|The PV Newsletter|
Identifying Hot Markets for PV in 2011
| Results from our Live Webcast|
Module Prices, Systems Returns & Identifying Hot Markets for PV in 2011
On September 3, Joe Berwind of Linx-AEI conducted a webinar entitled, Module Prices, Systems Returns & Identifying Hot Markets for PV in 2011. Here are the highlights of the Webcast:
Hot Market Identification
There are a number of levels to segment the returns
data, and we chose to segment first by region. The next most obvious way is
to look at the change in excess returns.
The Pull-In Effect
If a market is already generating acceptable returns and there is a
subsidy cut known or anticipated on the horizon, the market can
become hot temporarily as the installers rush to install the systems before
the subsidy cuts to enjoy the existing higher returns. We all know this as the Pull-in Effect.
In the following graph, we identify
the regions that generate the largest changes in excess demand, and thereby
they become candidates to be or continue to be a hot market in 2011.
As we identified, candidates for hot markets are markets
that generate higher returns thereby leading to more volume growth than other
competing markets. Therefore, market growth can be misleading as the law of
small numbers tells us. There are,
however, notable changes underway in the PV market place as follows:
The chart below represents demand growth between July 2010
and July 2011:
- China is emerging as a hot market with
both fast growth and substantial volumes. We expect China to post significant growth in 2011
given the new nation-wide subsidy plan due for implementation.
market rate of growth next year is also off a significant base where subsidy changes and
"pull-in" effects are driving the results as subsidies are set to fall.
- The US is also a hot market widely
anticipated by players everywhere, and this is just the beginning. The US market has a fast growth rate and the dual attraction of becoming large and continuing to grow very
fast. Furthermore, we expect the SREC introduction in New York and California to push demand in the USA.
For a copy of the presentation, please contact Mike Corbett
at 973.698.2331 or firstname.lastname@example.org.
COMING SOON: Chemicals & Materials for Solar Cells and Modules 2011|
Linx-AEI is pleased to announce we are initiating efforts on
the fourth edition of our groundbreaking report - Chemicals and Materials for Solar Cells and Modules, 2011.
This report provides the most comprehensive perspective of the critical
consumables used in cell, wafer and module production for all categories of
flat plate photovoltaics.
to the success of this report is our unique understanding of the financial
returns of various PV technologies (i.e. crystalline Si, CdTE, a-Si, tandem
cell and CIS/CIGS) and how this can lead to the preferential growth of one
technology over another and the resultant impact that this will have on
consumables, based on the different BOMs of the various technologies.
As such, evolving financial returns, as illustrated below,
will lead to an evolving mix and scale of cell technologies: