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Newsletter for May 27, 2008


A weekly sampling of news, analysis and opinion on economic issues of India, China and the U.S. Articles and opinion pieces are from a variety of sources and viewpoints and do not necessarily reflect those of ICA Institute. Access to some articles may require free registration to the site or may not be cited to the original source.

In this issue
  • Retail Revolution: The battle for the next 1 billion consumers
  • Broadband World Forum Asia 2008
  • India and the U.S: Growing Market Opportunities
  • Headlines
  • Energy
  • Information & Communications Technology
  • Agriculture
  • Environment | Climate Change
  • Health | Medicine
  • Logistics | Transportation
  • Newsletter staff

  • Retail Revolution: The battle for the next 1 billion consumers

    Join us for the India, China & America (ICA) Institute's Global Virtual Seminar Series Tu, June 10 at 11am EDT.

    In 2007, the Chinese and Indian retail markets together were worth about $1 trillion. By 2012, that figure will jump to $1.7 trillion as increased prosperity delivers greater spending power, creating hundreds of millions of new consumers in the process.

    But the two big Asian markets are at different stages of development. "Modern" or "organized" retail has 20% of the total retail spent in China, while in India, the figure is just 4%. The comparable figure for the United States is 85%.

    The world's two biggest international retailers, Wal-Mart and Carrefour, have been operating in China for years, but are yet to gain much traction in India. Both retailers plan to have Indian wholesale operations by 2008-09.

    India's modern retail sector is growing much faster than traditional retail. But because it is starting from such a small base, it will not match the size of traditional retail for perhaps 20 years. Even so, the Indian opportunity is luring many new entrants. They include such big Indian names as Reliance, Bharti and Birla, who are gearing up for battle against incumbents in India's store wars.

    Like their counterparts in China, Indian retailers face big challenges. There is a global war for talent, a desperate need for efficient supply chains, and both China and India must deal with the political sensitivities of vast rural hinterlands.

    Business journalist Geoff Hiscock, author of "India's Global Wealth Club" (2007) and a forthcoming book on the Indian retail scene, will present this webinar exploring this retail revolution.

    The only cost may be your long distance charge to dial in.

    Date: Tuesday, June 10, 2008
    Time: 11:00 AM - 12:00 PM EDT

    Space is limited.
    Reserve your Webinar seat now at:
    https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/393478071


    Broadband World Forum Asia 2008

    15 - 18 July 2008
    Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre
    Hong Kong, China

    The Broadband World Forum Asia www.iec.org/events/2008/bbwf_asia is designed to help service providers meet the challenges of offering revenue-driving broadband-enabled services while evolving their networks, operations, and business models in a new world of competition.

    Session programming will examine the range of broadband content, entertainment, applications, access strategies, service management, and integration that form the backbone of the profitable network operator while providing a unique venue to evaluate strategy and make informed decisions. Programming is complemented by a cutting-edge technology exhibition where attendees can receive a firsthand look at the latest broadband applications, solutions and services from leading technology organizations.

    As a member of ICA, enter code VIPICA when registering to receive complimentary Exhibits PLUS access or 30% discount from standard conference rates. Register


    India and the U.S: Growing Market Opportunities

    Are you doing business in world's biggest democracy and fastest growing market?
    Are you planning to?

    The Georgia Tech Center for International Business Education & Research (GT CIBER) and the U.S. India Business & Research Center (USIBRC) are organizing India and the U.S: Growing Market Opportunities - a symposium on June 16th and 17th, 2008 with support of The Metro Atlanta Chamber of Commerce and the U.S. Commercial Service. The symposium is sponsored by USIBRC, NIIT Technologies, InterContinental Hotels Group and Arnall Golden Gregory.

    Symposium
    Date: Tuesday, June 17, 2008 8 am to 2:00 pm
    Venue: Metro Atlanta Chamber of Commerce

    Reception
    Date: Monday, June 16th, 2008, 6:00 pm to 8:00 pm
    Venue: Metro Atlanta Chamber of Commerce

    Cost:
    Reception and Symposium - $125 per person
    Symposium only- $ 90 per person (Students and Academics $60/person - contact the host for discount information)
    Reception only- $50 per person

    For online registration please visit - https://epay.gatech.edu/C20793_ustores/web/store_cat.jsp?STOREID=47&CATID=97

    If paying by check, please make your check out to Georgia Institute of Technology and send it to the address below.

