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September 2010
The PV Newsletter
Identifying Hot Markets for PV in 2011
 Results from our Live Webcast
Module Prices, Systems Returns & Identifying Hot Markets for PV in 2011

On September 3, Joe Berwind of Linx-AEI conducted a webinar entitled, Module Prices, Systems Returns & Identifying Hot Markets for PV in 2011. Here are the highlights of the Webcast:

Hot Market Identification
There are a number of levels to segment the returns data, and we chose to segment first by region.  The next most obvious way is to look at the change in excess returns. 

The Pull-In Effect
If a market is already generating acceptable returns and there is a subsidy cut known or anticipated on the horizon, the market can become hot temporarily as the installers rush to install the systems before the subsidy cuts to enjoy the existing higher returns.  We all know this as the Pull-in Effect

In the following graph, we identify the regions that generate the largest changes in excess demand, and thereby they become candidates to be or continue to be a hot market in 2011.

PV Markets

As we identified, candidates for hot markets are markets that generate higher returns thereby leading to more volume growth than other competing markets. Therefore, market growth can be misleading as the law of small numbers tells us.  There are, however, notable changes underway in the PV market place as follows:
  • China is emerging as a hot market with both fast growth and substantial volumes. We expect China to post significant growth in 2011 given the new nation-wide subsidy plan due for implementation.
  • Italy's market rate of growth next year is also off a significant base where subsidy changes and "pull-in" effects are driving the results as subsidies are set to fall.
  • The US is also a hot market widely anticipated by players everywhere, and this is just the beginning.  The US market has a fast growth rate and the dual attraction of becoming large and continuing to grow very fast.  Furthermore, we expect the SREC introduction in New York and California to push demand in the USA.
The chart below represents demand growth between July 2010 and July 2011:
PV growth
For a copy of the presentation, please contact Mike Corbett at 973.698.2331 or mcorbett@linx-consulting.com.

COMING SOON: Chemicals & Materials for Solar Cells and Modules 2011

Linx-AEI is pleased to announce we are initiating efforts on the fourth edition of our groundbreaking report - Chemicals and Materials for Solar Cells and Modules, 2011.  This report provides the most comprehensive perspective of the critical consumables used in cell, wafer and module production for all categories of flat plate photovoltaics. 

Critical to the success of this report is our unique understanding of the financial returns of various PV technologies (i.e. crystalline Si, CdTE, a-Si, tandem cell and CIS/CIGS) and how this can lead to the preferential growth of one technology over another and the resultant impact that this will have on consumables, based on the different BOMs of the various technologies.

As such, evolving financial returns, as illustrated below, will lead to an evolving mix and scale of cell technologies:


Solar IRR
 
For more information on Chemicals & Materials for Solar Cells & Modules - 2011, call 973.698.2331 or send us an email.
Upcoming Report
Chemicals and Materials for Solar Cells & Modules - 2011

For more information about Linx Reports, call 617.273.8837 or email us.
Linx can help you face industry challenges
Key future unknowns in the solar industry include:
 
What will be the impact of changes to the EEG in Germany?

What is the impact of China's industry support initiatives

What actions will be taken in the US?

How will the Polysilicon oversupply impact industry cost structure?

Who will be the winners and losers of the recent industry upheaval?
 
These are all tough questions.  Linx can help you answer these questions and more. Linx Reports  are designed to provide the critical insights and perspectives necessary to succeed.

If you don't find the information you're looking for in an existing report, Linx offers custom services and reports.

Learn more about Linx custom servcies.
Contact Linx
Linx Consulting
617.273.8837
linx-consulting.com

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