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Have we solved the problems in our
economy or just postponed them?
Last week, the government announced
that third-quarter GDP grew a solid 3.5%. That was quite a relief coming off
four consecutive quarters of negative growth. Gains in the auto and home
building sectors led the charge. Those two sectors in particular benefited from
federal stimulus programs and without the stimulus, "Real GDP would have risen
little, if at all, this past quarter," according to Christina Romer,
president of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.
Proponents of stimulus spending say
it's doing exactly what it should do - it's helping the economy grow. Critics
say we're just delaying another inevitable deep economic adjustment and it's
better to take our medicine now than suffer death by a thousand cuts.
The stock market seems confused
lately as to which strategy - more stimulus or the end of stimulus - is better.
Last week, for example, the Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced three
triple-digit declines and one triple-digit advance as investors vacillated
between a positive and negative outlook for the economy. This volatility may
suggest that after a substantial rise in the markets since early March,
investors are pausing to reflect on where we go from here.
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Data as of
10/30/09
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1-Week
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Y-T-D
|
1-Year
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3-Year
|
5-Year
|
10-Year
|
|
Standard
& Poor's 500 (Domestic Stocks)
|
-4.0%
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14.7%
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7.0%
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-9.1%
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-1.7%
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-2.6%
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DJ
Global ex US (Foreign Stocks)
|
-4.4
|
33.5
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32.8
|
-5.2
|
4.6
|
1.4
|
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10-year
Treasury Note (Yield Only)
|
3.4
|
N/A
|
3.9
|
4.7
|
4.1
|
6.1
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Gold
(per ounce)
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-2.0
|
19.6
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37.7
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19.6
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19.4
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13.6
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DJ-UBS
Commodity Index
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-4.0
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12.5
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0.5
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-7.6
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-3.0
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4.0
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DJ
Equity All REIT TR Index
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-3.4
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12.1
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6.9
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-15.2
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-0.7
|
9.5
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Notes: S&P 500, DJ
Global ex US, Gold, DJ-UBS Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends
(gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are
annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT TR Index does include reinvested dividends
and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year
Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the
historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance,
Barron's, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no
guarantee of future results. Indices are
unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.
N/A means not applicable or not available.
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