The weather is perfect to enjoy a stroll around the Bob Rodale Cycling and Fitness Park. Emmaus, PA. |
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THE MARKETS |
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It was one year
ago this week that the Standard & Poor's 500 closed at its bear market
nadir of 676 on March 9, 2009. Last week, it closed at 1138, which represents a
gain of 68% from the year ago low. What insights can we learn from the painful
decline to 676 and the rapid rise to 1138? We have a few, but before we get to
them, here's the market box score.
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Data as of 3/5/10
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1-Week
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Y-T-D
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1-Year
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3-Year
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5-Year
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10-Year
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Standard
& Poor's 500 (Domestic Stocks)
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3.1%
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2.1%
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66.6%
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-6.1%
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-1.5%
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-2.0%
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DJ
Global ex US (Foreign Stocks)
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3.6
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-1.2
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75.5
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-5.5
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2.4
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0.4
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10-year
Treasury Note (Yield Only)
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2.2
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N/A
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2.8
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4.5
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4.3
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6.4
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Gold
(per ounce)
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2.4
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2.8
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24.3
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21.3
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21.3
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14.7
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DJ-UBS
Commodity Index
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0.6
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-3.2
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28.6
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-6.7
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-3.2
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2.9
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DJ
Equity All REIT TR Index
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3.9
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3.7
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127.6
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-10.9
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1.7
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11.5
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Notes: S&P 500, DJ
Global ex US, Gold, DJ-UBS Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends
(gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are
annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT TR Index does include reinvested dividends
and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year
Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the
historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron's,
djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future
results. Indices are unmanaged and
cannot be invested into directly. N/A
means not applicable or not available.
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HIGHLY VOLATILE MARKETS
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Highly volatile markets can be great teachers and the last few
years offered a great learning environment for those willing to pay attention. Here
are a few thoughts to ponder:
- Cracks
tend to appear in the dike before the dike breaks. The first cracks that led to the
2007-2009 bear market formed in mid-2005 as the housing market began to
cool off and defaults among subprime mortgages began to rise, according to
The Federal Reserve and Vanguard. However, early on, the cracks were
largely dismissed as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress on March 28,
2007 that subprime defaults were "likely to be contained,'' and former
Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson said on August 1, 2007, "I see the
underlying economy as being very healthy," according to Reuters.
Reassured, the stock market continued rising until early October
2007.
- Not
all cracks in the dike lead to a major break. This is a really tricky part about
investing--how to discern the difference between a cyclical issue and a
secular issue. Cyclical issues are short-term blips that don't cause major
long-term damage. Secular issues are multi-year problems that left
untreated may cause real trouble. Overcompen-sating for the former and
under-compensating for the latter is a bad combination.
- When
a major break does occur, it can lead to massive flooding. Almost all traditional asset
classes declined during the 2007-2009 bear market, so it was hard to find
shelter from the storm. Even many of the so called "smart
investors," such as hedge funds, discovered that they too were
vulnerable to the market's vicissitudes, according to Bloomberg.
- Hundred-year
floods seem to happen much more frequently than theory suggests. Just since 1950, the U.S. has
experienced 10 bear markets, defined as a drop of 20% or more from the
market's previous high, according to Standard & Poor's. Excluding the
most recent bear market, the average decline during these bear markets was
31.7%. And, don't forget, on October 19, 1987 the market dropped more than
20%--effectively a bear market in a day! This frequency of large declines
makes it difficult to rely on modern portfolio theory as a panacea.
- Dikes
can be repaired and the flooding cleaned up. After each of the first nine bear
markets since 1950, the stock market went on to reach a new all-time high.
We are currently in the 10th bear market so the jury is still out on
whether we'll hit a new one again. However, unless you think the world is
coming to an end soon, chances are the stock market will regain its
previous high. When that new
high will happen is subject to fierce debate.
- Bad
floods may leave lasting damage--both physical and psychological. After particularly bad investment
experiences, some investors yank their money from the market and seek
safer pastures. It's akin to people who grew up during the depression and
developed a lifelong habit of frugality; they were never quite able to
shake the trauma of their early lean years. Financial wounds may heal, but
scars persist.
- People
continue to build homes in flood-prone areas. The reverse from above is also
true. Some people have short investment memories and quickly bounce back
into their aggressive investment ways. Rather than learn from the past,
they continue to repeat it and hope that they will somehow manage to dodge
the next bullet.
With the large rally
we've seen since the March 2009 low, we seem to be in the "Dikes can be
repaired and the flooding cleaned up" stage. However, given the size of
the flood (bear market) we experienced, the clean-up stage could continue for
some time and the chance of further flooding still remains.
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THINK ABOUT IT
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"Experience
fails to teach where there is no desire to learn."
--George Bernard
Shaw
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 Mary L. Nothelfer, CFP® Emilio
J. Morrone, CPA, CFP®
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Securities offered through LPL
Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC.
*
The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities
considered to be representative of the stock market in general.
*
The DJ Global ex US is an unmanaged group of non-U.S. securities designed to
reflect the performance of the global equity securities that have readily
available prices.
*
The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to
the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower,
investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond
market.
*
Gold represents the London
afternoon gold price fix as reported by the London Bullion Market Association.
*
The DJ Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark
for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on
19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
*
The DJ Equity All REIT TR Index measures the total return performance of the
equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as
calculated by Dow Jones.
*
Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index
between two specific periods.
*
Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as
investment advice or to predict future performance.
*
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
*
You cannot invest directly in an index.
*
Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
*
This newsletter was prepared by PEAK.
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