In its latest forecast the Construction Products Association says that construction output will stall in 2011 with a decline of 2%. It expects private housing starts to grow by 5% in both 2011 and 2012, public sector construction will fall by 9% in 2011 and 2012 and the commercial sector will rise by 20% between 2009 and 2015. Rail and Energy activity will be the principal drivers with output doubling for one and trebling for the other.

It is interesting to compare these forecasts with those published by the CPA a year ago. We then see that they are now slightly less optimistic about Housing. They see Education falling more rapidly and to a lower level. But their forecasts for Retail, Offices and Leisure activity are all up by more than 50% on expectations a year ago. Even activity in Healthcare is expected to be higher than the view in 2009. So despite the doom and gloom the market is more attractive than it was 12 months ago.

The long awaited publication of the Localism and Decentralisation Bill may finally see movement in approval for housebuilding. As part of the programme Housing Minister, Grant Shapps also announced that the new Community Right to Build will be introduced as part of wider Neighbourhood Planning reforms. Applying throughout the country, community-led developments won't need normal planning permission, but will instead need to pass the test of public opinion, and gain the support of more than half of voters in a local referendum. In addition £1bn has been allocated towards a New Homes Bonus, offering cash for councils who allow new homes to be built in their area. They say that £4.5bn will be invested over the period of the Spending Review to deliver up to 150,000 affordable homes.

Responding to the publication of the Localism Bill the Home Builders Federation said that recent research conducted by YouGov shows that only 50% of people want new homes built in their neighbourhood. Stewart Baseley, Executive Chairman of HBF said "The Government and Local Councils need to join us in educating communities of the severity of the housing crisis and the benefits of new homes."

Latent demand still exists. Many will recall the previous government's target of 250,000 new homes built each year. A level which actual housing output has fallen well short of. The latest household projections have been recently published and these show a lower growth in new households than previously projected. It anticipates household growth will be 232,000 per year - 20,500 below the previous estimate. But this is still well above the forecasted completions from the CPA of 140,000 in 2011 rising to 180,000 in 2015.

Assuming the homes are built, will the price that developers require and the ability of new buyers to purchase be there?

Property website Rightmove reported another month of falling house prices with their December House Price Index falling by 3%. Although the annual change is still slightly positive at 0.4% up, Rightmove predict a price fall of 5% in 2011. This is much more dramatic than the 0.1% monthly fall reported in the Halifax House Price Index who "do not expect to see a significant fall in house prices." Nationwide have still to publish their December figures. A major factor influencing house sales is availability of mortgages, especially for first time buyers. In their recently published October report the Council of Mortgage Lenders stated that first time buyer loans were down 5% in number and 9% in value compared to the previous month and 19% and 17% down year on year.

Paul Morrell, Chief Construction Advisor, recently published his report "Low Carbon Construction". In this he identified 65 recommendations which will now be put to government. Although focused on the sustainability agenda they do include recommendations that the industry should restructure to achieve greater collaboration between sectors, leading to savings in the cost of construction. The proposal to bring commercial fit-out under the influence of the Building Regulations, and back up the Green Deal with regulation would lead to greater work opportunities. But these are all recommendations, so it is now up to the government to decide what it wants to implement. You can view the Full Report or the Executive Summary online.

When I organised a seminar on marketing to architects for CIMCIG last September the feedback indicated that getting the architect's attention was the key challenge. So we have arranged another half day seminar, Communicating with Architects, being held at the Building Centre in London on 10^th February 2011.

This event will be well worth attending as I will be presenting an overview from our latest market research into Communicating with Architects which will be launched at the event. We will also have five leading construction industry communications agencies presenting case studies and ideas on the best ways to communicate with architects - The Charlotte Street Agency, CIB Communications, MRA Marketing, Pauley Creative and Ridgemount PR. Quite a gathering of expertise in one room!

You can book online by following this link or calling the CIM Events team on 01628 427340. If you book before 31^st December there is an early bird discount with prices at £80 for CIM and CIMCIG members or £100 for non members.