Trading Signal
For Stocks
There is no change to our trading signal this week as the techinicals and fundamentals for stocks remain favorable.
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Market Performance
As Of Friday March 30, 2012
S&P 500 Index
Performance For Proprietary Investment Models
CWM Low Duration Bond Fund Model
+2.95% YTD 2012
-0.97% 2011
+7.25% 2010
+17.14% 2009
+8.49% 2008
+7.84% 2007
CWM Income Bond Fund Model
+1.742% YTD 2012
+3.88% 2011
+7.79% 2010
+22.74% 2009
+1.24% 2008
+6.30% 2007
CWM Global All Cap Dividend-Only
Stock Model
+7.569% YTD 2012 -0.02% 2011 +38.15% 2010 +91.34% 2009 -14.97% 2008 +24.08% 2007
CWM Emerging Markets Stock Model
+2.883% YTD 2012 -14.56% 2011 +30.88% 2010 +104.83% 2009 -14.41% 2008 +53.77% 2007
All fees are net of advisor fees. Past performance does not guarantee or imply future results.
Some results from a back test.
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7.5% Annual Income Is Available Today
 If you have cash sitting in a money market or savings, more than likely you are getting next to nothing in interest from your local bank.
If liquidity is not a concern, we have access to a Private Debt Fund that is part of the fixed income asset class (i.e. bonds) that is currently paying 7.5% per annum and is adjustable when interest rates eventually rise. FUND HIGHLIGHTS 7.5% Annual Rate (Adjustable) $5,000 Minimum Registered with the SEC 5 to 6 Year Maturity Hedge Against Higher Rates Hedge Against Inflation If interested, please give us a call today to find out more about this opportunity.
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Quote For The Month"All tyranny needs to gain a foothold is for people of good conscience to remain silent"
-Thomas Jefferson |
Don't Allow Your 401(K) Plan or Annuity To Be Unmanaged
Do you have a 401(K) plan and/or annuity sitting there doing nothing?
Are you confused as to which funds are the best to invest in at this time?
Now is not the time to Buy & Hold in the current market environment.
We Can Help!
Whether you are currently employed or retired, we have dozens of actively managed 401K and annuity models deployed and we can customize a model to fit your company's existing 401K plan as well.
Contact us for more details about our actively-managed programs to put your money back to work.
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Do you have multiple Financial Advisors managing your investments?
In this day and age it's common for many investors to have their investments spread across several financial advisory firms.
If you are one of those folks you should know that we provide a service, at no charge to you, that will summarize all of your investment holdings on one (1) simple report so that you can see how all your investments are doing.
If you're interested in participating in this free service give us a call or shoot us an email to get started today! |
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New Investment Paradigm
Spring 2012
Classes have started and run through April 19th
Every Thursday
7pm to 9pm
Guest Speakers include Professor Dr. Thomas Howard from the University of Denver, Anthony Baruffi from SNW Asset Management, and Richard Bornhoft with Equinox Investments. |
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- Both the Dow Jones Industrials and the S&P 500 indices went up record point amounts for the quarter. The Dow went up 996 points, or 8.1% while the S&P 500 went up 150.9 points, just over 12%. Crude futures were up 4.3% and gold was up 6.6%, despite the improving economy and bullish atmosphere for stocks. Natural gas, on the other hand, lost 29% to $2.13 per million btu's.
- The big winner was the NASDAQ Composite, up 18.67% YTD. Why? What starts with the letter A? Yes, Apple, which is now worth more than any other company and was up 48% for the quarter. But that was not the biggest winner in the Dow; that honor goes to Bank of America (BAC) which was up 72%!
- Treasury Bonds had their worst quarter since 2010, losing 1%. However, high-grade corporate bonds gained 2.48% and high-yield bonds (which tend to trade like stocks) were up 5.1%.
- There is one (1) sale in our GADCO individual stock model this week. No other models had trades.