    For event information, sponsorship opportunities and registration please contact:
    Ani Agnihotri, US India Business and Research Center (USIBRC)
    415 Lakehill Court, Alpharetta, GA 30022
    Phone: 404-394-6678
    E-mail: usibrc@gmail.com


    Headlines


    Saudi donation 'demonstrates friendship' (People's Daily Online, May 27)
    Saudi Arabia's offer of financial aid to China is an indication of the friendship between the two countries, its ambassador to China said last week. King Abdullah bin Abdul-Aziz offered $50 million in cash and $10 million worth of relief materials to China three days after the Sichuan quake. It is the largest donation from a single foreign country. Last year, bilateral trade between China and Saudi Arabia exceeded $25 billion. Saudi Arabia is China's largest trading partner in west Asia and north Africa.

    China's commercial enterprises lose 25 bln yuan in quake (People's Daily Online, May 22)
    America's top spymaster sees either India or the US becoming the world's second largest economy in the next 25 years with China at the top in this century of Asia. But thanks to their positive demographics, the world's two largest democracies, India and the US, would have a much brighter future, Director of National Intelligence Mike McConnell told graduating students of the George Washington University.

    India and Other Emerging Economies Continue to Struggle With Inflation (Money Morning, May 27)
    India's wholesale price index rose 7.82% for in the week ended May 10, the Ministry of Commerce and Industry reported. It marked the 13th straight week that the inflation rate has been above the central bank's 5.5% target, highlighting the increased pressures many developing nations are under given soaring commodities prices. The rate of inflation for the week ended May 15 is expected to be 8.02%, the highest level since September 2004, according to Bloomberg News.


    Energy


    UPDATE 1-India to take fuel price rise decision soon - govt (Reuters India, May 27)
    India will take a decision soon on whether to raise petrol and diesel prices, a senior oil ministry official said on Tuesday, as it struggles to ease losses at state oil firms without adding to inflation or alienating voters. Asian nations Indonesia and Sri Lanka raised fuel prices at the weekend, deciding they can no longer afford to shield their consumers from soaring world oil prices CLc1 now above $133 a barrel. Last week, officials in India's oil ministry proposed to raise petrol prices by 10 rupees, or 22 percent, and diesel prices by 5 rupees, or 15.8 percent, as crude prices soared to record highs, hammering state oil firms. Analysts say ministers are likely to substantially tone down that proposal with inflation already at 8 percent, a 3-� year high, and the ruling coalition battered by an election loss in a key southern state.

    World Bank to lend $440 mln to China energy sector (Reuters UK, May 27)
    The World Bank is planning three energy-sector loans to China totalling $440 million, about a third of its budgeted 2008 lending to the country. David Dollar, the head of the bank's Beijing office, said the loans were due to be examined by the World Bank board in Washington later on Tuesday. A $200 million loan is designed to stimulate energy-efficiency lending, a sector in its infancy in China.

    RUSSIA AND CHINA: UNITED BY FOREIGN POLICY, DIVIDED BY ENERGY PRICES (Eurasia Daily Monitor, May 27)
    In 2007 Russia's trade with China reached $40.3 billion, according to Russian government data. Meanwhile, the figure was put at $48.16 billion or 44.3 percent up from the previous year, according to Russian foreign trade estimates and Chinese statistics. For the first time since the Soviet collapse in 1991, China recorded a healthy $8.76 billion surplus in its trade with Russia. Discrepancies between Russian and Chinese statistics have been explained by the so-called "gray" trade phenomenon -- semi-legal cross-border commerce. In the meantime, Russian oil exports to China were going down, apparently because the China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) remained reluctant to accept the import prices of crude oil supplied to China by Rosneft. In 2007 oil deliveries to China mainly by the state-run oil company Rosneft totaled 14.5 millions tons, down 9 percent in terms of volume.

    China's ambitious plan for more nuclear power (International Herald Tribune, May 27)
    Nuclear power companies in China aim to join automobile and electronics makers as export powerhouses, but big domestic expansion plans may not leave them the capacity to make an overseas push for more than a decade, analysts say. A $1 billion deal signed last week with Russia to build and supply a uranium enrichment plant in China was another step toward civilian nuclear independence, less than two decades after China's first nuclear generator came on line.


