I recently gave a talk to the Transition group in Bath about what I call "the middle bit of change". Many books and talks addressing global issues focus on either of two main areas. The first is describing the problem, often with statistics, graphs and images to show how bad things are. The other is naming the practical action we need take, often supporting this with inspiring examples and lists of digestible bite sized steps. While both these foci are essential, there's a whole journey that happens between knowing about a problem and doing something to address it. The middle bit of change looks at what goes on between awareness and action, exploring what can help bring out our most inspired responses and also identifying what can block this.

The journey towards action begins with recognising an issue as important enough to give your attention to. When disturbing information is uncomfortable to look at, it can be tempting to turn away; just giving an issue your attention is itself a powerful step for change. But once you look at what is happening, what sense do you make of it? Let's take the weirdness of the weather as an example. In Britain where I live, it has been raining almost every day for weeks, with the heaviest ever-recorded UK rainfall (31.44 cm in 24 hours) occurring last month in Cumbria. Although Britain has a reputation for being wet, I don't remember anything like the persistent downpours and floods we've had in recent years. But weather is erratic, and prone to fluctuations. While my guts tell me something isn't right, I need to go beyond my own experience to recognise a larger trend.

Scientists the world over have been studiously documenting the many manifestations of a global climate disturbance over the last few decades. As our world gets warmer,  predictions made years ago by climate scientists are beginning to come true. Annual UK rainfall has increased¹ and heavy rainfall events, where it pours for many days at a time, have become twice as common in Northern England since the 1960's, and four times as common in Scotland². Australia, California and many Mediterranean countries are becoming so dry that wildfires are reaching new levels of intensity³. In Africa, reduced rainfall is causing crop failures and increased conflict⁴. The Arctic sea ice is melting, and even more rapidly than forecast by the computer models used for the last IPCC report⁵. Worldwide, weather related disasters have been on the increase decade by decade, with, on average, 300 events recorded every year in the 1980's, 480 every year in the 1990's and 620 events a year over the last decade⁶.

This list could go on and a recent survey of 24,071 people in 23 countries showed that 64% of those polled now recognise climate change as a serious problem⁷. However, not everyone appears so convinced. You may encounter the view that climate change is some kind of hoax, or that if it is happening, the causes are unrelated to human activity. As well as looking at how people become inspired to tackle an issue, we also need to understand resistance and learn how to work with this. Part of this unwillingness to view climate change as a problem is linked to a very deliberate campaign by fossil fuel industry funded PR firms to undermine the science, drawing on their experience of similar well funded campaigns to cast doubt on the dangers of tobacco, asbestos and ozone depleting chemicals. I strongly recommend reading the excellent blog by Dr Jeff Masters⁸ where he describes these campaigns in detail. However I don't think we can put all climate change denial down to misinformation. We also need to understand why these campaigns fall on willing ears. It is here that I value what I've learnt from working in the addictions field.

Working with resistance

When we're making a significant change, there's likely to be part of us that wants it and part of us that doesn't. The part that wants it is our motivation. But the part that doesn't is also motivated, except in the opposite direction. In the language of addictions treatment, this is referred to as counter-motivation. What often causes change to grind to a halt is the ambivalence of conflicting motives. To understand resistance, both in yourself and in others, ask yourself "why might I or anyone else, prefer not to think about Climate Change?  If I do think about it, what's attractive about the idea that it is a hoax? And if it isn't a hoax, why might I prefer to believe it has nothing to do with me?"

I'm suggesting empathy rather than argument. The danger of arguments, according to behaviour change research, is they tend to increase resistance⁹. Battles can polarise. That doesn't mean we don't speak our truth or share our concerns, more that we recognise how win/lose interactions can give people a motive for discounting information they see as threatening to a position they've taken.

