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Two tragedies,
worlds apart, reached a boil last week and affected the financial markets in a
not so pleasant way.
Greece, which is an ocean away and no stranger
to tragedy, (think Aeschylus, Sophocles, and Euripides), nearly imploded last
week on fears that its government was bankrupt. With huge budget deficits and
no credible way to pay them, Greece
saw its short-term government bond yields soar past 20%, according to Barron's.
By contrast, the comparable bond in the U.S. yielded about 1% last week,
according to the Treasury Department. As a euro country, Greece has
limited tools to deal with the crisis on its own (e.g., it cannot devalue its
currency or adjust its interest rates) so it has to rely on the kindness of
neighbors to bail it out. This past weekend, the European Union and the
International Monetary Fund announced that they will support Greece with a
$146 billion multi-year aid package, according to Bloomberg. Now comes the hard
part for Greece--implementing
the austerity measures that accompany the bailout.
The concern that
this debt problem could spread and undermine the euro countries helped undercut
many world stock markets last week.
Closer to home,
the uncapped oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico has
states bordering the Gulf bracing for an environmental and economic disaster.
The Gulf is a major oil-producing region and this spill could deter new
drilling, a thought which helped send oil prices up more than 1% last week.
Unfortunately, fishermen, the tourism industry, and the environment itself all
stand to lose, too, as the spill worsens.
While the twin
tragedies captured many of the headlines last week, much of the economic news
was bullish. For example, first quarter gross domestic product grew at a
respectable 3.2 percent annual rate, household spending increased at the
fastest rate in three years, and The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago
Inc. said its business barometer rose to 63.8 in April, the highest level in
five years, according to Barron's. On top of that, The Economist magazine said, "global output is now back to
where it was before the downturn...(and) there is growing optimism that the
recovery is becoming self-sustaining."
Although the
twin tragedies are still developing, recent solid economic news has helped
limit their financial market impact.
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Data
as of 4/30/10
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1-Week
|
Y-T-D
|
1-Year
|
3-Year
|
5-Year
|
10-Year
| |
Standard & Poor's
500 (Domestic Stocks)
|
-2.5%
|
6.4%
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35.2%
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-7.1%
|
0.4%
|
-2.1%
| |
DJ Global ex US
(Foreign Stocks)
|
-1.4
|
1.0
|
39.5
|
-8.1
|
4.2
|
1.3
| |
10-year Treasury Note
(Yield Only)
|
3.7
|
N/A
|
3.1
|
4.6
|
4.2
|
6.3
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Gold (per ounce)
|
3.5
|
6.8
|
33.5
|
20.3
|
22.0
|
15.7
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DJ-UBS Commodity Index
|
-1.0
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-3.2
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21.8
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-8.0
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-2.5
|
3.2
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DJ Equity All REIT TR
Index
|
-1.2
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17.5
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68.6
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-8.4
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4.3
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11.6
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Notes: S&P 500, DJ
Global ex US, Gold, DJ-UBS Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends
(gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are
annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT TR Index does include reinvested dividends
and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year
Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the
historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron's,
djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future
results. Indices are unmanaged and
cannot be invested into directly. N/A
means not applicable or not available.
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