Issue: #  29
 
May 2011
Bautis Financial
Dear ,
 

Welcome to the May 2011 issue of The Wealth Chronicle.   

 
Book Review  

The Big Secret for Small Investors by Joel Greenblatt

Everyone is looking for an edge to beat the markets.  PhD's to everyday investors stare at charts or dig through piles and piles of financial statements to try to find that edge to achieve a better return than the market or other investors.  Our feature article this month is a combination of a book review and an investment strategy. 

The author of The Big Secret for Small Investors, Joel Greenblatt is a Columbia finance professor and has written a few successful investing books: The Little Book That StillThe Big Secret Beats the Market and You can Be a Stock Market Genius.  Unlike his other books, The Big Secret for Small Investors is geared towards the individual investors rather than professional money managers.  The following is a summary and analysis of the book.

When it comes to investing, there are four options investors can take:

1.       Do it themselves - Most people, however, do not have the knowledge nor the time to be successful with this approach.  I mentioned this same thought above with respect to Retirement Planning.

2.       Give their money to a professional to invest - However most money managers underperform the market.

3.       Invest in Index Funds - Greenblatt claims that this merely stays pace with the market.

4.       Invest in Greenblatt's strategy for beating the market - more on this later.

The premise in the book is that to beat the market you do not have to attend a top business school, master economic and business news, or follow hundreds of expert opinions on TV or in the newspapers.  All you have to do is follow a simple concept- figure out the value of something and then pay a lot less for it.  This concept is not new and it is the fundamental premise of Value Investing utilized by people like Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffet.  Greenblatt's strategy of uncovering value, where to focus, and what to invest in is what he claims is groundbreaking.

How to determine the value of a company?

There are different ways to determine the value of a company:

1.       Relative Value

2.       Acquisition Value

3.       Liquidation Value

4.       Greenblatt's strategy

Which stocks to focus on?

It is impossible to analyze and have a deep understanding of every stock that exists. With more than 5000 of them there is just to many to get a handle on.  Greenblatt suggests focusing on smaller cap stocks with less than $1 billion market cap.  There is less competition in these stocks because a lot of the institutional mutual funds cannot touch these because of regulations amongst other things.

To determine which stocks to focus on, there are a few economic indictors to focus on.  A business needs working capital and fixed assets to operate.  You can get a good idea of what future returns of capital would be by comparing last year's earnings to the amount of working capital and fixed assets already in the business.  This analysis is what he uses to build his four mutual funds outlined below.

How is an index generated?

The S&P 500 and the Russell 1000 Index are constructed based upon the market cap of the individual companies in each index, and thus are categorized as Market Cap Weighted Indexes.  This means that in each of the index, companies with larger market capitalizations are weighted more heavily.  A company's market cap is calculated by multiplying its share price times the number of shares it has outstanding.  In the S&P 500 the largest 20 companies out of the 500 in the index)represent 4 percent of the companies, however these 20 companies represent 1/3 of the market value of the entire index.  When the stock price of a company rises, the index owns more of it and when it decreases the index owns less.  An equally weighted index would have outperformed the market cap weighted index by an average of 1.5-2% per year.

There is also something called a Fundamentally Weighted Index which is an index that is created weighted by attributes that reflect economic footprint rather than market cap. The FTSE RAFI 1000 Index is an example of this and was constructed using a 5 year average of company cash flows, sales, dividends, and book values.  Greenblatt wants to take the fundamentally weighted index one step further and create an index that weights stocks based on a combination of how cheap and how good the company is.

You can do the analysis in the sections above to generate your own portfolio or you can invest in one of Greenblatt's four funds that his company manages.  http://www.formulainvestingfunds.com/ 

  1. Formula Investing U.S. Value 1000 (Symbol FVVAX)
  2. Formula Investing International Value 400 (Symbol FNVAX)
  3. Formula Investing U.S. Value Select (Symbol FNSAX)
  4. Formula Investing International Value Select (Symbol FNAAX)

Conclusion

The book was a good read and easy to understand and follow the concepts.  Even though The Big Secret was only 150 pages it could have been even shorter, although Gotham Funds is trying to use Joel's notoriety to promote their four mutual funds.  I think the investment strategy in the book makes sense even though it is based mostly on historical data.

