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Hometrack's monthly survey for December shows that in 2010 overall house prices fell by 1.6%. They are projecting a further fall of 2% in 2011 as a result of weak demand, falling supply and a lack of mortgage finance. The RICS Housing Market Forecast supports this, also expecting a 2% fall in 2011. A new report, New Housing Pipeline published by the Home Builders Federation shows that planning approvals in quarter 3 of 2010 were at their lowest level for five years.
Details of 2010 performance are now starting to come through. Miller Group said sales were down 16% with 1,915 completions. Bovis also announced that they had completed on 1,901 homes in 2010, but this was up 5% on 2009.
In the commercial office sector, DTZ state that a significant degree of confidence has returned to the Central London leasing market. Availability has fallen nearly 25% since its peak in mid-2009. Nearly 85% of lettings have been in newly built or refurbished space. This has reflected the appetite of occupiers to upgrade the quality of their premises while rents were still low and incentives high.
DTZ predicts that occupiers looking for large grade A space requirements post-2012, particularly in the City and Docklands markets, will actively look to negotiate pre-letting agreements in 2011. More occupiers will also be forced to consider refurbished or good quality second-hand buildings. This view is supported by Capita Symonds who in their January report say that 2010 overall has been a year in which Central London markets have recovered strongly. The outlook outside London is less encouraging, particularly in the north - where little new development is evident and rents generally remain stagnant. "We are likely to see the gap widen still further in 2011, particularly given that demand for office space in other regions will be more heavily constrained by public sector cuts and rising unemployment," says Alan Dornford, director, Capita Symonds' real estate division.
Finally, Glenigan have just published their review of construction prospects for 2011 which is available for download.
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