Luncheon Announcement

Noon to 1:30PM

TUESDAY April 22, 2008

The East Bank Club, 500 N Kingsbury, Chicago 60610

Please join us for another outstanding event in the CCASA's 2007-2008 Luncheon Program.

The Chicago chapter of the American Statistical Association is pleased to announce that Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus will be our luncheon speaker on Tuesday, April 22, 2008. The luncheon will be held at the East Bank Club (500 N. Kingsbury in Chicago) and will begin at 12 noon.

Nate's analyses of baseball are widely reported in the national media, and the accuracy of some of his predictions are uncanny. Last year Nate accurately predicted the demise of the White Sox (see "Statistics In Action" Section below for more info) through the use of his PECOTA projection system. Nate will discuss how he derived the PECOTA system, the improvements that have been made to it over time, how it compares to other projection systems, and what the system portends for the Cubs and White Sox in 2008.

Nate Silver is the Managing Partner of Baseball Prospectus and the creator of the PECOTA projection system. In addition to his duties for Baseball Prospectus, Nate has written for Sports Illustrated, ESPN.com. and Slate.com.

So bring your scorecards to this opening day event from the Chicago Chapter of the American Statistical Association, and let's get ready to play ball!

The cost of the luncheon is $30.00 for both members and nonmembers. Visa, MasterCard and American Express are accepted. To make a reservation, contact:

Lou Fogg, VP for Luncheons

Phone 312-942-6239

E-mail: louis_fogg@rush.edu

Registrations can be made online at https://www.123signup.com/calendar? Org=chicagoasa

Please include your name and telephone number in all messages. If you make a reservation but are unable to attend, Lou must receive your cancellation by 9 am Monday, April 21. Otherwise, we must ask that you pay, as the Chapter is liable for all meals ordered. As usual, the Lucile Derrick Fund will purchase a limited number of tickets for students who wish to attend.

Statistician of the Year Award

David L. Wallace, Professor Emeritus, University of Chicago

6:00PM-8:00PM

May 15, 2008

The East Bank Club, 500 N Kingsbury, Chicago 60610

The Chicago Chapter of the American Statistical Association is pleased to announce that David L. Wallace, Professor Emeritus, University of Chicago, has been chosen the 2007-2008 Statistician of the Year.

The Chapter's Statistician of the Year is selected by a vote of past honorees, all of whom are internationally renowned members of the statistical community. Selection as a Chicago Chapter Statistician of The Year is a very significant honor. Please help us welcome David into this select community at our chapter dinner on Thursday May 15, 2008 at the East Bank Club.

Registration will begin at 6:00 pm; dinner will be served at 6:30 pm. The cost of the dinner is $55

Register online at https://www.123signup.com/register? id=tmvbp

For questions about this event, please contact Richard Smiley at president@c hicagoasa.org Please include your name and telephone number in all messages. If you make a reservation but are unable to attend, Richard must receive your cancellation by 9 am Wednesday, May 14th. Otherwise, we must ask that you pay, as the Chapter is liable for all meals ordered. As usual, the Lucile Derrick Fund will purchase a limited number of tickets for students who wish to attend.

STATbit

Did you know the ASA offers a Post-Graduate Membership? This membership is available to new graduates for the first year after graduation from a degree program and offers all the benefits of a regular membership.

In Amstat News

In this month's President's Corner, Peter A. (Tony) Lachenbruch asked ASA presidential nominees Xiao-Li Meng and Sastry Pantula to help write his column and stress the importance of the ASA's elections. They all encourage your participation. Read the column.

For more information on National ASA happenings, visit www.amstat.org

Mr. Nate Silver, our April Luncheon speaker, was recently featured in an article by the Chicago Reader. Thought you might want to take a look!

