Bristlecone Value Partners, LLC
 
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Bristlecone Monthly News Digest
 
Greetings!

The chart below was put together by Tim Iacono, a contributor to seekingalpha.com earlier this year. It compares the total number of jobs in manufacturing, construction, mining, and agriculture with the government payroll as provided by the U.S. Dept. of Labor.


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The most noticeable conclusion is that growth in government jobs (90% of which are in state and local governments) has been steady throughout the period, irrespective of recessions, expansions, Republican or Democratic administrations. On the other hand, goods producing jobs are clearly more volatile and bear the brunt of economic cycles.

 

The second interesting point is that the peak in goods producing jobs came in the late 1970s. While the number fluctuated between 22 million and 25 million from the 1960s through about 2006, one can see the significant drop when the current recession began. Keep in mind though what's missing from the chart: service jobs in the private sector such as finance, insurance, tourism, software and consulting.  Jobs outside the two sectors shown on the chart make up the bulk--about 70%--of the overall employment picture.  Nonetheless, this chart provides a fascinating glance at America's workforce as it transitions towards a service economy and increasingly specializes in areas where it has competitive advantages.

 

This month, our articles explore peak oil and behavioral impact on investors' performance.


Bad Timing Eats Away at Investors' Returns
February 15, 2010 - Morningstar

Following up on last month subject, this article provides further evidence that not only the average investor fares worse than the market, but he or she also fares worse than the average fund in most categories. The reason? Poor timing decisions. The lessons: stick to your asset allocation, do not focus on short term returns, and rebalance regularly. >> Read the Article


Peak Oil: Who Wins, Who Loses? 
February 15, 2010 - Morningstar
In a two part article, Morningstar's analysts take an in-depth look at peak oil, what that term means, and whether in fact the world is running out of oil.  The second part reviews which companies and sectors are likely to be the winners and losers in the changing oil environment. >> Read the Article
 

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 February 2010
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