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Let's recap some of the good news
last week:
· The Commerce Department said the economy grew in
the fourth quarter at its fastest pace in more than six years;
· The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago said
its index of Midwest business activity rose
more than expected in January;
· Consumer sentiment in January as measured by The
Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers hit its highest level in
two years; and
· Of the 220 companies in the S&P 500 index
that have reported fourth quarter earnings, 78% of them exceeded analysts'
expectations, according to Thomson Reuters. In a typical quarter, only 61% of
companies beat Wall Street targets.
Sounds pretty good, doesn't it? So,
how does the stock market respond? It goes down.
Once you delve into it a little
further, this "good news for the economy is bad news for the stock market" may
not be as illogical as it seems. Do you remember how bad things were back in
early March 2009? Just as the economy seemed on the brink of destruction, the
stock market turned around and started soaring. Back then, investors detected
the early signs of a turnaround in the economy. They were proven right as
evidenced by last quarter's GDP growth and the positive fourth quarter earnings
that are now coming out.
Effectively, the stock market
anticipated the recent positive news and that is partly why the market rallied
so much in 2009. Now, it appears that much of this good news is already
"priced" into the market. So, rather than propelling the market higher, the
good news is causing some investors to take profits while waiting for the next
catalyst.
Whether this recent downturn is
just a bump along the bull market path or the beginning of a new leg down is
unknown. Either way, we continue to monitor the situation on your behalf.
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Data as of
1/29/10
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1-Week
|
Y-T-D
|
1-Year
|
3-Year
|
5-Year
|
10-Year
|
|
Standard
& Poor's 500 (Domestic Stocks)
|
-1.6%
|
-3.7%
|
30.0%
|
-8.9%
|
-1.9%
|
-2.6%
|
|
DJ
Global ex US (Foreign Stocks)
|
-3.4
|
-4.4
|
43.5
|
-7.4
|
2.8
|
0.7
|
|
10-year
Treasury Note (Yield Only)
|
3.6
|
N/A
|
2.8
|
4.9
|
4.1
|
6.7
|
|
Gold
(per ounce)
|
-0.5
|
-2.3
|
20.9
|
18.7
|
20.6
|
14.3
|
|
DJ-UBS
Commodity Index
|
-4.3
|
-7.3
|
16.4
|
-7.0
|
-2.5
|
2.9
|
|
DJ
Equity All REIT TR Index
|
-0.7
|
-5.2
|
41.7
|
-15.7
|
1.3
|
10.3
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Notes: S&P 500, DJ
Global ex US, Gold, DJ-UBS Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends
(gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are
annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT TR Index does include reinvested dividends
and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year
Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the
historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance,
Barron's, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no
guarantee of future results. Indices are
unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.
N/A means not applicable or not available.
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