The Algorithm Method

By Michael Miner, Published: March 27, 2008

..."The father of PECOTA is Chicago's Nate Silver. "The idea behind the system," he explains by e-mail, "is really just to use baseball history to inform our projections in the form of comparable players. So for Mark Buehrle, we might look at other durable left-handed pitchers like Jim Kaat, and for Alfonso Soriano, we might look at speed/power outfielders who struck out a lot, like Joe Carter. By seeing how the comparable pitchers performed, we can have a way to predict future performance that is both intuitive and accurate."...

.."Silver describes himself as a former underemployed consultant who "worked with a lot of spreadsheets and statistical models." He continues, "So I started working on PECOTA-which looked just like one of the models we might put together for our clients, meaning my bosses wouldn't give me any trouble when they walked by." After months of tinkering, Silver went public with PECOTA in 2003."...

Read on to learn more...

http://www.chicagoreader.com/features/stories/hottype/080327/

Here's a quick note from your editor... As a recruiter in the industry for 25 years, I thought you might appreciate hearing what I'm seeing in the market today!

---------------------------------------------------

Is the Job Market Mad For Grads?

Written By: Linda Burtch

It is according to The Chicago Tribune, which recently reported a robust hiring market for college graduates this spring. While the article highlighted a number of "hot" areas, it did not address the entry market for our industry, specifically quantitative candidates coming out of master's degree programs in statistics, economics and operations research. Here are a few of my observations on the current and upcoming markets for analytical grads.

In general, demand from our corporate clients for entry-level candidates has trended down since fourth quarter 2007. There is a growing perception that more experienced candidates are available as a result of the uncertainty hitting some specific industries. As a result, many organizations are attempting to fill open positions with candidates who have some corporate experience, even if it is only one or two years.

New Grads Address Specific Needs

Even with current conditions favoring more experienced employees, companies remain sensitive to the continuing need to staff their quantitative groups and assure that the pipeline of trained talent will remain unbroken, especially for critical, hard-to-fill openings. Corporate talent acquisition groups are also busy planning for the wave of Baby Boomers approaching retirement age, and new grads will play a key role in filling this looming void.

In uncertain economic times, new grads also help address the all-important issue of staffing costs, as they are typically brought in at much lower salary- and benefit-levels. In addition, new grads often offer "fresher" technical skills than their more experienced colleagues.

Flexibility is Key

If, as predicted, the market continues to soften, graduates on training visas will have a more challenging time this spring. It is important for these individuals to be flexible with geographic requirements and, as always, hone their communication skills, both spoken and written. It has not been my experience that these candidates need to consider lower compensation levels

Although a repeat of the distressing graduate markets of 2001/2002 is unlikely, let's not lose track of lessons learned. While some organizations will make offers to students months in advance of graduation (many large consulting firms routinely follow this practice), these offers can be rescinded, as they were frequently during the last recession.

Soon-to-be graduates need to stay abreast of changing circumstances at their future employers and remain flexible, if necessary.

Market Shrinking, But Salaries Rising

So far this year, we have seen the entry market demand for recent analytical grads shrink by 32%. Starting salaries, however, have continued to increase. The average starting base salary for a quantitative master's graduate for the 12 months ending June 2007 was $57K; that base has since increased to $62K.

--------------------------------------------------- Even in the uncertainty of today's economy, the need for strong quantitative talent remains solid. So, relax, and keep up the good work!

-Linda Burtch

Editor: Linda Burtch (312) 629-2400

PARAMETER, newsletter of the Chicago Chapter of the American Statistical Association, is published 10 times a year as a service to its members. To submit material for publication, contact the Editor, Linda Burtch, email: lburtch@smithhanley.com

PARAMETER provides a job listing service by publishing Positions Available and Positions Wanted, the latter being free to Chapter members. Companies may list positions for $75. Contact the Editor for more information.

For additional information about Chicago Chapter ASA, please visit us on the web at: www.ChicagoASA.org Also, visit the National ASA web site www.amstat.org.

Email change of address to: suzanne.niemi@walgreens.com

email: newsletter@chicagoasa.org

web: http://www.chicagoasa.org