A&I Financial Services Periscope

A & I Financial Services LLC Newsletter

For the Week of
July 14, 2011
 
Greetings!   
  

Thinking about Economics? Don't Invest on It!

 

A very popular way to invest is to consider all of the big picture economic trends in the world and invest your money accordingly. Fund managers start with a top-down approach and, using macro-economic forecasting, work their way down to favored industries and stocks.

 

Our research team, led by Dr. Tom Howard, discovered years ago that this is one of the least effective ways to invest, except (perhaps) in times of economic distress.  Read more below!

A Money Manager's Point of View

For today's Money Manager POV, let's look at a recent article from the Wall Street Journal about how today, thinking about economics is bad for your investments.

 

In the top 10 ways to pick your stocks, the "Economic Conditions" is among the worst 3 relative to the others. Why?  "[Economic Conditions] managers have been tripped up by whiplash-inducing swings in stocks, currencies and commodities, often brought about by the latest twists and turns of impossible-to-time political developments."

 

Even today, world markets are moving in lock-step with one another. When the "Economic Conditions" managers start to outperform other managers, then we likely have a crisis brewing. One potential investment strategy uses a "Market Directional" approach. 

 

Here, without regard to price action or anything economic or otherwise, the research team weighs the relative performance of money managers and invests accordingly, including (perhaps) in investments that rise as the market declines.  A second potential strategy for bad economic times is Trend Following.

 

To read the complete Wall Street Journal article, email us or click the following link (subscription required). Click Here

 

To learn more about our views on the current economic conditions and current positions in your portfolio, call us! (1) 

Join us for a Lunch & Learn Event 

Tips from a Triathlon Coach

July 19

Explore personal fitness training with Mark Dillard, Coach and Trainer for 3DMultisport.
  
Mark has completed four Ironman distance triathlons and has competed on Team USA at the world championship in the Olympic Distance Triathlon.  He also has been named All American three times in the sport of Triathlon.
  
Mark has been coaching for 20 years and currently owns and operates a triathlon/running coaching business - 3DMultisport. Please join us for lunch and listen to Mark's ideas on setting up a training regimen to include strength and conditioning.  Also, find out how to stay fit into your "Master Years."
  
  

Fitness Tips from a Triathlon Coach 

Lunch Provided 

  

 Date: Tuesday, July 19, 2011

Time: 11:30 AM - 12:30 PM

Location:  Our offices, 9780 Mt. Pyramid Court, Suite 130
Englewood, CO 80112

 

RSVP by e-mail to Jane@assetsandincome.com or call 303-690-5070

 
Reservations are required.  Feel free to bring a friend or colleague! 

 

Lunch and Learn Icon

 

Economic Briefs

 

MINIMAL JOB CREATION IN JUNE
The Labor Department issued a disappointing unemployment report Friday. In June, non-farm payrolls expanded by just 18,000 jobs. (May's net job gain was revised down from 54,000 to 25,000.) The unemployment rate was 9.2% in June; it has increased in each month since March. (2)
  
SERVICE SECTOR GROWS FOR 19TH STRAIGHT MONTH
The Institute for Supply Management's June non-manufacturing index decreased to 53.3 from May's 54.6 reading, falling a bit below the 54.0 consensus forecast of economists surveyed by Reuters. Prices paid by service-sector companies fell to their lowest level since August, a sign of reduced inflation pressure. (3)
  
MORE CAPITAL INVESTMENT IN MAY
Factory orders increased by 0.8% in that month. The Commerce Department also noted a 1.6% improvement in non-defense capital goods orders, a 1.8% increase in non-defense capital goods shipments, and a 2.1% rise in demand for hard goods. Separately, the Federal Reserve estimated that factory output rose by 0.4% in May.(4)
  
IMPRESSIVE WEEK FOR OIL & GOLD
Gold futures advanced 3.97% across July 5-8 to settle at $1,541.20 on the COMEX Friday. It was gold's first weekly gain since mid-June. Oil prices rose 1.33% last week to get to at $96.20 a barrel at the NYMEX's closing bell Friday.(5)
  
A WIN STREAK BEGINS ON WALL STREET
The S&P 500 advanced 0.31% last week to close at 1,343.80 Friday. The Dow wrapped up the week at 12,657.20; its weekly gain was 0.59%. The NASDAQ was the pacesetter, rising 1.55% across four market days to a Friday close of 2,859.81.(6) 
  
Market Summary

% Change

Y-T-D

1Yr Chg

5-Year Avg

DJIA

+9.33

+24.84

+2.82

NASDAQ

+7.80

+31.46

+6.85

S&P 500

+6.85

+25.56

+1.24

(Source: cnbc.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov, treasurydirect.gov - 7/8/11).  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Indices are unmanaged, and investors cannot invest in them directly.
Create a beautiful week!

Karl Frank, MBA, MSF
Certified Financial Planner (R)
A & I Financial Services LLC
303.690.5070
 
Citations:   
(1) - http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304584404576
438142804660106.html
(2) - latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co/2011/07/unemployment-june.html [7/8/11] 
(3) - chicagotribune.com/business/breaking/chi-service-sector-growth-slows-in-june-ism-reports-20110706,0,6790985.story / [7/6/11]
(4) - businessweek.com/news/2011-07-05/orders-to-u-s-factories-rose-0-8-in-may-on-capital-goods.html [7/5/11]
(5) - blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/07/08/data-points-energy-metals-496/ [7/8/11]
(6) - cnbc.com/id/43683574 [7/8/11]
 
This material has been prepared and is distributed solely for information purposes only. It is not a solicitation or an offer buy any securities or instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. There is no assurance that a particular trading strategy will achieve investment success.
 
Securities offered through Geneos Wealth Management, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC.  Investment advisory services offered through A & I Financial Services LLC, registered investment advisor.


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Words for Thought
"A mistake is to commit a misunderstanding."
  
Bob Dylan
Watch Karl Frank's interview on MoneyLine9 9NEWS on May 9, 2011

Click Here

 

 

Watch Karl Frank on Channel 9 News & Read his article "Where to Invest in Times of Turmoil"

Click Here

 

Read about us in the Denver Post

Karl Frank & Cameron Morgan were featured in the Denver Post.  They talked about how to have a happy holiday while sticking to a budget. 

 

Click here to read the article.  

Riddle of the Week
A librarian finds that pages have been ripped out of a novel. Pages 28, 29, 148, 211 and 212 are torn out. Given this, how many separate sheets of paper have been torn from the book?  
  

Last week's riddle: 

   

What is the number missing within this sequence? 4, 7, 11, 18, 29, 47, __, 123, 199, 322.

 

 Last week's answer: 

 

 76. Starting with the third number in the sequence, each number equals the sum of the two preceding numbers