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January 14, 2010
Special Client Bulletin

South-Central Haiti Devastated Earthquake and Epicenter

South-central Haiti is completely devastated in the aftermath of a magnitude 7.0 earthquake that shook the region at 1653 Jan. 12. Large portions of the capital city Port-au-Prince, Petionville, Carrefour and the southern tourist city of Jacmel have been completely destroyed. Similar damage is likely in the approximately two dozen smaller towns in the area, many of which remain completely cut off due to blocked roads and downed communication lines. The destruction is catastrophic - entire neighborhoods have been reduced to rubble, nearly all basic infrastructure has collapsed and tens of thousands of people are dead, missing or wounded.

Nearly 48 hours after the initial quake, the scene on the ground remains chaotic, with no authority fully able to take charge. Both the Haitian government and the UN mission stationed in Haiti have suffered heavy losses, including the collapse of the UN headquarters and the death of UN mission chief Hedi Annabi. The US Embassy is operational, with five diesel generators providing power to the mission. About 3,000 UN troops have been organized and are patrolling the streets, but these troops are stretched thin across the massive disaster zone. Relief workers have begun arriving, but are limited in their effectiveness by the inaccessibility of many areas, the lack of communication capabilities and the lack operational facilities in which to aid victims.

Aftershocks are continuing in Haiti, increasing the risk of additional building collapses and panic among Haitian citizens. Hundreds of buildings have already crumbled or suffered heavy damage, including schools, hospitals, businesses, hotels, aid centers, diplomatic facilities, government buildings and local jails. The Presidential Palace, World Bank offices in Petionville and the French Embassy have been completely destroyed. Hotel Montana, Christopher Hotel and Castel Haiti have also been devastated; reports indicate that the Karibe Hotel in Petionville and Hotel Oloffson in Port-au-Prince sustained only limited damage and are currently housing refugees. The lack of secure infrastructure has left most quake victims without shelter.

Humanitarian Concerns
A final casualty toll is not likely for weeks, as workers continuing searching through the rubble. Prime Minister Jean-Max Bellerive said the final toll could reach well over 100,000 people, while President Rene Preval said 50,000 people could be dead. Meanwhile, international aid groups predict that up to 3 million people will likely need assistance. Estimates vary widely, with a lack of data to back them up at this time. Regardless of the total death toll, the situation in Port- au-Prince and surrounding areas is clearly a humanitarian disaster.

Search and rescue operations are ongoing, but remain hindered by a lack of electricity that is preventing nighttime searches; clogged roadways and a lack of machinery to clear heavy debris are causing additional delays. Though international relief teams are bringing heavy lifting gear, it will take time to move them to where they are needed. Most roads are clogged with debris and the bodies of victims, as well as survivors who have no place to go or who are afraid to go inside until the tremors cease. The jammed roads will hinder both rescue operations and the transport of crucial aid.

A lack of communications in Haiti has made it difficult to ascertain the condition of medical facilities in Port- au-Prince and the surrounding area. Reports vary widely, with some claiming that all of the hospitals have collapsed and others maintaining that at least two medical facilities remain operational - the Hopital de La Communaute Haitienne in Freres and the Argentine Mobile Medical Hospital. Attempts to contact medical facilities have been unsuccessful. International aid group Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) has confirmed that all three of its facilities in Port-au-Prince are non-operational. MSF workers have set up tent hospitals and are treating the wounded as they can, but lack the capability to fully tend to severe trauma or surgery cases. A lack of relief workers is also hindering medical care, as many doctors and nurses were likely killed or injured in the quake. A number of countries are sending supplies to set up field hospitals and ships capable of providing medical assistance, but it will likely take several days for these resources to arrive and become fully established.

The sheer number of people requiring assistance is also exhausting current aid capabilities. Food, water and basic medical supplies are in short supply. There is no way to transport many of the injured to the makeshift medical facilities that are struggling to operate. The lack of aid workers translates into slow treatment for those who manage to make it to these facilities; injured are often forced to wait for hours or days. Those who are able are trying to cross the border to the Dominican Republic (DR), but this is not an option for most of the wounded.

The high number of dead is another concern. Currently, thousands of bodies are laid in the streets, inside and outside of hospitals or at any other convenient location. Haiti has nowhere near the number of body bags needed to contain the dead and no designated site to bury them at this time. The presence of dead bodies, in addition to a lack of clean water, has prompted rising fears about the increased spread of infectious diseases.

Medical relief efforts will be further hampered by the fact that government agencies and international organizations charged with helping coordinate assistance operations in Haiti have also been shattered by the quake. Many arriving aid groups will struggle to set up operations in the city, with no clear organization or communication capable between the various groups. The poor infrastructure may make it necessary for some aid groups to set up camp in neighboring DR, likely further slowing relief efforts. iJET has confirmed that as of 1400 Jan. 14, vehicular traffic is moving across the DR-Haiti border into Haiti; however, it has not been confirmed if traffic is moving out of Haiti into the DR. Those enter Haiti via road might need to seek alternative routes back to the DR.

