Greetings!
The U.S. economy remains almost comatose. The current slump already ranks as the longest period of sustained weakness since the Great Depression. Once-in-a-lifetime dislocations will take years to work out.
Among them: the job drought, the debt hangover, the defense-industry contraction, the banking collapse, the real estate depression, the health-care cost explosion and the runaway federal deficit. Sound Familiar? This was written in 1992. Time Magazine. I know it is hard to believe. I know this time it feels different. I know it is ugly out there, particularly for the unemployed. But it is almost as hard for the employed. And, it might be harder, for the business owner who is carrying a lot of debt, personal and business-related. I understand all this--we talk to real folks, just like you, everyday. We are real folks too. YES! There are reasons for optimism! Here are some of them, courtesy of economist Brian Beaulieu and our friends at Minor & Brown:
- Leading indicators pointing up.
- Liquidity is not an issue.
- Exports are up.
- Simulative monetary policy.
- Employment may rise (companies right-sized).
- Banks are lending.
- Normal seasonal rise in Retail Sales is coming!
- $447 bils stimulus program.
So what are you worried about? Can you wait until next week until I give you the bad news? If not, then you can skip ahead and see the economist's presentation on the Minor & Brown web site, www.minorbrown.com |
| Weekly Economic Update | |
RETAIL SALES JUMP MOST IN 7 MONTHS
On Friday, the Commerce Department said overall U.S. retail spending improved 1.1% in September, with auto sales rising 3.6% for the month and department store sales up 1.1%. August retail sales - previously recorded as flat - were revised north to a 0.3% gain. (1)
UMICH SENTIMENT SURVEY SHOWS A DECLINE
The University of Michigan's initial October consumer sentiment poll came in 57.5, under the final September reading of 59.4. As the Wall Street Journal noted, consensus forecasts expected a reading of around 60. (2)
GOLD & OIL REBOUND IMPRESSIVELY
NYMEX crude futures rose 4.60% last week, settling at $86.80 a barrel on Friday and putting oil up 9.60% so far for October. Gold futures settled at $1,681.80 on the COMEX Friday, capping the best week for the metal since the start of September - a 2.89% five-day advance. (3)
DOW, NASDAQ GET BACK IN THE BLACK FOR 2011
As the European Union seemingly progressed toward a solution to its debt crisis, clouds parted on Wall Street. It was a great week for U.S. equities, as these numbers show: S&P 500, +5.98% to 1,224.58; DJIA, +4.88% to 11,644.49; NASDAQ, +7.60% to 2,667.85. Friday, the CBOE VIX closed below 29 and all three of the major indices closed at 10-week highs. (4,5) |
| Trust Company of America Announcement | |
Trust Company of America announces a new web site with new, easier-to-understand graphics and features. I think you will appreciate it. They did research with advisors like us and clients like you to find out how to improve, and they've done a great job. Here is a short video explaining the new software, codenamed "Liberty." Check it out! (6)
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| Market Summary |
|
% Change |
Y-T-D |
1Yr Chg |
5-Year Avg | |
DJIA |
+0.58 |
+4.96 |
-0.53 | |
NASDAQ |
+0.56 |
+9.55 |
+2.63 | |
S&P 500 |
-2.63 |
+4.33 |
-2.07 |
(Source: cnbc.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov, treasurydirect.gov - 10/14/11). Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged, and investors cannot invest in them directly. |
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Create a beautiful week!
Karl Frank, MBA, MSF
Certified Financial Planner (R)
A & I Financial Services LLC
303.690.5070
Citations:
(1) - latimes.com/business/la-fi-economy-retail-20111014,0,1716584.story?track=rss [10/14/11]
(2) - blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/10/14/consumer-sentiment-weaker-than-expected-stocks-shrug-it-off/ [10/14/11]
(3) - blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/10/14/data-points-energy-metals-526/ [10/14/11]
(4) - cnbc.com/id/44902461 [10/14/11]
(5) - montoyaregistry.com/Financial-Market.aspx?financial-market=an-introduction-to-the-stock-market&category=29 [10/14/11]
(6) - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y031CrTZBAo
This material has been prepared and is distributed solely for information purposes only. It is not a solicitation or an offer buy any securities or instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. There is no assurance that a particular trading strategy will achieve investment success.
Securities offered through Geneos Wealth Management, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services offered through A & I Financial Services LLC, registered investment advisor.
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| Words for Thought |
There is nothing in a caterpillar that tells you it's going to be a butterfly." Buckminster Fuller |
| Watch Karl Frank's interview on MoneyLine9 9NEWS on May 9, 2011 | |
Click Here
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| Watch Karl Frank on Channel 9 News & Read his article "Where to Invest in Times of Turmoil" | |
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| Read about us in the Denver Post | |
Karl Frank & Cameron Morgan were featured in the Denver Post. They talked about how to have a happy holiday while sticking to a budget.
Click here to read the article. |
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Riddle of the Week |
Trains travel from one town to another town all day, always on the same track, always going nonstop and at the same speed. The noon train took 80 minutes to complete the trip, but the 4 PM train took an hour and 20 minutes. Why?
Last week's riddle:
Just two U.S. states have capital cities whose names include the full name of the state. What states are they?
Last week's answer:
Indiana (Indianapolis) and Oklahoma (Oklahoma City)
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