.id insight September 2011

.id community monthly newsletter

September 2011

In This Issue

Construction and Finance powers Hills economy

Census Countdown

NZ Spotlight

Inside .id - We're getting social

How do populations grow and change?

Tips and Tricks - Quartiles

Affordable, desirable housing?

Quick Link

Greetings!

Demographic forecasting is the 'pointy end' of demographic work because the process of producing a robust forecast puts all your demographic knowledge to the test.

At university I was taught to produce high, medium and low forecast scenarios because the process of forecasting was very much a statistical exercise. When I became a 'practitioner' in the public sector I discovered that this approach produced confusion, often ending in bad coordination across government.

Why?

Because engineers always used the high forecasts to build the biggest pipeline and widest freeways because they hate to 'underestimate'; the planners use the medium forecasts because they are always so pragmatic; and the community development folk generally use the lowest because they are often put off by the recurrent cost implications of more 'bums on seats'.

At .id our forecasting approach is to produce a forecast of the most likely outcome at the time of publishing and then review the forecasts at least every 18 months or so. At least then all forecast users are working off the same set of assumptions.

Also .id's forecasts are more about storytelling and less about statistics.

Sincerely,

ivan-motley-id

Ivan

hill-shire

Focus on Local Government

Construction and Finance powering the Hills economy

The Hills Shire Council, in North-West Sydney, have recently subscribed to economy.id, our online economic profile. This profile shows the size and makeup of the economy and the workforce in The Hills, and how they are changing over time.

The Hills Shire (formerly knows as Baulkham Hills Shire) is one of Sydney's largest growth areas - read on to see what economy.id shows about their growth.

read more..

house sale Census Countdown

House sales are down - so are people moving house less often?

The Land Values Research Group, who have an economic blog which looks at things like monetary policy, taxation and housing investment, recently published an interesting article which said that dwelling turnover rate is at a 16 year low.

It shows that sales of dwellings across Australia are at their lowest rate since 1995. In 1995, house prices were depressed and didn't start to rise until about 1998, which was the beginning of the enormous rise in house values that we've seen over the past decade or so.

What does Census data show about the change to this point and what demographic impacts it may have?

read more..

NZ Spotlight

Spatial Planning - a new paradigm for planning in New Zealand?

Spatial Planning has a long tradition in the northern hemisphere; and it's likely to be widely adopted by local government in New Zealand - with Auckland Council about to publish its first Spatial Plan.

Spatial Planning is an approach to planning that co-ordinates policies and investment across agencies (private and public) to achieve common objectives for communities and activities in places of various geographies. It therefore requires understanding the role and function that cities are playing within their region and suburbs within their cities.

'Spatial Planning' can be a very effective way of planning for and investing in communities because it is a very direct approach to achieving outcomes at the local area level.

id office

inside .id

We're getting very social ...

Since Rebecca joined our team to help us navigate the world of social media we've been getting involved! We already deliver all of our information products online, so using social media is a natural extension.

We think it's a great way of letting the wider community know about all of the fantastic information about people and places that is held within the 500 demographic websites we've built for councils across Australia.

And it helps our council clients to spread the word to their community. So you can:

- access our Demographic Resource Centre
- follow us on Twitter for the latest population updates
- like us on Facebook and leave a comment on our wall (new)
- read our blog for interesting articles about cities and populations

- be part of our network on LinkedIn (new)

A word from our researchers

How do populations grow and change?

I'm not normally one of those people who bores their friends with detailed insights from my professional life, but during a recent dinner party conversation I felt the need to open up and provide a more professional opinion.

A good friend of mine asked me if it was true that 1,500 people were moving to Melbourne each week. Her use of the word "moving" was interesting - as a demographer it immediately translates to a migration in my mind.

Yet migration is not the only way that populations grow and change.

glenn_training Tips and Tricks

Quartiles - a technique for comparing incomes across time and place

Income data is one of the most important indicators of socio-economic status. One of the most useful analysis tools in profile.id (and also used in economy.id) are income quartiles. They enable you to compare incomes (or housing payments) over time, to see whether they are increasing or decreasing in your area relative to a benchmark.

Though relatively simple to calculate and even simpler to use, many users of .id's community profiles aren't aware that they are available. Read on to see how to use quartiles.

Final word

Affordable, desirable housing - how about a caravan?

Would ten million people in Australia live in a caravan park? That's right, about 50% of the total population. If so, we'd certainly need more caravan parks.

At present, less than 0.5% of Australia's population live in a caravan park - and the trend is actually decreasing.

As you may know, .id forecasts are developed using latest data, trends and local information to develop the most accurate assessment possible of future population characteristics.

However, in many cases other forecasts or "predictions" are found to be not nearly as accurate!

In 1935, a prediction was made about "trailer park" living in the USA - that by 1955 over half the population would be living in a caravan. (that would be almost 150m people today)

The outrageous prediction was made by Roger Babson - a statistician, entrepreneur and one-time US Presidential candidate.

What led him to make such a momentous overstatement?

Quick Contact

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info@id.com.au

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Victoria 3066, Australia