Development of Analysis Methods Using Recent Driving Study Data (SHRP 2 Report S2-S01A-RW-1)
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Greetings!
In anticipation of the large volume of data to be collected during the SHRP 2 naturalistic driving study (NDS), several projects were undertaken to demonstrate that it is possible to use existing NDS data and data from other sources to further the understanding of the risk factors associated with road crashes. More specifically, the four projects conducted under the title Development of Analysis Methods Using Recent Data examined the statistical relationship between surrogate measures of collisions (conflicts, critical incidents, near collisions, or roadside encroachment) and actual collisions. SHRP 2 Report S2-S01A-RW-1, Development of Analysis Methods Using Recent Data, presents the results of one of these projects. The primary objective of this work was to establish an analytic foundation for using conflicts and near crashes as surrogate measures. The project introduced a counterfactual analytic approach suggesting that a traffic event qualifies as a crash cause under two conditions: (a) both the event and the crash occurred and (b) had the event in question not occurred, then the crash also would not have occurred. Data from site-based field studies and vehicle studies were used to extend these ideas from a trajectory model to more complicated scenarios. The report introduces an approach to microscopic (i.e., individual event) modeling of crash related events, where driver actions, initial speeds, and vehicle locations are treated as inputs to a physical model describing vehicle motion. SHRP 2 Report S2-S01A-RW-1 is only available as an Adobe PDF.
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