Greetings!
As I speak to our wonderful clients, regardless of where we come from and where we want to go, some common themes include our limited time and our health. So often, we hear about the decline of the US and other English-speaking countries, both with our aging population and our declining health, particularly our obesity problems.
This week, let's turn the tables and not talk about our health in isolation. Let's compare it to the rest of the world. I think you might, as I do, come to the conclusion we are in a relatively good space.
In fact, a recent article did such a good job of reporting this that I'm just going to quote them at length: Joel Kotkin and Shashi Parulekar in the Winter 2012 issue of City Journal: (8)
"Between 1980 and 2010, the U.S., Canada, and Australia saw big population surges: the U.S.'s expanded by 75 million, to more than 300 million; Canada's nearly doubled, from 18 million to 34 million; and Australia's increased from 13 million to 22 million.
The U.S. now has 20 people aged 65 or older for every 100 of working age - only a slight change from 1985, when there were 18 for every 100. By 2030, the U.S. will have 33 seniors per 100 working Americans."
The negative way to look at this is that by 2030, 3 people will be working for every one person receiving a Social Security Benefit. But I digress. Let's get back to the article:
"Consider the numbers elsewhere. In the world's fourth-largest economy, Germany already has 33 elderly people for every 100 of working age - up from only 21 in 1985. By 2030, this figure will rise to 48, meaning that there will be barely two working Germans per retiree. The numbers are even worse in Japan, which currently has 35 seniors per 100 working-age people, a dramatic change from 1985, when the country had just 15. By 2030, the ratio is expected to rise to 53 per 100.
Meanwhile, the nation that so many point to as the twenty-first-century superpower, China, now has a fertility rate of 1.6, even lower than that of Western Europe. Over the next two decades, its ratio of workers to retirees is projected to rise from 11 to 23. Other countries, such as Brazil and Iran, face similar scenarios. These countries, without social safety nets of the kinds developed in Europe or Japan, may get old before they can get rich.
Between 2000 and 2050, for example, the U.S. workforce is projected to grow by 37 percent, while China's shrinks by 10 percent, the EU's decreases by 21 percent, and, most strikingly, Japan's falls by as much as 40 percent."
What do you think?