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| Ideology Can't Go It Alone |
The elections are over, Democrats won a big victory and now Republicans begin the requisite internal struggle to fix what is wrong with the party. Some claim they've moved too far right; that religious conservatives are costing them votes. They argue a party with not a single U.S. House Member in New England and losing ground in other regions, must move to the middle or be forever relegated to minority status. Others will push for a stronger - not a muted - conservative message.
This is a neat exercise but it doesn't address why Republicans lost in 2008. Barack Obama didn't beat John McCain because he was too conservative or too moderate and George Bush's approval rating didn't sink to Nixonian levels because he tried to ramrod a socially conservative agenda. Ideology was not the GOP's downfall and they don't need to start jettisoning key elements of the Republican coalition.
The fact is, Republicans lost in 2008 because they were perceived as incompetent, out of touch and irrelevant. It appeared they had no solutions to the many problems America was facing. And when problems were addressed (gas prices plunging this fall, for instance) there was no effort to explain the success and hence no acknowledgement that the Administration's efforts may have played a role. If there is a crisis in the Republican Party, it is a crisis of confidence and communication, not of ideology. It is true that a national party must offer a coherent and substantive ideological platform and it must constantly challenge itself on those ideological tenets to keep the party vibrant and energized. But today Republicans need to restore America's confidence in their basic ability to solve problems.
It starts with candidates. In 2008 a majority of the House seats Republicans lost were in districts where George Bush got 54% or better in 2004. These were not Democrat strongholds cleaning House. These were seats Republicans should have held. There is no ideology that can overcome a climate where 85% of voters say the country is off on the wrong track, but strong candidates can transcend bad times; not in every state or district but certainly in a lot more places than Republicans have been winning lately.
There is no clearer evidence of this than Senator Susan Collins' (R-ME) remarkable reelection victory in November. Leading up to the 2008 election cycle, Susan was perceived as one of the top two or three most vulnerable U.S. Senators. She was running against the Democrats' top recruit, a well-funded Rhodes Scholar whose 12-year career in the House paralleled Susan's career in the Senate. Her opponent received the full support of the Democrat Party as well as numerous other groups which, beginning in the summer of 2008, ran millions of dollars worth of ads against Senator Collins. It should have been a barnburner.
Only it wasn't. Collins won by 23 points, as a Republican, while Barack Obama was beating John McCain in Maine by 18 points. Collins received 61% of the vote while John McCain garnered just 40%. No other GOP senator in the country ran as far ahead of McCain in their respective states.
So how did she do it? Well, what she didn't do was campaign as a moderate eschewing all ties to conservative thought. Instead, her campaign portrayed her as effective, independent and, most importantly, relevant. And she didn't just exhibit these traits once election year rolled around. She has worked tirelessly in the U.S. Senate, never missing a vote and passing an impressive amount of legislation by working with members of both parties. She understood from her first day in office that Maine voters are fiercely independent and that if her constituents knew she shared their independent streak, she could prosper in good times and weather the bad times when her party was suffering nationally.
Some might dismiss Susan Collins as a RINO (Republican in Name Only) or use some other disparaging term assigned to more moderate Republicans. But she voted for the Bush tax cuts, supported both John Roberts and Sam Alito for the Supreme Court and has a lifetime rating of 98% from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB). She was John McCain's co-chair in the state and never ran from the party label. Moreover, with Democrats holding an almost filibuster proof Senate, she opposes them on Card Check, labor's plan to do away with secret balloting when voting on whether or not to organize a union.
There were many tactical elements to Collins' victory but three television spots sum up the campaign and serve as a useful lesson for elected Republicans. The first was run in late summer and highlighted Susan's work to increase funding for diabetes research. The ad stated up front that "60,000 Mainers live with diabetes" and personalized Susan's work with comments from a young girl living with juvenile diabetes. It was an accomplishment spot but one with a special appeal to a very large constituency of stakeholders. As Republicans devise future microtargeting programs, they would do well to think more about what goes on in people's daily lives and how to address those needs. When it comes to finding a cure, diabetics don't much care about party or ideology. They want someone who's committed, caring and competent. Ideology is the foundation of any party, but ideology for ideology's sake is a loser. Republicans also have to demonstrate how they can impact people's lives in a positive way.
The second ad was in response to an attack by Susan's opponent, claiming she wanted to use U.S. tax dollars to fund Iraq reconstruction when Iraqis were sitting on $79 billion in oil revenues. Ordinarily that would get a lot of traction, especially against a Republican in 2008. But Susan had passed a law, along with two Democratic Senators (that pesky bi-partisan message), specifically requiring Iraqis to use their oil revenue for reconstruction costs. It made for a very effective response. And that's how the campaign went. Susan's record of accomplishment and independence was so strong that every attack was easily parried by the facts, which also served to reinforce the effectiveness message. With each negative ad, the Democrats increasingly appeared the hapless set up man in a vaudeville routine.
The final ad that put the finishing touches on the campaign was a simple one and it addressed three fundamental traits: effectiveness, hard work and independence. Called "Scorecard," it contrasted the difference between Susan and her opponent on attendance, legislation passed and partisanship. The ad pointed out that Collins had never missed a vote, had passed 55 bills and amendments and that she was rated one of the most bi-partisan members of the U.S. Senate. It summed up the Collins record neatly and sealed the victory.
In the end, Susan Collins won because she represents her state very well. Maine is not a Democratic or Republican state; a plurality of voters there registers as Independent. She has never run from her party, but neither is her success tied to rigid ideology. It is tied to the fact that she reflects the values, shares the hopes, and addresses the concerns of the voters back home ... and they know it. In 2008 that made all the difference. |
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Please feel free to call or email me with any questions.
Sincerely,
Hans Kaiser
Moore Information
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