Since this is the first Lens in some time, I am going "big picture".  This is one of the most exciting - and perilous - times in the history of the wireless industry.  We're seeing major shifts in the balance of power and business model transformation, at a time of financial precariousness for the some of the industry's historic heavyweights and uncertainty about the economy.  Here are five key themes that I believe will define the evolution of the wireless industry over the next few years.  I will be commenting much more on these topics in the coming months. 

The first key theme is the growing need for what I call "connectivity ubiquity". If you look at the evolution of the Internet over the past three years, two game-changing things have happened.  First is the pervasiveness of broadband (70% of HH with PCs, even more in other countries).  Have you noticed how many aspects of our day-to-day lives involve the Internet in some way?  Second is the nearly threefold increase in throughput to the average user, which has enabled the emergence of entirely new use categories such as social networking and UGC. 

This is a good news/bad news story for wireless.  On the positive side, wireless will be an important part of the need for constant connectivity.  We'll see continued robust growth of laptop cards and data subscriptions.  On the negative side, even with continual network "upgrades" (Rev-A, HSUPA), and the approach of 4G, wireless will continue to have to compromise on the network side, from the standpoint of user expectations and RF economics.  My rule of thumb: wireless will continue to be a generation or more behind fixed-line broadband.  To illustrate this point, today's 3G networks are fine for "remote access", which was the overriding market requirement - three years ago.  But it's inadequate for many of the multimedia applications becoming more prevalent today.  This fact of life will be a continual governor of what we can offer customers, how we price our services, and what expectations we can set.  Don't expect to see "broadband displacement" on the same scale as "landline displacement".

Second, the game has shifted in the handset space.  Other than more memory and better battery life, we're starting to max out on the core capabilities we can offer on a standard cellphone (witness the growth in smart phones as a percentage of sales).  The game is now centered around providing a better user experience.  The iPhone is a catalyst, but it's certainly not nirvana.  There's lots of opportunity for more, and better. The traditional governors of the UI - operators and device OEMs - are finding themselves out their element.  Note that the wireless devices with the best overall user experience - the iPhone, the Sidekick, and the Blackberry  - are delivered with a tight integration of hardware and software, and have intimate linkages with the user's PC world.  Expect some game-changing relationships and thinking over the next couple of years.  Et tu, Motorola?

Third:  Business model transformation, led by the discussion of "open access".  There were some important chess moves in 2007:  Android, iPhone, VZW "Any App, Any Device" announcement, and the 700 MHz C-block.  Over the next three years, the mobile value chain will undergo its biggest changes in the history of this industry.  Let me say this about open access: it is not a zero sum game.  Major operators want to remain relevant in the content game, and will continue to offer marquee, premium content and applications to their subscribers and the benefits of a more complete service experience.  But they have also realized that the Internet is ten years beyond its AOL era and that power is in the hands of the user.  Even the large operators have relatively small teams devoted to individual products and content.  They have realized they can no longer optimize the potential of the wireless Internet by being at the center of every application decision, nor can they provide the most effective "go to market" for all but the big hitters.  The struggle will be to strike the right balance between a more open model, and avoiding the three principal "dangers" the PC/Internet model poses to the wireless world:  poor security, inappropriate content, and the customer service morass.  All while recognizing the economics of wireless will continue to be different than the Internet.

The fourth theme, which has been abundantly illustrated in the events of the past few weeks, is that pricing is back.  We had been in a steady state for about three years.  But with voice MOU growth plateauing, subscriber penetration maturing, and such a large percentage of subs on family plans, a new trick is needed.  Operators are moving away from a la carte offerings ($5 for this, $10 for that) toward what I call "large group ARPU lift".  The first phase of this was family plans, which focused on household ARPU and has been a huge factor in lowering churn.  The next phase, which we are now in the midst of, is "premium unlimited" plans, such as the $20 data plans for unlimited messaging and browsing and the unlimited voice plans, such as the $99 plan recently announced by Verizon Wireless and matched by AT&T and T-Mobile.  That brings the wireless business into the same "flat rate" framework that consumers are have become accustomed to in other segments of their digital universe.  But while we are moving toward unlimited voice, there will be hhesitancy to do anything especially disruptive with data pricing.  It still costs hundreds of times more to deliver a MB of data wirelessly compared to wireline.  The next couple of years will also feature a greater role for advertising, which will likely invite some level of "value exchange".  Greater involvement by Google and Microsoft in the industry will push the envelope here.  Also part of this next phase will be how pricing for off-portal is handled.

The final theme is that the overall growth of the wireless industry over the next several years will be driven by "two worlds".  One world is that of developed wireless economies, where voice ARPU and subscriber penetration have plateaued.  Growth opportunities are increasingly focused on non-voice services.  In developing countries, however, there are still huge opportunities for organic subscriber growth.  Hundreds of millions - if not billions - of subscribers will never experience a landline phone.  And for many, their wireless phone will also be their primary data/Internet access device.  The best companies will mine those opportunities while adjusting to vastly varying demographics and levels of affordability.