    Information & Communications Technology


    China Overhauls Telecom's Industry; Aims To Increase Competition (Washington Post, May 27)
    China is restructuring its telecoms industry--a long-expected move that could bring increased competition to the market. The overhaul will see six of the country's main state-owned telecoms companies reduced to three, all of whom will now offer both fixed line and wireless services to China's 1.3 billion strong population, reports the NYT. Following the restructuring, China said it would, at last, issue 3G licenses. No timetable, however, was given for either the overhaul or the licenses?though analysts believe that the restructuring, at least, will happen by the end of the year. Currently, China's mobile market is dominated by China Mobile, which in recent years, has seen its subscriber base boom to around 400 million, unfettered as it is by any real competitor. The country's total number of mobile users stands at 583.5 million mobile phone users at the end of April, and is worth $105 billion. In comparison, China's fixed line market is losing customers, with government numbers showing that it shed 2.3 million people last year for a total of 365.4 million customers.

    ICT global business to exceed $3.7 trillion in 2008 (The Economic Times, May 20)
    Key findings of the Digital Planet report found that the top 10 ICT spending countries in descending order were: the United States, Japan, China, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Italy, Brazil, Canada and Spain. In 2008, China jumped to third place from fifth place in 2006, surpassing Germany and the United Kingdom with spending of USD 327 billion. The Americas will grow the slowest of the three broad regions charted in Digital Planet, at 4.0 per cent annually between 2007 and 2011, while ICT spending in the Asia-Pacific region and the Europe, Africa and the Middle East region will grow annually at 10.5 per cent and 5.0 per cent, respectively.

    Too good to be true? China plans to issue 3G licenses (FierceWireless, May 27)
    Could it really be true? China reportedly is ready to issue 3G licenses after six years of hints and delays. While announcing it plans to restructure China's telecom service providers, China's regulators also announced that three 3G licenses will be granted once the restructuring is complete (No one knows when that will be). China's regulators have teased the industry for the last six years over the prospect of 3G in China--a prospect that makes wireless vendors downright giddy given the billions of potential consumers in that country and especially now that sales have been slowing for the major vendors.

    India's IT hub wants new government to reboot Bangalore (Thaindian News, May 27)
    The booming knowledge industry in India's IT hub is relieved that the people of Karnataka have voted for stability and good governance. As after every election, the industry's expectations from the new government are high , especially in the case of Bangalore's infrastructure, which has crumbled under the weight of disparity between growth and development pace over the last four years. With the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) set to form its first government in a southern state, head honchos of IT and BT (biotech) sectors and captains of the manufacturing industry have hailed the decisive verdict that will allow a one-party rule for the next five years.


    Agriculture


    Quake-battered China inspired by good summer grain harvest (China View, May 27)
    For quake-shocked Chinese, perhaps no news is more inspiring than an anticipated good summer grain harvest. "If no severe disastrous weather conditions develop, the unit production of the nation's summer grain harvest will hit a record high with the total output rising for a fifth consecutive year," Agriculture Minister Sun Zhengcai has said. The expected good harvest will apparently add to China's grain reserves, which, including this year's output, was considered "more than enough to feed its people" by Zeng Liying, State Administration of Grain deputy director. "China's grain supply will not be affected as most of the quake-stricken areas are mountainous and unplantable," said Wan Fushi, an official with the Crop Production Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture, following the the magnitude-8 quake that jolted southwestern Sichuan Province two weeks ago.

    India to gain little in farm trade talks (Business Standard, May 27)
    While developing countries like India, Indonesia, China, and several other members of the G20 coalition are going to pay in Doha agriculture negotiations, the gains for farm exporting countries, especially Brazil, are huge, farm trade negotiators say. India is expected to secure some foothold in the EU sugar market because of a likely expansion of tariff rate quota (TRQs) in sugar which are going to be based on a controversial partial designation framework, diplomats add.


    Environment | Climate Change


    Chinese delegate: Developed countries should take the lead in reducing GHG emissions (China View, May 25)
    The Chinese delegate on Sunday called on developed countries to take the lead in cutting Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions and provide financial support and technology transfer to developing countries. According to the United Nations Frame Work Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) , the Kyoto Protocol as well as the Bali Roadmap, developed countries should first meet the above requirements, said Xie Zhenhua, head of the Chinese delegation, on the sideline of the G8 environment ministers meeting.

    Saving the environment needs priority: Maneka Gandhi (NDTV.com, May 27)
    Indian parliamentarian and environmental activist Maneka Gandhi has called for a world ''where we don't emit carbon at all''. A former environment minister in India, Gandhi told the media before this year's Energy Globe Award presentation ceremony Monday that while the word environment had become the most fashionable term to be used by companies and advertising agencies, not much was being done by governments to reverse the trends which are fast-forwarding the planet to destruction.

