's NetJets subsidiary placed a firm order for 50 business jets, plus options for an additional 70 aircraft, according to The Wall Street Journal.
The interesting thing about rising oil prices is that the more they rise, the more they sow the seeds of their ultimate destruction. If prices rose out of control, it would likely cause the economy to slow down, the government to release inventory from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, oil producers to ramp up exploration efforts, and other companies to speed up the development of alternative energy sources. All of these things would conspire to help lower oil prices.
For now, don't be surprised to see volatile swings in the market as the momentum switches between high oil prices and strong economic numbers.
Data as of 3/4/11 |
1-Week |
Y-T-D |
1-Year |
3-Year |
5-Year |
10-Year |
|
Standard & Poor's 500 (Domestic Stocks) |
0.1% |
5.1% |
16.0% |
-0.1% |
0.7% |
0.6% |
|
DJ Global ex US (Foreign Stocks) |
1.6 |
3.6 |
17.3 |
-2.5 |
2.1 |
4.9 |
|
10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only) |
3.5 |
N/A |
3.6 |
3.6 |
4.7 |
5.0 |
|
Gold (per ounce) |
1.7 |
1.2 |
25.8 |
13.2 |
20.4 |
18.4 |
|
DJ-UBS Commodity Index |
2.4 |
4.2 |
26.4 |
-7.5 |
0.8 |
4.2 |
|
DJ Equity All REIT TR Index |
-1.2 |
4.6 |
32.3 |
3.8 |
1.9 |
11.3 |
Notes: S&P 500, DJ Global ex US, Gold, DJ-UBS Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT TR Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron's, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable or not available.