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February 16, 2010
The PV Newsletter
Solar Demand Analysis
Linx Solar Forecasting Service

In this month's PV Newsletter, Linx-AEI Consulting is pleased to share insights from Module 1 of our new Solar Forecasting Service.  This quarterly service provides timely insights and analysis on the key issues that will impact industry evolution over the next several years. 

Specifically included in Module 1 of this service are:
  1. Forecasts on Demand by Cell Type
  2. Perspectives on Current and Future Module Supply
  3. Polysilicon Supply and Demand Analysis
  4. Forecasts for Chemicals and Materials used in Cells and Modules
More insights from the solar forecasting service are detailed later in this newsletter.

Along with this offering, we also have two other service modules geared around examining the performance of Cell and Module Producers and Grid Parity Analyses as well as the regional nature of the business.

Linx-AEI is pleased to announce that our recent work was referenced in papers at the recent Industry Strategy Symposium and Strategic Materials Conference in Half Moon Bay, CA. by industry leaders Applied Materials and DuPont.

For more information about the Solar Forecasting Service, call 617.273.8837 or email us at info@linx-consulting.com.
Demand by Cell Type - DRIVERS

Critical to developing our forecasts for demand by cell type, we must first understand LCOE and model energy cost sensitivity to module price reduction.  This allows us to identify the most competitive cell technologies that are closest to current mono-crystalline cell benchmarks in key PV markets around the globe.

The analysis shows that CIS and CdTe technologies lag the Monocrystalline energy cost by the smallest margin in Germany. At present Triple junction a-Si technology requires module cost reductions in excess of 60% to reach energy costs comparable with mono.
industry chart

For more information about the Solar Forecasting Service, call 617.273.8837 or email us at info@linx-consulting.com.
Polysilicon Supply and Demand

The current supply and demand situation for polysilicon will remain a critical indicator of future industry evolution.  With depressed poly pricing, crystalline silicon will remain the dominant technology, maintaining a competitive edge over many Thin Film alternatives. 

Critical to understanding this balance is analysis of the market dynamics of all uses of high purity polysilicon.  The share of solar polysilicon demand will increase to dominate the market and by 2012 the solar sector will be consuming 83% of polysilicon produced.  This raises critical strategic investment considerations for polysilicon suppliers and customers alike.


For more information about the Solar Forecasting Service, call 617.273.8837 or email us at info@linx-consulting.com.
Chemicals and Materials Forecasting

Linx-AEI has just published the third edition of CHEMICALS AND MATERIALS FOR SOLAR CELLS AND MODULES, 2010.  This groundbreaking report was the first analysis of the key consumables used in flat plate photovoltaics and has become established as the leading independent market forecast for suppliers participating in the PV supply chain.  Following is a sample of the level of detail in this report for major moduling materials:


For more information about Chemicals and Modules for Solar Cells & Modules, call 617.273.8837 or email us at info@linx-consulting.com.
As Industry Challenges Keep Mounting; Linx-AEI Offers Services to Help Our Clients Succeed

Key future unknowns in the Solar industry include:
  • What will be the impact of the upcoming election in Germany?
  • What is the impact of China's industry support initiatives?
  • What actions will be taken in the US?
  • How will the Polysilicon oversupply impact industry cost structure
  • Who will be the winners and losers of the recent industry upheaval?
These are all tough questions.  Our services are designed to provide the critical insights and perspectives necessary to succeed.  Linx-AEI offers services that cover  the following areas:

PV Custom Services

Linx Consulting also offers custom reports on the electronic materials industry. If you don't find exactly what you're looking for in a Linx report, we can design a custom report for your company to address your unique decision-making needs.

Call +1.617.273.8837 or +1.973.437.9517 or email us at info@linx-consulting.com for more information.
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