Market Commentary for WH Cornerstone Clients
Greetings!
These are difficult times. One can
never underestimate how fear can affect the
market place. The entire stock market
has reacted. So far, this crisis has mainly been
concentrated on housing and a few financial
firms. Now it is starting to spill over to other
parts of the economy. Can it get
worse? Yes! Will it get worse?
We don't know, but we do not believe it will.
Recession talk can be a self-fulfilling
prophecy. However, strong productivity and
corporate balance sheets have enabled the
economy to remain quite solid. Consumer
confidence is starting to rebound. The IBD/TIPP
gauge of Economic Optimism shot up over 24%
in November. Falling gas prices, economic
rescue plans and the presidential election
have lifted confidence. Unfortunately, no one
has told the media and politicians.
The Federal Reserve has created a dramatic
increase in the monetary base.
Unprecedented! It will take time, but it's
setting the stage for the next expansion.
Big implosions often lead to big expansions.
In our opinion, the Federal Reserve has acted
wisely. We are lucky to have Ben Bernanke.
In addition to an Ivory League education, he
has written three textbooks on
macroeconomics and one on microeconomics.
Oddly enough, Bernanke's hobby is studying
the economic and political causes of the
Great Depression. He has written extensively
on this subject. We are in good hands.
The Fed's first move was to apply triage to
the banking crisis. In a short period of
time, the government has taken over Fannie
Mae, Freddie Mac and AIG. They orchestrated
accelerated mergers of Merrill Lynch, Bear
Stearns, Washington Mutual and Country Wide.
Their final dose of "antibiotics" (the
bailout) are just starting to take affect.
How bad is the banking system? The FDIC
reports only 13 bank failures from January
2007 through mid September 2008. By
comparison, there were 15 in 1999 and another
15 in 2000. The Savings & Loan
crisis produced failures in the
thousands.
Since the Great Depression, the average
annual number of bank failures has been 94.
Stats can be misleading, but we are way below
that level.
How bad is this mortgage meltdown?
Mortgage Bankers Association reports that
6.4% of mortgages are delinquent, that's
delinquent, not in foreclosure. Only
2.75% of all mortgages are in foreclosure.
During the Great Depression the
foreclosure rate was around 50%. Today, the
majority of foreclosures
are concentrated to the sub-prime market.
Sub-prime mortgages account for 12% of all
mortgages, but make up 52% of all foreclosures.
Across the board, home values are starting to
stabilize. The National Association of
Realtors reports median price of an existing
homes are starting to increase. They report
median prices are actually up 8.5% from the
low of February 2008. Supplementary data
supplied by the U.S. Census Bureau reports a
1.3 increase since December 2007. While
some geographic pockets may be experiencing
declines, aggregately, declines in U.S.
housing prices
have slowed.
How's the overall economy? The US
economy
grew at a rate of 3.35 in second quarter.
The average growth rate since the Great
Depression has been 3.4%. We have had 11
recessions since the Great Depression; right now
we are nowhere near the 12th. In fact, export
growth and non-defense capital goods orders
are running at levels that indicate
expansion. The Institute for Supply
Management Manufacturing Index (Manufacturing
ISM) is running at tolerable levels. Other
than employment (which is a lagging
indicator), it is difficult to find
indicators running at recessionary levels.
We have never seen a surge in the
monetary base like we are witnessing today.
On October 29, the Federal Open Market
Committee lowered the Fed Funds Rate to 1%.
This process created a title wave of
liquidity. It's the equivalent of a rich
relative dumping buckets of money at your
doorstep, with a sign attached that says
"Help Yourself". Year over year, the
monetary supply is up by 48%.
Unprecedented.
Money is used in most economic transactions.
Increased money supply works by lowering
interest rates, and putting more money in the
hands of consumers. It creates investment.
It makes consumers feel wealthier, which
increases spending. It doesn't happen
overnight. But as it unfolds businesses will
respond to their increased sales by ordering
more raw materials and increasing production.
The spread of business activity increases the
demand for labor and raises the demand for
capital goods. Stock market prices will
eventually begin to rise.
Over the last 82 years, the market has had
positive returns 72% of the time. It has been
down greater than 20% only 5 times. Markets
typically post a 25% return in the 12 months
following a correction.
From December 31, 1997 until December 31,
2007 the S&P 500 realized a cumulative return
of 77.56%. But, if you were out of the market
the results would be different.
- If you missed the 10 best days of the
market your annualized returned would have
been: 1.12%
- If you missed the 20 best days of the
market your annualized returned would have
been: (2.55%)
- If you missed the 30 best days of the
market your annualized returned would have
been: (5.72%)
Stay the course!
Please advise us promptly if there are
ever any changes in your financial situation
or investment objectives. Feel free to give
us a call if you want to discuss anything
further.
Sincerely, Paula Harris and Bill Harris, CFP