Infrastructure
Much of Haiti's infrastructure in the Port-au-Prince region has been severely damaged or destroyed. Toussaint Louverture International Airport (PAP) suffered damage to a control tower, but runways are clear for flights. A US military contingent, in cooperation with some UN forces, has secured the airport facilities. US military and aviation personnel have since repaired the damaged tower, allowing round-the-clock airport capabilities. The US Embassy is evacuating US citizens through PAP to Santo Domingo, DR, and points in the US. Embassy officials are requesting US citizens do not go to the airport, but wait until they are contacted. US citizens wishing to be evacuated may email acspap@state.gov. US officials will require those being evacuated to present a valid passport and sign a promissory note for the cost of the evacuation flight.

Flight capabilities remain limited by a lack of fuel, cargo-handling capabilities and runway space for arriving aircraft. The Haitian government was forced to temporarily suspend flights on Jan. 14 because ramp space at PAP was full and there was no available fuel. A lack of airport workers has also made it difficult for planes to unload supplies on arrival. Flights may be forced to divert to the DR and transport supplies and personnel by land. Meanwhile, all commercial flights have been canceled until further notice. Most airlines remain unsure as to when normal flight operations will resume. Helicopter appears to be the sure means of transport in and out of Haiti at this time. However, landing space is extremely limited. Those traveling by helicopter should also be aware that they may be mobbed upon landing by victims thinking they are aid workers.

Though the airport is now operational, the main road between PAP and Port-au-Prince remains clogged with debris. UN workers are moving to clear the debris, but streets remain clogged across the region, hindering the transport of goods and aid workers. Regional roads to Jacmel and other smaller towns that are also likely in dire need of supplies also remain blocked, isolating these areas from outside assistance in the short-term. Further, Haiti is beginning to experience gasoline shortages, necessitating aid workers to transport such supplies with them.

Port-au-Prince's main seaport was heavily damaged in the quake, making assistance via sea extremely difficult. Most docks are closed and the port's only operational cargo crane is now submerged. Authorities are also concerned about possible debris in the water. While at least one ship is set to arrive and serve as a floating hospital, it remains unclear where the ship will anchor and how the injured will be transported to and from the facility, as roadways to the port are currently impassible.

Nearly all of Port-au-Prince's basic utility services are down in the quake aftermath. Municipal water supplies have been cut off to Port-au-Prince, leaving the victims, medical workers and aid personnel without clean water. Electricity is not working in most areas, hampering efforts to rescue and treat the injured. Communications remain spotty throughout the region. Initially after the quake, nearly all land, cellular and satellite phone lines failed, though some had reportedly been restored as of Jan. 14. Social networking and text messaging services largely remain functional and have provided an alternate form of communication for those who have access.

Security Concerns
Port-au-Prince was riddled with high crime prior to the quake and the security situation is likely to worsen significantly in the coming days. Reports of looting emerged almost immediately after the quake, with individuals targeting grocery stores, markets and hotels. Extensive damage to local jails and prisons freed a number of convicted criminals, possibly providing leadership to makeshift criminal groups that are likely to form among victims desperate to obtain supplies. Riots, looting and robberies are particularly likely when aid supplies begin arriving. Individuals seeking aid cargo have targeted distribution centers and caravans in the past. Attacks against these targets may prompt some aid organizations to base their operations out of the DR.

Some security personnel remain active in Haiti but are not able to meet all of the demands. Approximately 3,000 UN peacekeepers have been deployed, but are facing a variety of tasks, including rescuing individuals and clearing blocked streets. The few available security personnel will likely move to contain any mass unrest or major attacks against aid groups, but will probably ignore small cases of looting due to a lack of resources.

The security situation has been made worse by the destruction of numerous symbols of authority - such as police stations, the UN headquarters and government buildings - and the death of individuals who may have been able to inspire some calm, including UN chief Hedi Annabi and the archbishop of Port-au-Prince, Monsignor Serge Miot. Rescue operations are still underway at the UN headquarters, and it remains unclear how many troops have been killed, wounded or are still missing. Haitian police were stretched thin before the disaster and likely also faced casualties, minimizing their ability to respond.

Long-Term Concerns
The earthquake is likely to have significant long-term implications for Haiti. Violent unrest and crime may increase significantly in the wake of the quake. Business operations are not likely to fully resume in the area for months, if not years. Necessary infrastructure will likely be repaired in the short-term to essential sites, but infrastructure will likely remain crippled in many of the more impoverished areas. The quake will also have significant implications in the political sphere, coming as it did ahead of legislative elections scheduled for February. iJET will explore these topics more fully in the February issue of its Monthly Intelligence Forecast.

iJET resources are on the ground in Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Please call 877-606-IJET (4538) or 443-716-2419 for assistance if you do not currently have a dedicated WC24 hotline.

This information is copyrighted material owned by iJET International, Inc. and shall not be reproduced or redistributed in any form unless expressly permitted by iJET. All rights reserved. Please contact iJET Customer Service at 1-877-606-4538 with comments and reprint inquires.

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