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Current Course
 The start of another decade!
The last one started with a hiccup (tech bubble) and
ended disastrously. May better (or at
least more predictable) times lie ahead!
The news seems to indicate that better times are indeed, ahead. For sure, we are not in the frozen panic of
4Q08 and 1Q09. The freeze has
thawed...somewhat. The freefall and panic
has faded but true recovery, if it has in fact begun, has a long way to
go. The news seems to be more about the deceleration
of the economic deterioration, value declines, etc., rather than about signs of
real improvement and recovery. The
credit markets are nowhere near recovery and commercial loan losses are
expected to double or triple over the next 1-2 years. Distress will be in our real estate
vocabulary for several years to come.
The ability to not only survive but also take advantage of the upcoming
opportunities will be a difficult strategic balance that will define success in
the coming years.
-Rick Longpre
(follow me on my blog ... and link up with me on LinkedIn!)
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The Daily Capitalist: Housing Market's Still In Trouble
By Jeff Harding
We haven't hit bottom yet, and an artificially backed bubble will only hinder real economic recovery
Since the biggest financial collapse in world history was built on credit related to housing, it's pretty obvious that we should be paying very close attention to that market. The reasons are complex, but a recovery must be based on the liquidation of bad debt. The sooner that happens, the quicker a recovery will happen.
Read more...
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 California Jobless Rate is Peaking, Experts Say
Unemployment will top out this month at 12.7%, but the recovery will take years, UCLA economists say.
- latimes.com
California's jobless rate is close to peaking, but the recovery will be sluggish, with employers not expected to resume hiring until at least next spring, according to new forecasts by UCLA and other analysts.
The state's unemployment rate, which hit 12.5% in October, will probably peak at 12.7 this month. Still, it won't fall below 10% until 2012, according to a UCLA Anderson forecast released today.
That
means California's economy almost certainly will continue to struggle for the
foreseeable future. And key industries such as housing and manufacturing
probably won't return to pre-recession levels of employment for years,
according to UCLA and forecasts this month from Chapman University in Orange,
Beacon Economics and Comerica Bank. Read more...
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Dramatic Declines in Foreclosure Activity
Banks cancel more foreclosures then they sell for first time
-foreclosureradar.com
Foreclosure activity dropped dramatically in December, especially when looked at on a daily average basis. For example while Notices of Default dropped 17.5 percent in aggregate, they actually dropped 32.5 percent on a daily average basis due to the fact that December had 22 days on which documents were recorded, versus 18 in November. Read more....
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 Latitude, Inc. Current Featured Opportunities
Latitude is pleased to highlight
some beautiful listings!
57 San Mateo - 3br/2ba Single family home for SALE more info
38 S. La Cumbre - Dental/ Med/ Prof Office for LEASE more info
597 Avenue of the Flags - Retail/Office in Buellton - more info
28 E. Canon Perdido - Downtown offices for Lease more info
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 Tidbits from the Urban Land Institute
-anonymous from Urban Land Institute meeting in San Francisco, Nov. 2009
1. No prediction for near-term future (3 yrs) expect that it
should be better;
2. If you are a developer, find something else to do for the next
3-5 years;
3. Recovery will be slow. Unemployment will not drop back to more
normal levels until 2014.
4. Real estate values are generally down 40%;
5. What terms of credit will be available - nobody knows;
6. The rating agencies will operate differently, disconnecting investment banks
and agencies;
7. Housing in bad and incentives create false market; land has zero or negative
value in worst markets;
Read more...
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Retail Investors to Enter Market in 2010
Daily Real Estate News | December
15, 2009 |
Jones Lang LaSalle's 2010 Retail
Outlook projects retail transactions and sales volumes to increase as customer
demand starts to gradually recover.
In the new year, investors looking
to take advantage of low acquisition prices are likely to find some of the
biggest value in Class A trophy shopping malls.
