Greetings!
Here is your newsletter for July 2010, including a market update and an amusing story about the power of compounded interest, and of patience.
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The Eighth Wonder of the World
(From the Los Angeles Times, March 6, 2010.)
Like many people who lived through the Depression, Grace Groner was exceptionally restrained with her money. She got her clothes from rummage sales, walked rather than buy a car, and her one-bedroom house in Lake Forest, Ill., held little more than a few plain pieces of furniture, some mismatched dishes and an old television. Her one splurge was a small scholarship program she had created for Lake Forest College, her alma mater. She planned to contribute more upon her death, and when she died in January at 100, her attorney informed the college president that the gift had added up.
"Oh, my God," the president said.
Groner's estate, which stemmed from a $180 stock purchase she made in 1935, was worth $7 million. The money is going into a foundation that will allow many of Lake Forest's 1,300 students to pursue internships and study-abroad programs.
"She could have lived in any house in Lake Forest, but she chose not to," said William Marlatt, her attorney and longtime friend. "She enjoyed other people, and every friend she had was a friend for who she was. They weren't friends for what she had."
Groner was born in a small Illinois farming community, but by the time she was 12 both of her parents had died. She and her twin sister, Gladys, were taken in by George Anderson, a member of one of Lake Forest's leading families. The Andersons raised the girls and paid for them to attend Lake Forest College. After Groner graduated in 1931, she took a job at nearby Abbott Laboratories, where she worked as a secretary for 43 years.
In 1935 she bought three $60 shares of specially issued Abbott stock and never sold them. The shares split many times over the years, Marlatt said, and Groner reinvested the dividends. Long before she died, her initial outlay had become a fortune. Marlatt was one of the few who knew about it. Lake Forest, just north of Chicago, is one of America's richest towns, filled with grand estates and luxury cars, yet Groner felt no urge to keep up with the neighbors. She lived in an apartment for many years before a friend willed her a tiny house in a part of town once reserved for the servants. Its living room was smaller than many Lake Forest closets.
Though Groner was frugal, she was no miser. She traveled widely upon her retirement and occasionally funneled anonymous gifts through Marlatt to needy local residents. Groner never married or had children, but she had a gregarious personality and plenty of friends. She remained connected to the college, attending football games and donating $180,000 to create the scholarship program.
But Groner was interested in doing more, so two years ago she set up a foundation to receive her estate. The foundation's millions should generate more than $300,000 a year for the college. She left her house to the college too, and it will be turned into living quarters for women who receive foundation scholarships. It will be called, with fitting simplicity, "Grace's Cottage."
- John Keilman, L.A. Times
The story above offers three important investment lessons:
First, compound interest is a wondrous thing over long periods. Transforming $180 into $7 million over 75 years requires an annualized return of 15.13%. By comparison, a similar investment in one month U.S. Treasury Bills grew to $3,046, $389,669 in the S&P 500 Index, and $10,435,007 in US small cap value stocks. (Annualized returns were 3.84%, 10.78% and 15.75%, respectively.) Over the long run, a little extra return goes a long way.
Second, maintaining an investment strategy requires discipline, detachment, or some combination of both. Ms. Groner had ample reason over seventy-five years to question the wisdom of holding Abbott shares, and by extension equity investments of any kind. The shares lost roughly one-third of their value in the bear market of 1937 for example, and did not exceed the mid-$50 share price of March 1937 until March 1944. She continued to hold her shares despite plunging stock prices in 1962, 1970, 1974, 1982, 1987, 1990, 2002, and 2008.
Third, could you recognize a great growth stock even if you owned it? It could be harder than you think. The most striking characteristic of Abbott's share price behavior over the past seventy-five years is how long periods of trendless or below average performance are punctuated by brief episodes of sensational results. As an example, the 1950s were a rewarding decade for equity investors, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average more than tripled in value. But Abbott shares rose only 22.7%. How many of us would have had the patience to continue reinvesting dividends into an "obvious" loser after such a long drought?
To paraphrase Albert Einstein, "Compounded interest may truly be the Eighth Wonder of the World."
And to paraphrase Josiah Gilbert Holland, "That which grows fast, withers; that which grows slowly, endures.
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Market Update and Commentary
Amidst a spotty recovery, shaky economy, a bland jobs outlook and disappointing housing news, the market was hit hard again in the second quarter with the S&P 500 losing 12%, NASDAQ dropping 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average shedding 10% for the quarter.
Investors who pay close attention to daily headlines about the financial markets could be excused for thinking the world is coming to an end. But there's another side to this story.
To be sure, concerns about sovereign debt and public sector damage wrought by the financial crisis of 2008 are very real. But markets have a way of working through these risks.
In the meanwhile, it is worth reflecting on the fact that securities markets and the real economy are two different things. This was expertly illustrated when, seemingly against all logic, the S&P 500 soared over 80% in 13 months from it's previous lows during a period of extreme economic uncertainty. Sentiment is one thing and reality is another, and the current economic situation may not as bad as the financial headlines portend.
Despite the fact that the stock market has "corrected" in the second quarter, there is some encouraging news coming from abroad: in its twice-yearly report on the global economy released in late May, the Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said the world economy is recovering faster than expected from recession.1 The OECD, which brings together 31 developed economies, lifted its projections for global economic growth to 4.6 per cent in 2010 and to 4.5 per cent in 2011. In their previous report released in November, its growth assumptions were 3.4 percent and 3.7 percent respectively.
Interestingly, the new projections are higher than the average annual rate of growth the global economy registered in the decade before the crisis.
It should be noted that the organization did point to risks around these growth forecasts, particularly from instability in sovereign debt markets and what some would describe as overheating emerging markets. But the overall message was one of cautious optimism. Unemployment looks to have peaked (in their view), international trade flows are rising again and many governments are beginning to repair their fiscal positions. While this may turn out to be overly-optimistic forecasting, and while Europe and the U.S. are certainly not out of the woods, the Asia-Pacific region is strong and Latin America has emerged from the global crisis in relatively good shape, a fact noted recently by the International Monetary Fund in praising policy reform there.2
On the policy front, the IMF has expressed confidence in the recovery thanks to unprecedented cooperation in the international community since the crisis began. However, IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn recently remarked: "One must not forget... that the US consumer is currently the engine of worldwide growth, so you can't find a solution to the problem overnight. It is a lengthy process that will only take place gradually."
For Milestone clients with globally-diversified portfolios, balanced as they are between stocks of different classes, bonds of varying maturity and cash for the purpose of prudent reserve, the takeaway is what you might expect: financial markets are fairly efficient in accommodating bad news, and as the economy continues to recover - though fears have been fanned of a second half slow down - and as unemployment peaks and begins to show signs of steady improvement, the markets will be equally efficient in accommodating the good news.
1. 'OECD Economic Outlook', May 2010 2. 'Latin America Helps Shape Global Economic Recovery', IMF Survey, May 2010
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Milestone Financial Advisors, LLC
Ten Key Portfolio Considerations: |
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- Reduce Expenses
- Diversify Systematically
- Seek to Reduce Taxes
- Think Long Term
- Maintain Discipline
- Maintain Prudent Cash Reserve
- Own Low Cost Funds
- Maintain Asset Allocation
- Add to Portfolio Systematically
- Connect Goals to Investments
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