 

Feature Article 

Issues Impacting Retirement

US News& World Report published a list of the most important risks to your retirement.  In the article below I took what I think to be the top 7 risks and have added my comments to each of the risk - http://tinyurl.com/USNews 

 

1. Boomers turn 65 unprepared for retirement. Hope springs eternal and so do our best wishes for aging baby boomers. Every year, the Employee Benefit Research Institute and other think tanks issue research documenting how poorly Americans are prepared for retirement. We haven't saved enough money. We don't do a good job of investing the meager retirement funds we have scraped together. We don't know how much it will cost us to live in retirement. Then we repeat the exercise the following year, and the next, and the next. Seriously, are you prepared for retirement? Think about what this means for you and your family. Make a plan and carry it out.

 

Comment: There is not much more for me to add to this risk in addition to the fact that I created a whole program around it called The Retirement Fitness Challenge™.  My program helps people determine how prepared they are for retirement and puts a plan together detailing how they are going to have a successful retirement.  I have a seminar scheduled for Monday, July 18, 2011 at the Wood-Ridge Library to talk about taking on the financial challenges of retirement.  The article talks about repeating a process year after year, I would take it one step further and say we will soon have an epidemic with people not being prepared for retirement.

 

2. Americans don't understand finances and investments. Instead of studies about how unprepared we are for retirement, maybe we should spend the research money on financial literacy education. Without signing up for a Ph.D. curriculum, there are countless strong sources of financial education online as well as at a nearby college or community center.  

 

Comment: Managing your own finances can be daunting.  Most people do not have the time nor the education to take on things like inflation, rising health care costs, market volatility, and most importantly how to prevent outliving your money.  I agree that Financial Literacy should be pushed more and the first place I would start would be our grammar schools.  By teaching basics like budgeting and the benefits of investing future generations will be in much better shape financially than we are currently in.

 

3. Huge federal deficits threaten our way of life. Everyone is waiting for the shoe to fall on this one, but the joke may be on us. The shoe has already begun falling. The plummeting value of the dollar, which has worsened the oil-price hike, is directly linked to falling international confidence that the U.S. government will find the will or the way to seriously tackle our deficits. Our energy and economic futures are already being sapped a little bit every day. For many retirees, deficits will mean lower growth and a reduced quality of life for the rest of their lives.

 

Comment: If you go back in history you would see that the stock market has averaged an annual return of 11-12%.  With all of the issues in the economy mentioned above it will be hard pressed to achieve those returns going forward.  Another thing that will sap our economies growth is the fact that 2011 was the first year that Baby Boomers turned 65 years old.  There is going to be a daily rush to the exits and the population decline of working Americans will reduce the pace at which our economy grows.  One economist I follow who is very vocal on how the changing demographics will impact our economy is HS Dent (http://hsdent.com/)

 

5. When should I begin taking Social Security? In the meantime, the decision about when to begin taking Social Security tops the hit parade of financial issues that confront nearly all Americans approaching retirement. For people who are not in poor health or have family histories of early deaths, the best answer is usually to wait. Taking benefits as soon as possible at age 62 locks in payments that are only 75 percent of what they would be at age 66, which is defined as the full retirement age for the current wave of retirees. Delaying benefits at age 66 will raise them by 8 percent a year until age 70, after which benefits do not increase with age.  

 

Comment: Even though most people begin taking benefits once they hit 62, it often makes sense to delay the start of collecting your benefits.  By delaying the start of collecting your benefits you are locking in a bigger monthly paycheck from Social Security.  Of course there are factors that go into whether or not it makes to delay or not.  Social Security Planning is another topic that I have been hosting seminars on and the next one I have scheduled is on Tuesday, September 20, 2011 at the Ringwood Public Library.  To find out more about the seminar please visit my website (www.bautisfinancial.com/seminars.html)

 

6. Get ready for inflation. We have been seeing inflation around every corner for so many years that we've just about run out of corners. Core rates of inflation have been very low, and that's still the case despite the current run-up in food and energy prices. However, if the recovery gathers any steam - and we'd all better hope it does - we can expect inflation to become more than the specter it's been in past years. Retirees must plan for inflation. This means that the buying power of fixed incomes will erode over time. It means the real return of investments, after inflationary factors are considered, may decline.