Kris Cooper, managing director in
the retail investment sales practice, remarks, "The continued lack of
liquidity in the debt markets has contributed to pent-up demand, and we expect
opportunistic investors to cautiously re-enter the market in early 2010. We're
just now seeing lenders' willingness to lend to strong sponsors open up, but
those lending offers are at far more conservative levels than we've seen in the
past."
Because of pending debt maturities
and the need for capital, highly leveraged institutional investors are expected
to hold on to properties unless forced to dispose of them. Cooper concludes,
"Buyers will probably stick around for the next six to nine months before
seeking better opportunities. We are also seeing significant interest from
international buyers who feel now is the time to re-enter the U.S.
market."
Source: GlobeSt.com, Katie Hinderer
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 Economy Improving in 4th Quarter
Daily Real Estate News - December 23, 2009
The economy
grew 2.2 percent in the third quarter. The U.S. Commerce Department had
previously estimated a 2.8 percent growth rate. Officials attributed the
discrepancy to consumer caution, saying that consumers simply didn't spend as
much.
Many analysts still believe the
economy is likely to improve in the current quarter, growing at an estimated 4
percent, or perhaps, even 5 percent. Fourth quarter results will be released
Jan. 29.
Companies stocking depleted
inventories will drive fourth-quarter growth, but the results will continue to
reflect consumer caution. "We expect a better performance in the fourth
quarter, but the core problems for the economy - bust banks and a massively
overleveraged consumer - have not gone away," says Ian Shepherdson, chief
economist at High Frequency Economics.
Source: Associated Press, Jeannine
Aversa |
Commercial Real Estate Forecast Uncertain
NAR, WASHINGTON
The recent deep economic downturn has had a pronounced impact on commercial real estate sectors, but credit availability is the big unknown that will determine how soon commercial markets recover, according to the National Association of Realtors®
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said some
initial movements earlier this week in commercial mortgage-backed securities
are encouraging. "The first commercial mortgage bond deal in over a year shows
the Federal Reserve's efforts to sell securities through the TALF program can
be fruitful, but the level of activity is well below what is required to
resuscitate the commercial market. Credit availability needs to significantly
rebound for any hope of a meaningful commercial recovery in 2010." Read more....
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 Foreclosure Plague Slowing: Filings Fall 8%
Foreclosure filings fell by 8% in November, making it the fourth consecutive month of improvement in the housing market.
-cnn money.com
There were 306,627 filings last month, according to RealtyTrac, an online marketer of foreclosed properties. That decline follows a 3% drop in October, 4% in September and 1% in August.
"Loan modifications and other foreclosure prevention efforts, along with the recently extended and expanded homebuyer tax credit, are keeping a lid on the most visible symptoms of the nation's ailing housing market - foreclosures and home value depreciation," RealtyTrac CEO James Saccacio said in a prepared statement. Read more...
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Optimistic Commercial Real Estate Recovery
Commercial real estate on shaky foundation, but experts don't see it derailing the economy
Optimism about a national economic recovery, fueled by rising stock prices and an improved residential real estate market, is tempered by the widespread belief that a raft of commercial real estate loan defaults is just round the corner.
Fears of a commercial real estate mortgage meltdown are bolstered by persistent unemployment, which has led to office and retail vacancies, rising commercial loan default rates and hundreds of bank failures.Read more...
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Happy 2010 from Latitude, Inc.!
In the spirit of the Holiday Season, Latitude, Inc. celebrated by volunteering, as a team, at The Unity Shoppe, a local non-profit that encourages self-sufficiency and independence by providing education and the necessities of life to families, children, seniors and persons with disabilities during periodic times of crisis. These necessities of life to families, children, seniors and persons with disabilities during periodic times of crisis. These necessities are provided in a dignified manner without regard to political affiliation, religious belief or ethnic identity.
We wish you Healthy and Prosperous 2010!
-Rick, Barbara, Carly, Myra, Jim and Vikki (now an affiliate broker)
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Latitude, inc. is a full service commercial real estate company, headquartered in Santa Barbara, on California's Central Coast. While its brokerage and development services are focused on California's Central Coast, Latitude's management and investment expertise have expanded its geographical reach with experience throughout the Western United States.
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