Most of you have already read the
details of AT&T's pricing announcement of last week. There are some clear advantages and
disadvantages of the new approach. On the plus side, AT&T has:
- Lowered
the entry price for wireless data, thus opening up important new
market
segments and making data more affordable at the low end;
- Developed
a more favorable price point ($14.95) to add additional
devices/users for
data services, which I think will be especially important for
households
and families; and
- Set
the tone for greater awareness among users of how much data they
are
consuming, the undercurrent being that even with all these
fantastic
devices, wireless economics are different from fixed broadband
economics. Those who are concerned about overage will think more proactively about using WiFi where available.
This is a good start, and is the opening
salvo in what is
sure to be a new wave of pricing activity in the industry over the
coming
months. But now that we're headed down this road, I do have some thoughts on what could be done differently. Here are some thoughts:
Plan Optimization.
AT&T is trying to keep it simple, with its approach of adding 200 MB
in $15
increments for those subscribing to the $14.95 plan. However, 200 MB
plan users
who go over their allotment are then paying $30 for 400 MB
total, compared to
$25 for 2 GB for those on that plan. The $15 for an extra 200 MB makes even less sense
(and
looks like gouging) when 2 GB plan users only have to pay $10 for an
additional 1 GB.
AT&T would argue that those who
consistently exceed the
200 MB limit should upgrade to the 2 GB plan. I'd like to see the option
for
what I call "plan optimization": go over the 200 MB limit, and you can
choose
to upgrade to the 2 GB plan for that month - which can then either
continue
permanently or revert back to the plan. This would give AT&T greater
opportunity to upgrade users on a more proactive basis, rather than
upset them
over constant overage of the relatively paltry 200 MB increments.
Very heavy users will pay a lot more
than they do today. 5GB
of iPhone usage (an unlikely number) will cost $60 -- the same,
ironically, as
its DataConnect 5 GB broadband plan.
Buckets of Shared Megabytes. Wireless data pricing, whether flat rate
or usage-based, is still
principally based on a per-device, per-subscriber approach. But the
average
individual/household owns multiple devices, with varying data
requirements and usage scenarios. Wireless operators in the U.S.
have
been hugely successful with family/group plans for voice. Why not take
the same
approach for data? As the master account holder, I would buy a "bucket"
of MB
(or likely GB), which could then be shared across multiple members and
devices
in my household. This would be great for additional household members,
as well
as for devices with different usage profiles. A smartphone is going to
have a
more persistent need to connect to the cellular network; but devices
like the
iPad, portable gaming device, or even a laptop might have more
infrequent,
occasional, cellular connectivity needs.
Allow Multiple Devices to Connect. As a corollary to the "bucket" plan
approach, I
don't believe users should have to make individual data plan decisions
for each
and every wireless-enabled device they own. A broadband subscription can
be
shared across devices, and an iTunes service can be shared across
multiple PCs.
Operators have gone "half-way" with cellular data, allowing other
devices to
draft off a primary device (or MiFi) using WiFi. I'd like to users
be given the ability to authorize up to a certain number of devices that can share in a data
plan.
A side benefit of this is greater stickiness to a carrier's data
service, since
there would be less incentive to shop around for a lower, or prepaid
plan from
another operator for a device with less need for a persistent cellular
connection.
What About Broadband?
The plans AT&T announced last week were aimed at smartphones. Lens
readers know I have long been advocating for lower, more flexible price
points
for mobile broadband from laptops. T-Mobile and Metro PCS have led the
way with
lower prices, and there are some good prepaid options (per
day/week/month) from
Virgin Mobile and Verizon Wireless. But with the delta shrinking between
computing device and phone device, and products such as the iPad that
are
in-between, I believe having a separate, significantly premium-priced mobile broadband
offering
makes less sense.
AT&T's broadband plans now look
downright wacky. 200 MB
for iPhone users costs $15, but it costs $35 for laptop users. Huh?
Start Thinking Anew About Voice and
Text. Messaging has been a cash
cow. Text plans remain
incremental to wireless data subscriptions in most cases. Lines are
blurring,
however, between messaging of various forms - voice, e-mail, text, IM,
and
social networks. Today's user accesses Facebook, Twitter, or LinkedIn
via their
data account, but must pay extra for SMS and MMS. There will be tension
around this
as users add multiple devices to the network, as smartphone adoption
flows down
to the younger, text-centric segment of the market, and as
users/households
start really examining their total monthly spend.
It is time to start thinking about
how legacy messaging
and voice plans are going to be "sunsetted", in a 4G, "everything is IP", multi messaging platform
world.
The subscriber relationship will be less about discrete services
(voice-messaging-data) and more about a "connectivity" plan that is
shared
across multiple devices and users. This will require tough decisions
around
legacy - and highly profitable - plans.
Make Some Moves in the Enterprise. Enterprise pricing has not changed
markedly over
the past three years. While this segment remains higher margin, I do
believe
two moves are needed. First, mobile broadband pricing needs to be
adjusted, and
to be more in line with smartphone pricing, especially since tethering
options
have expanded. There should also be more prevalent plans that provide
some
pricing flexibility for occasional/infrequent users who represent the
next
phase of growth for the market.
Customer Education.
I'll have more to say about this in a future Lens. But
with the
dawn of usage pricing, operators have an interesting challenge with
regards to
customer education. AT&T has developed the right "early warning"
tools to
protect consumers (and themselves) from bill shock. However, truly
understanding
data consumption is tricky. Sometimes it is obvious, such as downloading
TV
program from iTunes. But there's murky ground with respect to:
- Embedded
content. It's one thing to go to YouTube...and another to play
embedded
content within an app, such as a video clip on CNN.
- Apps
requiring persistent connectivity. A good example here is
applications
using location services, such as navigation. Also, it's not always
clear
when one is actually "connected" to the network. Does my RunKeeper
app
stay constantly connected, for example? And what about integrated
messaging services that are constantly sending information to and
from
Facebook, Twitter, and the like?
- Over
the air synchronization. More and more services are using over the
air
synchronization, for example managing e-mail, contacts, and
calendar using
the "cloud" such as Gmail and MobileMe.
- Advertising. Ads to count against the data buckets. It's not an issue right now given current consumption patterns - but with more sophisticated, multimedia ads being developed for mobile, we'll have to keep our eye on this.
The operators have developed some
reasonably good tools:
AT&T has usage scenarios and a pretty nifty "Usage calculator", which shows how moderate usage of anything multimedia
gets you
to 2 GB pretty fast. The more troublesome area to predict consumption is
with
apps requiring more persistent connectivity, as stated above, and the
issue
that the customer is not always in control of their data consumption, such as when they are sent large files,
attachments, video ads, and so on.
Operators need to make these tools
prominent, especially via
collateral, at the "My Account" site, and at point of sale. I would also
recommend adding more functionality to the "early warning system" For
example,
inform users of high-usage apps; warn them if a file they are about to
download
is above a certain size; or recommend for certain downloads that they
use WiFi.
At point of sale, or when signing up for data service, there can be an
option
for users to opt in to this early warning system, similar to what they
do now
for privacy settings.
Conclusion
It will be interesting to see what other
operators do. I
believe Sprint and T-Mobile will stick with aggressive "unlimited"
plans, to maintain competitive advantage in the marketplace. Plus, their data
networks
are less taxed at the present time. For Verizon, which has intimated it
will
migrate to usage-based pricing, the question is whether it will take the
"airline" approach of mimicking AT&T's plan or whether it might do
something a little different. I'd bet on the latter.