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This Time, It IS Different!
Is It Time To Short Gold?
Where You Shouldn't Invest
Clark Howard

   

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Letter Number 12     August 23, 2011 

For Quick Abstracts of Articles

Look for the bold blue print at the end of each article for a quick summary.  


This Time, It IS Different!

 

  Market Crash 

 

 

  

 

One of my favorite authors and financial analysts, Larry Swedroe, publishes frequent articles for Money Watch.  Read his full article by clicking on the photo to the left. 


On August 12 on he wrote "This Time, It Actually Is Different."  

 

As of today, August 23, we're still suffering from wild market swings with the VIX volatility index still quite high at over 40 (under 20 is considered normal). 

 

Isn't this similar to what we experienced in 2008?  Swedroe posits that rather than being a financial crisis, like those of the recent past, today's market wildness is not economic or financially driven. 

 

First of all, Swedroe claims US banks are in much stronger shape than 2008, having to raise sizable sums of capital as a result of government bailouts. 

 

Second, the TED spread, or the difference between the rate of Federal debt (or the rate that one-month Treasuries pay) and the rate banks charge each other is very small.  One month Treasuries are currently paying 0.02% and banks charge each other 0.20%.  The TED spread is thus 0.18%. At the height of the 2008 crisis, the spread was a whopping 4.5% with commercial paper virtually shut down and banks ready to fold.  The government actually had to provide guarantees on many bank's money market funds!

 

Sorry about the technical jargon, yet I know there are geeks out there that love the preceding.... 

 

Even after the S&P downgrade, there are no signs of bank liquidity problems. Commercial paper and interbank markets are functioning normally.

 

So what's causing the volatility?  Swedroe says politics: "The market just needs to be convinced that our elected officials will take the necessary steps to prevent the crisis from becoming an economic one.  It's the uncertainty about the political will to act that has caused the equity market to crash, not an economic crisis."

 

Swedroe then presents positive trends:

  • Japan is rapidly recovering from the disaster earlier in the year---a force that slowed worldwide economic growth through the second quarter of 2011.
  • Oil prices are down about 25% from May's high of almost $115 a barrel.
  • Municiple bonds, heralded to crash by now Meredith Whitney, are doing fine.

Swedroe doesn't provide solutions or a time-frame for current market woes, yet doesn't forecast the economic doom of 2008.

 

Dentist Bottom Line:    

 

Political upheaval and instability can create market chaos in the short-term.  

 

For any funds you will need in the next 5 years (college, weddings, etc.), most planners advise to keep safe with short-term Treasuries, money market funds, or laddered CDs.

 

For funds you will need in the next 5-10 years, you can be a bit more liberal, involving some equity funds, real estate funds, and possibly intermediate-term and corporate bond funds.  

 

For funds you will need in more than 10 years (retirement), a well diversified portfolio of US bond funds, US and international equities, and possibly REITs is still the safest bet. 

 

Time To Short Gold?

Gold Bullion


Todd Horwitz, Chief Strategist at Adam Mesh Trading Group sees an opportunity to make some fast money by shorting gold.  Watch this 5 minute August 18 video by clicking on the gold!

Dentist Bottom Line:  Man is gold controversial right now! I've never owned and don't intend to.  Yet I was suggesting dentists to bail when gold was at $1,100.  Commentators are all over the place with predictions, yet are almost universal in predicting that when it tops-out, a free-fall will ensue.

 

Where You Shouldn't Invest 

 

Sleazy Property Shark Greg Daugherty, retirement writer for Consumer Reports Money Advisor, wrote of four "iffy" investments in the August 2011 issue.

 

Daugherty claims, "Unfortunately, given today's sickly interest rates and volatile stock prices, many otherwise sensible people seem to be entertaining sales pitches they would have quickly hung up on in the past.  And they're all the more vulnerable when the seller offers soothing assurances of safety."

 

And no, the picture isn't of Daugherty.  It's of my slick ex brother-in-law. 

 

Promissory Notes

 

These are issued by companies and are often legitimate in the financial industry.  But not always. Often sold by insurance agents, who may not know of the fraud, but certainly of the high commission, the fraudulent products promise high interest rates with little or no risk. 

 

Scammers either make off with all your money quickly, or if running a Ponzi scheme, may pay interest for a while.  In any case, you lose all principle.

 

Gold

 

To hold some gold (not more than 5% is considered safe by financial planners) to diversify one's portfolio is fine.  But be careful how you buy!

 

Investing in a gold mutual fund with Fidelity or Vanguard is prudent.  Mining companies may also make sense.

 

Con artists often convince people to buy gold coins or bullion. Many want the safety of the real thing that you can actually possess in these troubling times!  But where to store it safely? That's where you get conned. The gold crooks will offer to store your "gold" for a small sum, usually somewhere you can't get to, such as Europe.  It may be quite some time before you find that there was never any gold purchased in the first place.

 

Structured Notes

 

These promise what private equity and hedge funds promoted in the aughts.  Structured notes are bond/derivative hybrids that guarantee you will receive some or all of your investment back, even if the underlying assets fall in value.  These have very high commissions, are extremely complex, and often have unspecified high risk.   

 

Equity Indexed Annuities

 

Ah, one of my favorites!  Supposedly, you receive a fixed, guaranteed rate of return with an additional return pegged to a given market index, such as the S&P 500.  That guaranteed rate of return is often four to five percent these days!  Where can one get that rate with guaranteed safety?  Nowhere!  And especially with these babies!

 

All sorts of reductions to your real return exist:

 

1. Participation rate: It allows you to recover a certain percentage of the index's gain, often 70%.

 

2. Index Rate Cap: You may have a limit of say 7% on any gain on your funds.  If the S&P 500 gained 25% in a year, you would only be eligible for 7% times that participation rate of 70%!   

 

3. Margin or Spread:  The index gain for many annuities is determined by subtracting a margin or spread.  This is often 3%.

 

Thus an S&P 500 return of 25% might be capped at 7%, reduced to 4.9% by the participation rate, then decreased down to 1.9% by the margin or spread.  As you can see, in good years for the stock market you would receive an intermediate US Treasury rate.

 

Dentist Bottom Line: If it seems too good to be true, it most likely is.  Be careful with the purchase of any insurance product.  Commissions and fees often outstrip any profit.  

 

Stop trying to beat the market!  And don't invest in only part of the market.  A 50/50 ratio of totally diversified stock and bond index funds gained 4% per year in the "lost decade!"  And with no changes made except for yearly rebalancing.   

 

Never invest in any product unless you are sure it's registered with your state and the seller is appropriately licensed.  

  

 

Clark Howard, Consumer Advocate Supreme

    

Clark Howard  

Ben Lund, editor of Dentaltown Magazine, introduced me to Clark Howard recently.  He is the Consumer Reports of the Internet.  Click on Clark's image to access his web site. 

 

All the information is easy to find and a real help.  A few examples of "Clark's Greatest Hits" are:

 

529 Guide

Car Accident Guide

Cheap Domain Registrations

Sample Consumer Complaint Letters

How HSAs Work

Identity Theft Guide

Records and File Keeping

Virus, Spyware, and Malware Protection Guide

 

Dentist Bottom Line:  Bookmark Clark's web site and take a look occasionally.  He has a fascinating array of common sense advice.

  

  

   

To access additional Carlsen Dentaltown Magazine articles, click on the image below.

Dentaltown 

To access the Newsletter archives, click on the image.

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