CAPSO Midweek E-Mailer

Roughly speaking, the Governor seeks to make government more efficient by identifying overlap between state and local athorities, determining the level of government at which the delivery of services, or fulfillment of functions makes the most sense, and eliminating duplication. To do so, he will focus, initially, on the area of public safety.

To finance the shift, Governor Brown is counting upon Californians to grant a five-year extension of three extant increases in taxes and fees that would otherwise expire this summer. These consist of maintaining the quarter percent increase in the state personal income tax, sustaining the Vehicle License Fee at 1.15 percent, and preserving the state sales tax at 6 percent. Securing an extension of these rates will require a special election, likely to be conducted in late spring.

The second phase of Mr. Brown's proposed realignment will focus on health services, and foresees a shift in responsibility for the delivery of services from counties to the state. Restructuring in this area is regarded as an accompanying consequence of the implementation of federal healthcare policies enacted by the preceding congress and signed into law by President Obama.

Where does K-12 education fit into the budget picture? While the Governor's thoughts on how public education might be restructured remain uncertain, one thing is clear: Mr. Brown has positioned public K-12 education to escape additional, deep budget cuts next year if voters approve an extention of the existing tax and fee hikes. Such a politically shrewd maneuver will, undoubtedly, secure millions of dollars from the California Teachers Association to underwrite the torrent of television and radio ads we can expect to begin seeing and hearing in the near future. And, to sweeten the pot, the governor wasted no time in appointing several new, union-friendly State Board of Education members, drawing immediate praise from CTA President David Sanchez, who remarked that "...the union was thrilled by the new appointees."

As the Mercury News tells it, "If Republicans prevent the tax question from going to the ballot, or voters reject the proposal, public schools will face massive spending cuts." With those contingencies in mind, look for the upcoming special election to be cast as a referendum on the preservation of the state's public education system.

Higher Graduation Rates Linked to Vouchers

A recent study has found that in the city of Milwaukee, students who receive vouchers enabling them to enroll in private schools are 18 percent more likely to graduate from high school than their public school counterparts. The study, "Graduation Rates for Choice and Public School Students in Milwaukee ," was funded by School Choice Wisconsin, a voucher advocacy group, with the actual research conducted by University of Minnesota sociologist John Robert Warren. The Milwaukee Jounal Sentinel reports the story online, here.

The Milwaukee Parental Choice Program (MPCP) is the nation's oldest and largest school voucher program. Launched in 1990, the program currently provides parents with vouchers valued at $6,442, which they then direct to the private schools of their choosing. The value of the voucher is approximately one-half the per-pupil amount of state funding received by the Milwaukee Public Schools. More than 20,000 students currently participate in the program.

The study analyzes seven years of data extending from 2003 to 2009. Its author estimates that had Milwaukee's public schools achieved the same graduation rate as that associated with the private schools participating in MPCP, "the annual impact from an additional 3,939 MPS graduates would include an additional $24.9 million in personal income and about $4.2 million in extra tax revenue."

Over the course of the last two years for which data is available, graduation rates in Milwaukee public schools rose the same degree (5 percent) as the private, voucher-receiving schools. In 2008-09, the graduation rate among students enrolled in the latter group of schools stood at 82 percent, while the public school rate was 70 percent.

As might be expected, the report has drawn criticism. As the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports, Milwaukee public school officials "...point out that the names of the schools analyzed in the study are withheld, which makes it difficult to tell whether similar schools are being compared. Also, voucher schools generally do not serve as many students with special education needs, which can affect diploma rates." Yet, the methodology employed in the report attributes a higher graduation rate - 70 percent - to the city's public schools than the 67 percent figure reported by the district, itself. (The use of differing approaches represents a problem that has long plagued comparative studies of graduation rates.)

The author of the report was diligent in observing that its findings are associative in nature, writing: "Whether the higher MPCP graduation rates are causal in nature - that is, whether these higher graduation rates are due to something real that is going on in MPCP schools - is a question that can only be addressed using a stronger research design. In this regard, we eagerly await further results of the SCDP longitudinal study being conducted at the University of Arkansas. This project, which involves matched pairs of students in MPS and MPCP schools - will help address this question of causality."

Quick Takes

New Push for Voucers in Pennsylvania

Yesterday, an avowed advocate of school choice, Tom Corbett, became the 46th governor of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. In anticipation of Mr. Corbett's inauguration, a bi-partisan group of state legislators has introduced a bill that would establish a state-wide school voucher program for children from low income families. The value of the vouchers has been set at $9,000, with the proposed program to be phased in over a three-year period. The legislation also contains a provision that would increase the current cap on an existing education tax credit arrangement by $25 million. You can read more about the development here, and here.

Amgen Science Teacher Awards Program

Amgen is once again soliciting applications for its annual Amgen Award for Science Teaching Excellence. The awards program recognizes outstanding science teaching at the K-12 level. Winners receive a $5,000 award; in addition, their schools receive a second $5,000 award to further science-related education. It's a small way to thank teachers for their contributions to advance science education in the classroom. This year, Amgen will recognize 34 science teachers throughout the US and Canada. The deadline for applications is February 11, 2011. The application and more information about the program is available, here, and a one-page flyer announcing the program can be accessed, here.

