Peak oil is a commonly discussed scenario these days. Experts differ in how close we are to reaching this state but they all agree that it's in our future - the point when the flow of oil has reached its maximum level and supplies begin to decline. By comparison, peak water and peak food are less prominently discussed but also looming, with potentially far-reaching consequences.
 

Peak water - lack of availability of clean, fresh water in significant regions of the world - may be 30 to 40 years away, but peak oil and peak food - a shortage of available food staples - are only five to 20 years into the future according to some experts. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations recently raised concerns about a food crisis after reporting that its food price index had hit a historic high in December.

These events will be driven by several key factors. Our global population is on track to reach 9.1 billion people by 2050 from about 6.8 billion in 2010, leading the FAO to estimate we will need a 70 per cent increase in world food production. At the same time, some experts are predicting a 20 per cent global reduction in crop production capacity due to the impacts of climate change on growing conditions.

Energy costs have been volatile in recent years, with oil reaching US $147/barrel in July 2008 only to tumble to US $37/barrel six months later in January 2009. Since that low point, it's been gradually rising again, currently valued at approximately US $90/barrel.

And the growing wealth in emerging economies means the addition of approximately one billion new middle class consumers in Asia over the next ten years, driving up the demand for popular consumer goods and energy.
 

Water scarcity is emerging as a real threat to food production and societal stability in some parts of the world, driven by climate change and, to some degree, mismanagement. Even in countries thought to be rich in water supplies, like Canada, water demand is driving a growing understanding of the need to improve how this resource is being managed. Water shortages are posing real problems in Australia, the south-western United States and some parts of Asia, affecting the way people live and work.

Agriculture and agri-food are significant users of water and other resources as part of the growth and production of food, but it's a sector that has opportunities to improve sustainability and improve efficiencies, says the President of Synthesis Agri-Food Network.

"I think that both general society and the agri-food industry are more than able to adapt to these huge challenges," says Rob Hannam. "Productivity increases are definitely needed and they're possible - but ongoing research and development in this area will be critical to making that happen."

The spectre of food and water scarcity is one that needs to be taken seriously by everyone, and while it represents a huge hurdle, it's not an insurmountable one, he says.

"The solutions are there. Agriculture can provide us with green, renewable fuel sources to lessen our dependence on fossil fuels," explains Hannam. "We can continue our work in developing crops and planting technologies that will reduce our water needs and adapt to increasingly stressful weather conditions."

Changes can also include a continued shift towards no-till crop production in order to reduce the direct energy inputs by farmers by lessening the number of times they must pass through a field, as well as the development of more modern and efficient engines for use in farm equipment.

"Agriculture is being asked to increase both food and energy production at a time when yield is becoming more volatile due to weather," he adds. "Much of our current focus is on energy, which is important, but soon it will also be water availability and usage, so we have to be prepared.

Insights - what do peak oil, peak food and peak water mean for agriculture and agri-food?

Production will shift - Agriculture production areas will shift to places where water is more available and where specific crops or livestock can be produced more efficiently, predicts Hannam. Areas with significant fresh water resources, like the Great Lakes Basin or Brazil, will benefit from this shift.

Increase water use efficiency - There are considerable opportunities in the area of water use where agriculture can continue to have an impact, such as water recycling in greenhouses and on-farm produce packing and processing operations, or improving irrigation efficiency through increased equipment accuracy and targeted application. And while agriculture is a significant user of water, it's important to note, says Hannam, that most of it stays in the local ecosystem, ready to be re-used.

Science is part of the solution - New agricultural production technology like crops that can survive drought, produce higher yields or offer health benefits will help feed the growing population without having to put more land into production. Sustainability programs will continue to expand in the agri-food sector, predicts Hannam, but there will be a growing need to document everything to show that resources are being used responsibly and sustainably.