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The U.S. stock
market has had several "mini corrections" since the March 9, 2009 low
and last week's strong performance has some analysts saying the recent 9% drop
in the S&P 500 from its mid-January high may have run its course, according
to the Associated Press.
Stocks rose for
the second consecutive week and have now recouped about two-thirds of the 9%
drop that occurred between January 19 and February 8. Jitters about sovereign
debt problems in Europe, central governments "taking away the punch
bowl" of easy money, and a surprise rise in the discount rate last week
have started to give way to the good news that corporate earnings are still
moving up smartly, the manufacturing sector is on the rise, and inflation is
subdued, according to Bloomberg.
Interestingly,
whether you are bullish or bearish, there is still plenty of data to support
either view. However, some of this data is contradictory which makes discerning
solid trends a little more difficult. For example, the value of the U.S. dollar
rose more than 8% against a basket of six currencies between late November 2009
and February 19, according to www.stockcharts.com. Yet, as the dollar is rising, our
government is running trillion dollar deficits and the Federal Reserve
continues to proclaim that it will keep interest rates low for an extended
period of time--both of which would seem to be bad news for the value of the
dollar.
Also, core
consumer prices declined in January
for the first time since 1982, suggesting inflation is well under control.
Despite low inflation, gold closed last week over $1,100 an ounce, which is not
far from its all-time record high, according to Barron's and CNBC. Low
inflation would seem to be bearish for gold prices, but, so far, gold has
ignored our relatively stable prices.
This "new
normal" of contradictory relationships makes navigating the financial
markets a bit trickier than usual, but we are working hard to meet the
challenge for you.
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Data as of 2/19/10
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1-Week
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Y-T-D
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1-Year
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3-Year
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5-Year
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10-Year
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Standard & Poor's 500 (Domestic
Stocks)
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3.1%
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-0.5%
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44.0%
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-8.8%
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-1.3%
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-2.0%
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DJ Global ex US (Foreign Stocks)
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1.5
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-4.9
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53.3
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-8.8
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2.0
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0.4
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10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only)
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3.8
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N/A
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2.9
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4.7
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4.3
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6.3
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Gold (per ounce)
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2.8
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0.8
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13.5
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18.4
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21.1
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13.8
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DJ-UBS Commodity Index
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3.7
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-3.1
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29.6
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-6.9
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-2.5
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3.2
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DJ Equity All REIT TR Index
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5.4
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-1.0
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89.4
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-15.7
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1.6
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11.0
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Notes: S&P 500, DJ Global ex US, Gold,
DJ-UBS Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay
a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ
Equity All REIT TR Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-,
five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is
simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time
periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron's,
djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future
results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot
be invested into directly. N/A means not
applicable or not available.
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