Welcome to Market Decisions'
Quarterly Economic Report - July 2011
For twenty years, Market Decisions has been collecting and analyzing consumer confidence data in Maine to help clients understand the economic mindset of consumers in the state.
In the past, this information was only available to subscribers. Now, we will bring this proprietary data to you at no charge and right to your desktop four times a year.
You'll also find other important economic indicators, available elsewhere and summarized here, to provide context for our consumer survey data.
Thank you for your interest, your business and your
commitment to creating a prosperous Maine.
Best,
Curtis A. Mildner
President
PS. If you have suggestions, comments or ideas, please e-mail me at cmildner@marketdecisions.com or give me a call at 767-6440 x105.
PSS. Book two focus groups between now and
September 10, 2011 and receive one room
rental free - a $500 value. |
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Maine Consumers Remain Pessimistic,
Concern about National Economy Increases
Maine consumers remained pessimistic in July 2011. There is no sign of improved perceptions of the economy that would result in increased consumer spending. While there is little change in consumer perceptions of the Maine economy, perceptions of the national economy have worsened significantly.
Good or Bad Time for Major Purchases
Almost half (47%) of Maine residents say that now is a bad time to make a major purchase. While this figure is well below the peak of 63% reached in October 2008, the percentage has risen for two straight quarters.
Click on Graph to Enlarge
Personal Financial Situation - Better or Worse
The percentage of Mainers that say they are worse off than a year ago held steady at 43% as compared to 44% the previous quarter. Although lower than the historic high of 57% in October 2008, it shows that many consumers are pessimistic about their personal financial situation. Only about one in five (23%) say they will be better off a year from now. This has changed little from the 19% that said they will be better off in April 2008.
Click on Graph to Enlarge
Maine Consumer Sentiment
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This index is a composite of several measures developed at the University of Michigan and has been in use since the 1940's. While Consumer Sentiment has risen from its historic low in July 2008, it has only rebounded to a low level and has remained there. This suggests that an improvement in consumer spending won't be coming soon.
Click on Graph to Enlarge |
Perceptions of Long-Term Future of US Economy
Mainers' perceptions of the US economy have steadily worsened; 47% indicated in January 2011 that they expected bad times in the next five years, 56% in April 2011, and 58% in July 2011. The number that expect good times, 23%, is hovering near its historic low of 18% reached in July 2008.
Click on Graph to Enlarge |
Maine Home Sales Tumble 21%
Maine home sales tumbled 21.4% and prices fell 1.8% in June 2011 as compared with June 2010, as realtors sold 268 fewer homes. Across the US, home sales were down 7.4% from a year earlier.
Year-to-date home sales in Maine have fallen 18% and the median price is down 2%.
Source: Maine Association of Realtors
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June 2010-2011 Maine Home Sales
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2010 |
2011 |
Change |
% Change | |
Units Sold |
1,253 |
985 |
268 |
-21.4% | |
Median Price |
$170,000 |
$167,000 |
-$3,000 |
-1.8% |
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Maine Retail Sales Rise 2%
Overall, Maine taxable sales rose 2% in May 2011 as compared with May 2010. Business sales tax (12%), transportation (5%), building materials (3%) and lodging (3%) had significant increases. Source: Maine Revenue Services/State Planning Office
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Maine State Taxable Monthly Sales ( $ in Thousands) |
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May-10 |
May-11 |
Chng | |
Building Supply |
181,259 |
186,794 |
3% | |
Food Store: snacks & non- food |
127,878 |
123,657 |
-3% | |
General: clothes, furniture & electronics |
236,617 |
232,266 |
-2% | |
Misc: Jewelry, sporting goods, books, gifts, etc. |
158,316 |
160,459 |
1% | |
Trans: auto, parts and boat sales |
285,438 |
300,825 |
5% | |
Restaurant |
162,538 |
159,042 |
-2% | |
Lodging |
41,298 |
42,699 |
3% | |
Total Personal |
1,193,343 |
1,205,743 |
1% | |
Business Op |
139,484 |
156,225 |
12% | |
Total |
1,332,827 |
1,361,967 |
2% |
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Unemployment Increases Slightly to 7.8%
While unemployment in June 2011 is still a bit lower than in 2010, in five of the last six months, the number of unemployed has increased. Maine has lost about 1,500 jobs this year.
National unemployment is nearly a point and a half higher at 9.2%. Nevada and California have the highest levels of unemployment at 12.5% and 11.8% respectively. In New England, Maine is in the middle of the pack. New Hampshire is lowest at 4.9% and Rhode Island highest at 10.8%
Source: Maine Center for Workforce Research and Information
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Maine Employment |
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Civilian Labor Force |
Resident Employed |
Un-employed |
Un-employ
ment Rate | |
6-11 |
697,520 |
643,460 |
54,060 |
7.8% | |
5-11 |
699,640 |
645,831 |
53,809 |
7.7% | |
4-11 |
699,984 |
647,096 |
52,888 |
7.6% | |
3-11 |
698,199 |
645,359 |
52,840 |
7.6% | |
2-11 |
698,800 |
646,428 |
52,372 |
7.5% | |
1-11 |
698,856 |
646,434 |
52,422 |
7.5% | |
2010 |
697,251 |
641,978 |
55,273 |
7.9% | |
2009 |
698,401 |
641,189 |
57,212 |
8.2% | |
2008 |
702,862 |
665,057 |
37,805 |
5.4% | |
2007 |
699,206 |
666,305 |
32,901 |
4.7% | |
2006 |
698,527 |
665,856 |
32,671 |
4.7% | |
2005 |
692,327 |
658,507 |
33,820 |
4.9% | |
2004 |
685,534 |
653,847 |
31,687 |
4.6% | |
2003 |
684,689 |
650,458 |
34,231 |
5.0% | |
2002 |
680,569 |
650,943 |
29,626 |
4.4% | |
2001 |
675,981 |
650,699 |
25,282 |
3.7% |
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Could your advertising be counterproductive? Ten years ago we conducted a series of focus groups for a client and tested the TV ads of competitors. The claims in one ad by a competitor seemed, to the customers, like "snake oil." Obviously, this competitor never did any testing, as ads with this same counterproductive message are still running! More recently, we completed another set of focus groups on ads and found that while the messages were the right ones, the ads were so poorly executed that they created the impression that the company was "fly by night." After testing scores of ads, I can say with certainty that objective customer insight, not our personal intuition, is the best means to assure effective ads. Want to learn more about advertising testing? Please here click to e-mail Curtis Mildner Or call 767-6440 x105
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