 

Comment: Some asset classes (gold, inflation protected securities, real estate, commodities, ...) are better suited for inflation than others and it often makes sense to include those in your portfolio.  The advance of Exchange Traded Funds makes it much easier to include these asset classes in your portfolio.  What's ironic is that anyone who buys food or gas has already felt the bite of inflation over the past year.  It's only the government who claims that inflation is not rising.  They make that claim, because they measure "core inflation", which does not include the measurement of oil and food prices because they claim they are too volatile and would not give a true sense of inflation.

 

7. Look carefully at retirement fund fees. It can be very hard to determine how much you actually pay the firms that manage your retirement accounts and mutual funds. Often, the firm with a higher fee does not do a better job of managing your money. Because fees are charged year in and year out, they can have a big impact on long-term investment returns. The funds' prospectuses provide some information and federal disclosure rules are being strengthened. Morningstar has solid information as well, although some of its best tools are reserved for people with paid subscriptions.

Comment: One thing for certain is that you are paying a fee for every investment that you own in the portfolio. The fees may be small in the instances of index funds, or very large in the cases of some annuities. These fees are tough to undercover; however they will eat away at the money in your portfolio. Some people that I have worked with were shocked to learn what they were paying in commissions and fees for their investments. Disclosure laws are slowly improving, but often you have to look through hundred's of pages of a Prospectus to determine the true fees you are paying.  


Article 

Disability Insurance Awareness Month

 

Suffering an illness or injury that prevents you from working for an extended period happens a lot more frequent than people would imagine.  It does not have to be the catastrophic event that prevents you from working, it could be slipping on ice walking the dog.  On average you have a one in five chance of becoming disabled between the ages of 35 and 65.  If you are 30, you have a one in three chance of incurring a long-term disability before you turn 60.  You actually have a far greater chance of becoming disabled during your working career than you do of dying.  Yet far more Americans buy life insurance than they do a disability policy.  The table below compares the probabilities of becoming disabled versus dying for males and females at certain ages.

 

Disability Probabilities

Everyone that works and earns an income should become acquainted with the concept of disability insurance.  We are all vulnerable.  One way to think about the potential financial disaster that could lie ahead is to look at either your checkbook or your banking website if you pay bills online.  Look at all of the bills you pay each month and visualize how you would pay those bills if you did not have any income coming in.  Disability insurance helps replace a major portion of your income when you are sick or injured and unable to work.  Most people are quick to insure their possessions, such as their home and car, but do not think about insuring their income.  The cost for disability insurance is less than most people would think and I would be happy to explore disability insurance with you to determine if a policy makes sense.

Article 

New Office Location

Bautis Financial has moved to a new location.  It is centrally located in Rutherford on Route 17 North, right off of Route 3 and near the Highland Cross jug-handle.

New Office Address:   

301 Route 17 North, 8thFloor

Rutherford, NJ 07070

Office Phone: 201-842-7655

 

New Office Location 

 

However, please note, the mailing address will remain the same 

Marc Bautis

Bautis Financial

PO Box 187

Hasbrouck Heights, NJ 07604  

I look forward to meeting with you soon at the new office.


Article 

LinkedIn IPO Pops

LinkedIn

The business networking website LinkedIn went public on May 19,2011 and there was a feeding frenzy once the shares hit the open market.  LinkedIn's initial price was $45 a share.  By the time the market closed at 4PM on May 19 the shares were going for $94.25 representing a 109% gain.  It was the biggest internet IPO since Google's debut in 2004.

It has some people licking their chops waiting for the new wave of internet companies like, Facebook, Groupon, Zynga, and Twitter to go public. LinkedIn is now valued at over $8 billion dollars.   The hefty valuation has some people scratching their heads as their 2010 revenue was just $243 million and their earnings were only $15 million.  Some even have a more bearish outlook on it saying that LinkedIn's successful IPO will be a precursor to a bubble in the technology industry. 