    India's Water Crisis: An Interview with Author Nitya Jacob (Environmental News Service, May 26)
    Former business and environmental journalist Nitya Jacob has undertaken an unusual task - an ecological travelogue across the Indian subcontinent focused on water. The Delhi-based writer's findings are stark. After writing a book on the subject, he says that in spite of surplus water, and one of the world's richest traditions of managing it, India's water crisis has reached critical levels.

    Kolkata girl to speak on climate change in Geneva (Express India, May 27)
    It started as a casual excursion to the Sunderbans with her geography teacher and today, Rishika Das Roy from Kolkata is all set to speak on climate change at the Global Humanitarian Forum, in Geneva beginning June 21. She is the only student who is going to represent India at the forum, founded by Kofi Annan.


    Health | Medicine


    Health Ministry: Quake-affected people to have emergency inoculation by mid-June (Xinhua, May 27)
    China's health authority said here Tuesday that emergency inoculation on people vulnerable to infectious diseases in quake zone would be completed by June 15. The emergency inoculation will help prevent such diseases as hepatitis A and encephalitis B, Sun Jiahai, a spokesman with the Ministry of Health, told a press conference held by the Information Office of the State Council.

    World Health Assembly hopes India will eradicate P1 poliovirus first (Thaindian News, May 26)
    The World Health Assembly (WHA) at Geneva hopes that India will be the first polio-endemic country to eradicate the most virulent P1 virus that leads to the disease and has asked the country to continue large-scale vaccination campaigns. "India, Afghanistan and Pakistan should implement large-scale mop-up vaccination campaigns to interrupt their final chains of poliovirus transmission, given the very low levels of P1 in these countries," a resolution adopted at the 61st WHA said last week.

    Earthquake lets China off the hook (Asia Times, May 27)
    The outpouring of global sympathy in the aftermath of the deadly Sichuan earthquake has shifted the focus away from China's role and influence in cyclone-stricken Myanmar, quieting critics. But the openness that Chinese leaders have displayed in the handling of their own natural disaster has emboldened Chinese citizens and the country's increasingly daring media to probe neighboring Myanmar's crisis from unexpected angles.

    Medical tourism flourishes in India (Xinhua, May 26)
    India is set to earn 1.87 billion U.S. dollars a year in foreign exchange from medical tourism by 2012, according to a study by the Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India (Assocham). With easy visa facilities to overseas patients coupled with best emerging medical infrastructure facilities, India's medical tourism can become a lead foreign exchange earner and the earnings will grow from the existing 800 million annually to 1.87 billion U.S. dollars a year by 2012, Assocham President Venugopal N. Dhoot said.


    Logistics | Transportation


    China's Li & Fung considering India's retail sector (The Financial Express, May 26)
    Chinese conglomerate Li & Fung Group on Monday said it is studying India's logistics and retail sectors to expand its presence in the country. The company, engaged in distribution, retail, logistics, private equity and properties businesses, currently sources consumer products worth 550 million dollars from India every year for its global operations.

    A number of companies are increasingly outsourcing their supply chain management functions in order to cut costs, focus on core business and improve deliveries, says a report by Frost & Sullivan, one of the world's leading business research and consulting firms.

    Online shopping & logistics: a win-win partnership (China Economic Net, May 19)
    Wu Tao, a resident near the third ring road of Haidian District, Beijing, has a personal experience of logistics delivery. In 2001, he purchased 6 books online for the first time, amounting over RMB50 yuan plus RMB10 yuan delivery charges. The most important factor that attracted him to purchase books on line is the low price, but the result of the first-time online shopping surprised him a lot, he had not received the books until the 10th day.

    Indonesia expects to help China deal with earthquake (China View, May 19)
    Indonesian expected that its experience in dealing with catastrophes could help China reduce the suffering of its people after the powerful earthquake, said an senior official with the Indonesian health ministry on Monday. Rahmi Utoro, senior official and expert in the ministry, said this at a ceremony for the launch of humanitarian assistance to China.


    Newsletter staff

    Publisher: L. Roxanne Russell
    Editor of Academic Resources: Dr. S.V. Char
    Co-Editor: Abhijit Agrawal
    Co-Editor: RJ Paulsick


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    ICA Institute, founded by Dr. Jagdish Sheth, is a non-profit research institute working to foster research and dissemination of knowledge on the rise of China and India and their impact on global markets, global resources and geopolitics of the world. The ICA Institute's mission is to generate new perspectives on the role of market and resource driven economic development. ICA Institute fosters interaction and dialogue between academic scholars, industry leaders and policy makers on the impact of emerging economies in general and China and India in particular. Specifically, ICA Institute is positioned to be a catalyst between faculty and students in International Business and industry leaders and managers.

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