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A Golden Opportunity?
We would like to thank one of our clients, Jim C., for sending us a report from CitiFX about gold.
Consider the following weekly gold chart:
- Gold has not managed to trade more than 1-3% below the 55 week moving average with the exception of 2008 (red) in the past decade
- This would strongly suggest that $1,585-$1,615 is the "buy zone"
- The price action reminds us of 2006 which saw Gold stabilise at the 55 week, turn back up and ultimately carry on to make new highs
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The 55 week moving average is at $1,633
Resistance levels are at $1,790-$1,802 followed by the trend high at $1,920 - Citi believes Gold is setting a platform around the 55 week moving average for a rally to their target for this year at $2,400.
Yes, they have a target for gold at $2,400. That would represent a 44% rise from Friday's price.
The graph above draws a parallel today with that of gold in 2006. The thought is that gold stablilzes at this price level and then resumes its march back up.
We feel there is a place for Gold in your portfolio and our clients currently own it.
Potential Returns with Rental Real Estate
One reason investors are thinking about buying large numbers of single-family homes and renting them out: It promises a relatively high return compared with other investments right now. Economists at Goldman Sachs estimate the annual yield on an investment on rental property nationwide averages about 6.3%, but can exceed 8% in cities that were hit hard during the housing bust, including Las Vegas, Detroit and Tampa. By contrast, mortgage bonds have average yields of just over 3%, and investment-grade corporate bonds are yielding about 3.5%, according the Barclays Capital U.S. Investment-Grade Index. Source - WSJ
Oil's Potential to Hurt the Recovery
"The world is not yet out of the danger zone," said Christine Lagarde, the IMF's managing director, speaking in Beijing. "The rising price of oil is a new threat that could derail the recovery. I think it is a major threat. Optimism must not lull us into a false sense of security. The global economy may be on a path to recovery, but there is not a great deal of room for maneuver and no room for policy mistakes." Source - Telegraph
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Tale of the Tape
There were some interesting technical developments last week, particularly on Monday.
The original support at the 1388 level was the key to this recent pattern. As in most bull markets, prices never pull back enough to let those who want to buy a dip get in. That is the true sign of a bull phase.
Comments from Ben Bernanke that mildly suggested that there could be a QE3 was just what market participants were looking for on Monday. This triggered a sharp rally, pushing the market up. The configuration suggests now that we have closed over 1414 that the market will continue toward the 1435.20/1442.95 levels.
There are higher targets now in play as the configuration suggests that a move toward the 1496/1511 levels is likely to unfold by the end of May. This hints of a 10 percent rally that will unfold before there will be a possibility for a top to form. It will take a close above the 1465 level to confirm this target.
It is interesting the same folks/analyst that were non-believers in the 2009 rally seem to be back to missing this rally, too. We expected to have a few more buys in our models this week instead of a sell. However, we do not try to outguess our trend-following program. As you have heard us say, "Process over emotion." |
Trades For The Week There is one trade in the models heading into next week. See below for details.
Global All-Cap Dividend-Only (GACDO) Stock Model
We are selling an international bank in the model this week. After the sale we will be long in six (6) of the eligible thirteen (13) stocks or 46.2% invested in the model.
The model is up +7.569% YTD.
Income Model (Bond Funds)
There are no trades in the model for next week. We continue to be long in eight (8) of the eligible fourteen (14) mutual funds or 57% invested in the model.
The model is up +1.742% YTD.
Emerging Markets Stock Model
No trades this week.
We remain long in eight (8) of the eligible twenty (20) stocks or 40.0% invested in the model.
The model is up +2.883% YTD.
Low Duration Income Model (Bond Funds)
There were no trades last week in this model.
We remain long in all six (6) eligible slots to the model or 100% invested.
The model is up +2.95% YTD.
Commodities
There are no new trades for next week. Shorts There are no new short trades nor do we own any shorts at this time.
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