A bubble forms when there is a spike in asset values within a particular industry.  The bubble is usually caused by exaggerated expectations of future growth.  Eventually the bubble pops and prices come crashing down.  An interesting story to read about bubbles is the one about the tulip mania in Holland in the 1600's.  http://www.businessweek.com/2000/00_17/b3678084.htm 

I am a big fan of the LinkedIn website and have been using it for a while now.  It is a great way to network and keep in touch with my professional contacts.  You can view my LinkedIn profile and connect with me at http://www.linkedin.com/in/marcbautis 

The Watercooler

 

The Royal Wedding, at what cost?

Prince William

U.K Economists calculate that the national holiday surrounding the festivities could cost the country between $2.5 billion to $10 billion in lost productivity.  Some calculate the cost could be up to $50 billion dollars.  Other analysts claim that the lost productivity is offset by the boost to sectors of the economy like tour operators, pubs, and champagne purveyors.

Municipal Bonds Tax Breaks

Muni bonds are a popular investment vehicle for retirees because the interest earned on the bond is triple tax exempt.  There is no federal tax paid, if you live in the state where the bond you own is issued, there is no state tax.  With our government finally realizing that they cannot continue to spend trillions and trillions of dollars they are going to be looking for areas to recoup money. One simple solution is to raise the tax rates.  They also have to go after other sources of income.  There is talk about doing away with the ability to deduct mortgage interest.  Also on the table is the favored tax status for municipal bonds.  If you own a municipal bond paying 3% interest the real interest you are earnings is most likely closer to 5% because you are not paying taxes on that interest.  If you own a corporate bond that pays 6% interest you have to pay tax on that income.

Microsoft purchased Skype for 8.5 Billion dollars 

On one side you can applaud Microsoft for trying to keep up with Apple and Google who have been dominating the mobile space lately.  On the other hand was it reallyMicrosoft necessary to pay 8.5 billion dollars for a company that has never made a profit.  In the last quarter Skype lost $7 million dollars.  One thing that didn't get much attention was that the purchase was made from overseas dollars.  Money that couldn't come back in the US without Microsoft having to pay taxes on it.

German Growth  

The financial crises in European countries like Greece, Portugal, and Spain have not stopped one countries economy from surging forward.  Germany has become the economic powerhouse of Europe.  The DAX - Germany's equivalent of the Dow Jones Industrial average rose 17 percent of the past 12 months, which is 11 percentange points better than the broader Stoxx Europe 600.  The GDP in Germany grew at 3.6% which s the fastest clip Germany has seen since their reunification in 1989.

 

Please contact me if you have any questions about the articles above or about your personal or business finances.

  

Sincerely,

Marc Bautis
Wealth Manager

office: 201-842-7655
cell: 201-221-6895
fax:  201-754-9760

Disclaimer:The information contained in this newsletter is for information purposes only and may not be suitable for your specific financial situation.  You should consult a financial advisor before making any investment decisions relating to the information contained in this newsletter

What's Inside?
The Big Secret
Impacting Retirement
Disability Insurance
New Office Location
Linkin IPO Pops
The Watercooler
Bautis Headshot
MEET MARC

Marc Bautis is a Wealth Manager specializing in working with young families as well as retirees and those nearing retirement. He understands that everyone wants to not only protect their principal, but also be sure that their money lasts.  He is committed and proud to deliver independent advice, always in the interest of his clients.

Marc is the creator of the Retirement Fitness Challenge™,  a program designed to be sure his clients enjoy the retirement years as they have always envisioned them.  Marc's program is designed to prevent outliving your money but also to minimize expenses during retirement and find the best time to start taking Social Security benefits. 

Marc is a graduate of Seton Hall University.  He is a Bergen County native, from Lyndhurst, where much of his extended family still resides. He currently lives in Hasbrouck Heights with his wife Katie and Old English Bulldog, Winnie.

 

Quick Links
BF_Website
 
Newsletter Archive
 
 blog

Facebook

Twitter

Business Network