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Above the Noise

Issue: # 1

February  2011 
Greetings!

Welcome to the Crestline Capital, LLC newsletter, "Above the Noise". My goal is to share insights about decision-making and investing that are often overlooked.
I believe that simpler is better so I have a limited number of insights to share. When I have commented on them,  I do not expect to continue the newsletter on a regular basis, I do not want to waste anyone's time with things that aren't that important.
I hope you consider it a good use of your time. Now we are off to the first tee. I hope it finds the fairway!!
  
A Call  in the Middle of the Night

Everyone dreads a call in the middle of the

night.It forebodes a dark outcome; a

feeling of dread that immediately puts you on guard.  

 

The stock market crash of 18 months ago has left many people wary of that same feeling. The smoke from the market turmoil is now clearing. Prices have recently regained all the ground they lost. But that recovery misses the individual stories. Fortunes were changed. People who were close to the financial finish line, landed on the wrong square and had to go all the way back to the starting line. 


Today, despite the signs of an economic recovery, people are still wary of a sudden, unforeseen drop in prices. Perhaps the situation in the Middle East starts the dominoes falling. The U.S. Treasury market is another lurking concern. No one wants to return to the Fall of 2008; a feeling of complete uncertainty. But that uncertainty is an enduring part of the history of investing. The ebb and flow of emotions, the changing tides of greed and fear.  

The smart, simple advice of Warren Buffett and his partner Charlie Munger are like a Norman Rockwell illustration--authentic and comforting. Munger advises to live within your means and to set up your circumstances and expectations so that you don't have to rely on unusual investment returns. Buffett advises to operate with a "margin of safety" and to never have to depend on the kindness of strangers when it comes to money. This simple advice finds friendlier ears today but its' worth is only realized by those who consistently apply it. 

It is the simple and sensible advice that endures. Staying balanced and investing cost-effectively over time are the foundation of a sound investment program. They always have been. But human nature is also about learning and exploring. It is much more gratifying to think you have found the golden needle in the haystack. So a sensible investment strategy that is not consistently followed, will not achieve its goal. A more realistic approach might be to leave a small part of your investment capital for opportunities that are more rewarding. If you decide to go this route, make sure that you understand what you are investing in.You want to stay focused on the task at hand and not depend on a lottery ticket.  

Crestline Capital, LLC is an independent investment advisory firm located near Portland, Oregon..

Sincerely,


Mike Moore
Crestline Capital, LLC

Small Differences Matter Over Time

 

Warren Buffett points out in the 2009 Berkshire Hathaway Annual report that the company's book value per share has compounded annually at 20.3% since 1965 resulting in an overall gain in book value of 434,057%. The annual gain in the market value of Berkshire stock has been 22% over the same time period. What do you think the overall percentage gain in market value has been  compounding at 22% annually?

 

801,516% !!

 

Small differences compounded over time can make a big difference! Don't be fooled by the apparent unimportance of  small differences!!  


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This newsletter is for  informational purposes only. It does not constitute a complete description of our investment services or performance. This is in no way a solicitation or offer to sell securities or investment advisory services. Information is obtained from sources we believe reliable, but we do not warrant or guarantee the timeliness or accuracy of this information. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to accuracy, completeness or results obtained from any information reported herein. or from any linked websites.