ESEA Renewal - On or Off?

While some of our highly respected contacts at the California Department of Education have opined that the Elementary and Secondary Education Act (AKA "No Child Left Behind") is unlikely to be reauthorized during the current year owing to the presence of a newly installed Congress, one of Education Week's Politics K-12 bloggers sees it differently. Alyson Klein writes, "Rumor has it that the president is going to make a big push for renewing the Elementary and Secondary Education Act in his State of the Union address to the newly divided Congress, slated for Jan. 25."

Apparently, there's a plan afoot to bring a bill to the floor by late spring or early summer of the current year. Why should one expect to see significant movement on the long-overdue reauthorization? As Ms. Klein explains: "the difference this time may be White House involvement. U.S. Secretary of Education Arne Duncan has been tirelessly working on Hill outreach for the past year or more, but things may be different coming directly from the president himself. After all, President George W. Bush's involvement is part of what made it possible to get NCLB done in the first place." And lest we not forget, the No Child Left Behind Act was passed by Congress during the first year of President Bush's first term of office.

Value-Added and Private Schools

Last week, a New York state judge ruled that the New York City public school system release the performance evaluations of some 12,000 teachers. As was done in Los Angeles this past August, the NYC data were generated using student achievement test scores and a controversial method called value-added measurement. The story is reported by the Los Angeles Times, here, and the New York Times, here.

In handing down her ruling, Judge Cynthia S. Kern found that the public interest served by the release of such information trumped the privacy rights of teachers. Despite legal efforts undertaken by the United Federation of Teachers, Judge Kern ruled that the union failed to prove that the manner in which the school district planned to release the data was "arbitrary and capricious." The judge wrote: "The public has an interest in the job performance of public employees, particularly in the field of education. Courts have repeatedly held that release of job-performance related information, even negative information such as that involving misconduct, does not constitute an unwarranted invasion of privacy." The union plans to appeal the decision.

The ruling did not address the soundness of the methodology underlying the evaluations. Though New York City does not currently utilize value-added measurement as an indicator of teacher effectiveness, a recently passed state law will require districts to base 25 percent of a teacher's performance review upon value-added data in the years ahead. The Superintendent-Designate of the Los Angeles Unified School District, John Deasy, has indicated that he favors use of the methodology, though he does not support releasing teacher-specific information to the public.

Value-added measurement uses a student's own past test scores to estimate the same student's future performance, and then attributes deviations from the estimates to the influence of teaching. The methodology is controversial, in part, because the estimates of future student performance require complex calculations that are understood by a relatively small group of experts. Factors such as mid-year student transfers, and small schools (in which the total number of students taught by instructors is of insufficient size to permit reliable estimates) are also problematic.

The issues raised by the release of individual teacher's performance review information are complex in their own right, and I am sympathetic to some of the objections tendered by the teachers unions. On the other hand, the unions have proclaimed for years that one of their chief objections to extending school choice to include private schools is tied to a putative lack of public accountability.

For better or worse, the chickens are now coming home to roost. With $100 billion of federal "stimulus money" recently doled out to public K-12 education, and with a growing number of states reeling under the load of unfunded teacher pension liabilities, the public wants to know what it's getting for the money. In fairness to teachers, that's not an easy question to answer. Yet, even as teachers protest, the public hungers, not only for an answer to the question, but a simple answer. Never mind the underlying math, just tell us who is effective, and who isn't.

Public sector developments involving value-added teacher assessment are likely to have an impact upon private schools, as parents increasingly demand quantitative evidence of the value added by individual teachers. Just as the publication of public school achievement test data mandated by the No Child Left Behind Act triggered increased calls for comparable private school data, it's almost a sure bet that the widespread adoption of value-added teacher assessment by states and local school districts will produce ripple effects that will be felt by private schools.

Should private schools consider experimenting with value-added measurement? Some have already gone a step farther. The Archdiocese of Indianapolis, for example, began experimenting with value-added measurement as a factor in the determination of performance-pay for teachers, in 1999, and the National Association of Independent Schools notes that a number of private schools are participating in the Measures of Academic Progress (MAP) program conducted by the Northwest Evaluation Association. (Data generated by the MAP program is not utilized for teacher evaluation purposes, but as a means of helping teachers fine tune their interactions with individual students.)

In addition to considering the challenges directed at value-added measurement (this is but one example, and this article contains additional links to critical responses), it is important to remember that for value-added scores to be statistically reliable, a large number of students (preferably, several thousand) must all take the same standardized test(s). This may pose problems unless: a) there is a close correspondence between what the test measures and what the schools actually intend to teach. Absent the fulfillment of such conditions, the test in question may be measuring something other than student achievement and/or teacher effectiveness.

You can count on hearing more about value-added assessments of learning and teaching as an increasing number of states and school districts opt to experiment with various applications of the methodology. The Obama Administration favors such experimentation, and has made federal dollars available to induce public school systems to put such programs in place. While anything approaching a final word on the merits of the methodology remains years away, a good deal of the current criticism is little more than political pushback. Whereas some of the objections raise entirely valid concerns inviting serious consideration, wholesale dismissals of the approach simply underscore the public's growing demand for accountability. Stay tuned!

Ron Reynolds