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Welcome to Market Decisions'
Quarterly Economic Report - February 2012
Greetings,
This Groundhogs Day brings us more than a hopeful look to spring; it brings evidence of a thaw in consumer perceptions of the economy and a thaw in consumer behavior.
Of course, the results of one quarter's economic measures cannot be used to forecast a trend, but for the first time in three years, there is improvement in every measure. The four measures of consumer perceptions in this report are all up - some dramatically so. And our survey research among consumers is supported by other economic measures. Taxable sales, home sales and employment are all up as well. What people say is supported by evidence of what they are doing.
Whether the groundhog sees his shadow or not is subject to interpretation, but the data in this newsletter provides hard evidence that, at least for this quarter, prospects have improved.
I look forward to seeing results of the second quarter survey in April and I hope you do too.
Kind regards,
Curtis A. Mildner
President
PS. If you have suggestions, comments or ideas, please e-mail me at cmildner@marketdecisions.com or give me a call at 767-6440 x105.
PSS. Field three or more questions in The Maine Survey and get one FREE - save $595. For more information see the coupon below.
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At last, a rebound in consumer perceptions of the economy.
After three years of recession there is more than a hint of change in the mood of consumers. All the measures we track showed improvement.
Good or Bad Time for Major Purchases
The number of Maine residents that say now is a good time for a major purchase rose 33% from 30% to 40%.
Source: Market Decisions - Quarterly Maine Survey
Click on Graph to Enlarge
Personal Financial Situation - Better or Worse
The percentage of Mainers that say they are worse off than a year ago declined 18% from 49% to 40%. This is the lowest level since the first quarter of 2008.
Source: Market Decisions - Quarterly Maine Survey
Click on Graph to Enlarge
Maine Consumer Sentiment
This index is a composite of several measures and it is intended to forecast consumer activity approximately nine months out. The most recent measure is up, 64.1 vs. 57.4, from the previous quarter by an impressive 12%.
Source: Market Decisions - Quarterly Maine Survey
Click on Graph to Enlarge
Perceptions of Long Term Future of US Economy
The percentage of Mainers that expect bad times for the US economy declined from 65% to 49%, or 25%. This is one of the largest quarter-to-quarter declines in the twelve years of this survey.
Source: Market Decisions - Quarterly Maine Survey
Click on Graph to Enlarge
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Maine Home Sales Rise Again In December, But Remain Down Year to Date.
In December 2011 the number of housing units sold was 4.3% higher than in December 2010 and in each of the months since August, the number of homes has been higher than the same month in 2010. However, 2011 home sales still ended up 3.7% below 2010.
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Home Sales December 2011
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2010
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2011
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Change
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Units for Month
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761
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794
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4.3%
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Median $ Month
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172,000
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160,000
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-7.0%
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Units YTD
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10,213
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9,837
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-3.7%
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Median $ YTD
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$168,117
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$164,183
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-2.3%
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Source: Maine Association of Realtors
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Taxable Sales up 3.1% for the Year
Taxable sales rose in November 2011, 3.8% above November 2010. For 2011, taxable sales for the first eleven months of the year were up 3.1%
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Maine State Taxable Monthly Sales
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($ in Thousands, Through 11-2011)
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2010 YTD
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2011 YTD
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Change
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Total
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14,743,407
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15,193,793
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3.1%
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Personal
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13,079,405
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13,410,961
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2.5%
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Business Op
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1,664,002
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1,782,832
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7.1%
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Building
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1,771,918
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1,870,558
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5.6%
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Food Store
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1,409,671
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1,429,398
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1.4%
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General
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2,650,891
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2,634,671
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-0.6%
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Other
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1,744,706
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1,797,227
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3.0%
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Auto Trans
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3,016,109
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3,136,806
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4.0%
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Restaurant
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1,861,138
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1,898,278
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2.0%
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Lodging
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624,973
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644,024
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3.0%
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Rest & Lodge
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2,486,111
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2,542,302
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2.3%
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Total Taxable Maine Sales - $000,000
Source: Maine Revenue Service |
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Employment Increases - New Jobs Created
In December 2011, Maine unemployment fell to 7%, the lowest level since December 2008. More importantly, in December, some 2,911 more Mainers were employed than a year earlier, and 11,329 more than December 2009. At the rate of 5,664 jobs added per year (the rate of the last two years), Maine will match the number of employed in 2007 by July 2014.
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Maine Employment
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Civilian Labor Force
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Resident Employed
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Un-employed
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Un-employ
ment Rate
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Dec-11
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697,615
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648,946
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48,669
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7.0%
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Nov-11
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695,469
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646,504
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48,965
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7.0%
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Oct-11
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694,834
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644,145
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50,689
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7.3%
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Sept-11
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694,690
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642,793
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51,897
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7.5%
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Aug-11
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693,815
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641,202
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52,613
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7.6%
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July-11
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697,482
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640,884
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53,474
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7.7%
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Jun-11
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697,482
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643,460
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54,060
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7.8%
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May-11
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699,640
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645,831
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53,809
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7.7%
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Apr-11
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699,984
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647,096
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52,888
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7.6%
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Mar-11
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698,199
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645,359
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52,840
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7.6%
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Feb-11
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698,800
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646,428
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52,372
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7.5%
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Jan-11
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698,856
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646,434
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52,422
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7.5%
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2010 Avg.
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697,251
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641,978
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55,273
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7.9%
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2009 Avg.
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698,401
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641,189
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57,212
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8.2%
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2008 Avg.
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702,862
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665,057
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37,805
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5.4%
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2007 Avg.
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699,206
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666,305
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32,901
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4.7%
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2006 Avg.
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698,527
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665,856
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32,671
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4.7%
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2005 Avg.
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692,327
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658,507
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33,820
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4.9%
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2004 Avg.
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685,534
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653,847
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31,687
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4.6%
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2003 Avg.
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684,689
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650,458
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34,231
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5.0%
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2002 Avg.
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680,569
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650,943
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29,626
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4.4%
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2001 Avg.
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675,981
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650,699
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25,282
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3.7%
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Maine Unemployment Rate
Source: Maine Center for Workforce Research and Information
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Affordable Surveys of Mainers - Now Even More Affordable More than twenty years ago Market Decisions pioneered its quarterly Maine Survey. The Maine Survey includes the questions on consumer confidence in this report and questions on topics you never see - questions asked on behalf of clients. By adding questions to our quarterly survey, clients obtain information on Maine consumers and citizens - saving over conducting a full survey. Over the past twenty years hundreds of clients have used this tool. If you have never used the Maine Survey, and ask three questions or more in our January 2012 fielding and one question worth $595 is FREE. But hurry, our next survey is in January. For more information contact: Jen MacBride Jenm@
marketdecisions.com or 207-767-6440 x100 |
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75 Washington Avenue, Portland, ME 04101
207-767-6440
www.marketdecisions.com
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Field Three or More Maine Survey Questions,
Get One $595
Question for Free
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New to The Maine Survey?
Field three or more questions in the April 2012
Maine Survey and one multiple choice question is
free - save $595.
For more information, email Jen MacBride or call
207-767-6440 x100.
Applies to the April 15, 2011 Maine Survey
fielding only.
This is a way to introduce The Maine Survey to new clients; only new clients are eligible for the free question.
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