When I put myself in the shoes of the sceptic, I feel an immediate sense of relief. How much more comfortable is the reality that none of this is happening. How glad I'd be if the scientists, and all their measurements, were wrong. It isn't just an inconvenient truth we're facing, but one that can feel psychologically unacceptable. So what's on the other side of the balance? If it is true and as bad as some studies suggest, why might I want to face it? Why might I want to know and also to respond? The way to deal with ambivalence is bring it into the open where it can be worked with and worked through. Part of this involves acknowledging that this stuff can be hard to look at, hard to accept and hard to know how to respond to. If we accept these difficulties, then we can look at how we address them.

Finding Inspiration

If we want to be part of the story of facing what's happening and doing our bit to turn things around, then it is worth looking at what strengthens our ability to do this. Our sources of inspiration are crucial here, and in my talk to Transition Bath, I asked the audience to take a moment in pairs to first listen to the person sitting next to them talk for just one minute about anything that had inspired them recently, and then to swap roles, so that the other person listened while they spoke about what had inspired them. Although this took only a few minutes, the atmosphere in the room felt different afterwards. People looked more awake, with a brightness in their eyes. When I asked if anyone felt more inspired, a roomful of hands shot up.

Inspiration can be contagious, so if you know anyone who's got it, find out where they caught it from, and perhaps catch it from them too. If you find yourself excited about a project or resource that inspires you, please tell us about it on the Great Turning Times Readers Page at Wiserearth.org. My apologies for the incorrect link to this with the last edition, the right address is: http://www.wiserearth.org/group/GTTreaders

A purpose of this newsletter is to pass on news of inspiring resources, and I'd like to tell about one that arrived through my letterbox recently. It is a book I'm so impressed by that I'm awarding it the Great Turning Times Book of the Year award for 2009. It is Social Change 2.0 by David Gershon (High Point/Chelsea Green, 2009). Drawing on decades of practice and research into what helps the shift towards sustainability, it describes social change tools that have been proven in the field. The core idea is that while campaigning and protest actions are hugely important, we also need an approach that empowers communities to reinvent our society from the bottom up. That's not a new idea; what is new is the way this book illustrates how community empowerment tools can address the middle bit of change, engaging people and their enthusiasm, mapping out design principles and strategies you can use in promoting the shift towards a sustainable society.

In this newsletter we look at all three bits of change - information about the problems we face, a focus on how we promote motivation and inspiration for change, and also pointers towards practical steps that can make a difference. With delegates of 192 countries gathering in Copenhagen, our world is poised at a crucial turning point. But that turning doesn't just involve those delegates, it also involves you and me and the choices we will continue to make. The Great Turning is happening and we can all be part of it.

With you in this exciting adventure

Chris.

Chris Johnstone

Editor, The Great Turning Times

http://www.GreatTurningTimes.org

http://www.chrisjohnstone.info

1) http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/england-under-water-scientists-confirm-global-warming-link-to-increased-rain-458348.html

2)  http://www.ncl.ac.uk/press.office/press.release/item/?ref=1157358561

3)  http://www.cmar.csiro.au/e-print/open/hennessykj_2005b.pdf

4)  http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8375949.stm

5)  http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7786910.stm

7)  http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8396512.stm

8)  http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1389

9)  Miller and Rollnick, Motivational Interviewing (2^nd Ed, Guildford Press, 2002).

The world is much closer to running out of oil than official estimates admit, according to a whistleblower from the International Energy Agency. See http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/09/peak-oil-international-energy-agency

This view is echoed by the UK Energy Research Council Study of 2009, which says there is a consensus that the era of cheap oil is at an end and a significant risk that production of conventional oil could peak and decline in the next ten years. 

You can download this report at http://www.ukerc.ac.uk/support/Global%20Oil%20Depletion

New economics is not just an alternative to the status quo. Nor is it simply a critique that explains why mainstream

economics is failing. It is an outline of the new economic systems that are emerging.

To find out more, take a look at this:

http://www.neweconomics.org/sites/neweconomics.org/files/Background_Information_0.pdf