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The US stock market backed up last week as news of slowing retail sales dampened the enthusiasm of investors.  The total of nationwide retail and restaurant sales for April 2009 was $338 billion, down $38 billion from April 2008.  Nearly half of the falling sales total ($15 billion) did result from lower gasoline prices however, a benefit that may be short-lived as gas prices have climbed 24 cents a gallon in the last 2 weeks.  As the 20th trading week of 2009 begins today, the S&P 500 is down just 1.2% YTD on a total return basis (source: Commerce Department, BTN Research). 
 
The government spent $21 billion more than they collected in tax revenue last month.  This is unusual for our country given that April is traditionally the month that produces the largest inflow of tax receipts.  The last time we spent more than we collected during the month of April was in 1983 or 26 years ago.  Just 1 year ago (April 2008), tax receipts for the month exceeded outlays by $159 billion (source: Treasury Department). 
 
The Senate is expected to vote tomorrow on legislation to reform the credit card industry.  Americans paid an estimated $52 million a day last year in late fees charged by credit card companies (source: Senate).

1.  STOCKS AND RECESSIONS - The 2 best years ever on a total return basis for the S&P 500 took place in 1933 (up +53.9%) and 1954 (up +52.6%).  The USA was in a recession during the first 3 months of 1933 and during the first 5 months of 1954.  The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the US stock market (source: BTN Research).    
OVER THE NEXT YEAR - Since hitting a bear market closing low of 677 on 3/09/09 (i.e., 10 weeks ago today), the S&P 500 has gained +30.5% (not counting the impact of reinvested dividends).  The average gain of the S&P 500 for the 1-year following a bear market closing low for the 8 bear markets of the last 50 years is +36.5% (i.e., the current bear is the 9th bear market of the last half century).  The best 1-year return took place in 1982-83 following the 1981-82 bear market and produced a +58.3% gain (source: BTN Research). 
 
2.  ANOTHER INDEX - Since hitting a bear market closing low of 1269 on 3/09/09 (i.e., 10 weeks ago today), the NASDAQ Composite has gained +32.4% (not counting the impact of reinvested dividends).  The index begins trading today at 1680.  The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system (source: BTN Research).  
 
3.  WHY ISN'T EVERYONE DOING IT? - 75% of American workers have saved funds as of today for their future retirement.  15 years ago (1994), only 57% of workers had saved any money for retirement (source: Employee Benefit Research Institute).  
 
4.  THEY DON'T REALIZE - Even though the average US employer pays $777 per month on behalf of an employee for health insurance (assuming a family of 4 is covered), only 9% of employees think their employer is paying $500 or more per month for health insurance per employee (source: Kaiser Foundation, Kelton Research, USA Today).

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