The Easton vs. Phillipsburg Thanksgiving Football game is an annual tradition. Easton won this year, 26-10. Photo via the Morning Call website, Denise Sanchez.
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THE MARKETS |
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Two steps forward, one step back
might be an appropriate description of the financial markets these days.
We started the week on a good note
as the National Association of Realtors said existing home sales rose 10.1% in
October to the highest seasonally adjusted annual rate since February 2007.
Later in the week, the Commerce Department said new home sales rose 6.2% in
October, which was well above the number that economists surveyed by
MarketWatch had expected. And, the Labor Department said 466,000 Americans
filed for unemployment benefits for the week ending November 21. That was the
lowest number since September 2008. The stock market liked these numbers and by
Wednesday of last week, the S&P 500 index had hit a 13-month high,
according to MarketWatch.
Then came Thursday. As most of us
were celebrating Thanksgiving, Dubai World - the investment arm of the country
of Dubai,
announced that it was delaying repayment on much of its debt. That surprise
announcement sent stocks, bonds, and commodities around the world into a
tailspin. By Friday, cooler heads prevailed and the decline in the U.S. market was
limited. For the week, the S&P 500 was flat.
This week, investors will likely
focus on the early read from "Black Friday" sales to determine if the consumer
has any oomph left. Additional news from Dubai
may also move the markets. While the S&P 500 is up about 60% from its March
9 low, last week's surprise news from Dubai
indicates that there may be lingering effects from the recession for some time
to come.
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Data as of 11/27/09
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1-Week
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Y-T-D
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1-Year
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3-Year
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5-Year
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10-Year
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Standard & Poor's
500 (Domestic Stocks)
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0.0%
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20.8%
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21.8%
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-7.6%
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-1.5%
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-2.5%
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DJ Global ex US
(Foreign Stocks)
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-0.7
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36.0
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44.8
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-5.3
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3.6
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0.9
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10-year Treasury Note
(Yield Only)
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3.2
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N/A
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3.0
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4.5
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4.3
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6.2
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Gold (per ounce)
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2.3
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34.1
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43.3
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22.2
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20.9
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14.8
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DJ-UBS Commodity Index
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0.3
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15.4
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10.2
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-7.8
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-2.6
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4.0
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DJ Equity All REIT TR
Index
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-2.9
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15.3
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31.3
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-15.0
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-0.6
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10.1
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Notes: S&P 500, DJ
Global ex US, Gold, DJ-UBS Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends
(gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are
annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT TR Index does include reinvested dividends
and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year
Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the
historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance,
Barron's, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no
guarantee of future results. Indices are
unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.
N/A means not applicable or not available.
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EXPERTS HAVE DEVELOPED MANY RULES OF INVESTING
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Experts have developed many rules of investing,some
of which work better than others. It would make our lives easier if we found some
rules that worked in all situations and at all times, but, of course, we
haven't found those rules, yet! Nonetheless, here are several from veteran
investor and market observer Dennis Gartman that are worth considering. Gartman
published these rules in a book edited by John Mauldin titled, Just One Thing.
RULE # 1
Never add to a losing position. Gartman says the market knows best and,
if an investment is going down in value, then you should get out, not add more.
RULE # 2
Mental capital trumps real capital. Yes, you lose money (real capital) by
holding onto a losing position, but Gartman says the emotional cost of holding
onto a losing position is even more costly as you toss and turn about what to
do. Better to take your loss and move on to something more promising.
RULE #3
Sell markets that show the greatest
weakness; buy markets that show the greatest strength. This is similar to the old saying, "The
trend is your friend." You may not agree with the trend, but the market doesn't
really care what you think; it responds to what the majority of investors
think.
RULE #4
Keep your trading system simple. Some of the most "sophisticated"
investors were the biggest losers in 2008. Gartman says, "Complexity breeds
confusion; simplicity breeds an ability to make decisions swiftly, and to admit
error when wrong. Simplicity breeds elegance."
RULE # 5
Do more of that which is working and do
less of that which is not. Sounds
simple, doesn't it? Essentially, it's add to your winners and sell your losers.
Rules-based
investing is only as good as the "programmer" of those rules, the investor's
ability to implement those rules, and the markets' desire to follow those rules.
In reality, the financial markets reflect the combined actions of investors
around the world. Trying to come up with rules that accurately reflect this
human herd at all times in all situations is, if not impossible, right next to
it. However, rules can be helpful as a guide.
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THINK ABOUT IT
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"All there is to
investing is picking good stocks at good times and staying with them as long as
they remain good companies."
--Warren Buffett
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 Mary L. Nothelfer, CFP® Emilio
J. Morrone, CPA, CFP®
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Securities
offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC.
*
The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities
considered to be representative of the stock market in general.
*
The DJ Global ex US is an unmanaged group of non-U.S. securities designed to
reflect the performance of the global equity securities that have readily
available prices.
*
The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to
the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower,
investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond
market.
*
Gold represents the London
afternoon gold price fix as reported by the London Bullion Market Association.
*
The DJ Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified
benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures
contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
*
The DJ Equity All REIT TR Index measures the total return performance of the
equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as
calculated by Dow Jones.
* Yahoo!
Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between
two specific periods.
*
Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as
investment advice or to predict future performance.
*
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
*
You cannot invest directly in an index.
*
Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
* This
newsletter was prepared by PEAK.
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