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If you knew you had a one-in-three chance of succeeding with a competitive attack, would you still launch one? There are no empirical means of calculating the percentage of how many format-flips fail since industry publications never list "Ratings Misfires by Market." Rest assured the data would be unsettling.
In military war-planning there exists a universal trinity for launching a campaign against an opponent: Surprise, Violence, and Speed. However out of fashion for some, business can never overdo the study of battle tenets applied to competitive relationships; there is an uncanny nexus. Consider these three elements related to a format flip in any market.
About 50 percent of all surprise flips "surprise" no one. Thus, one of the cardinal rules of warfare is either ignored or carelessly cast away through poor security, loose talk
(including vendors and resource people), and easily read tip-offs to the marketplace. If you want to diminish your chances for a frontal or flanker coup, just open the door for advance notice inside your opponent's camp. Insurgencies never succeed when the opposition is awake and prepared to preempt and block your strategy. This happens all too often and limits the challenger before the battle ever really begins.
"Violence" translates to competitive attacks in business as devastatingly good product launched with minimal mistakes, then surged in the opening hours and days. When you achieve complete tactical surprise by carpet bombing your competitor with your new brand through flawless execution, you achieve the shock-and-awe equivalent of an unexpected artillery barrage. For even well established savvy defenders of format leadership in a market, it will at best be disquieting, at worst injurious.
When a competitor achieves a shock-and-awe launch reinforced with huge external marketing, he or she achieves market disequilibrium; the cards are reshuffled at least temporarily. Most defenders of first-place will tell you "It's okay, we have a plan," until someone punches them in the face. Unfortunately, too often execution elements aren't in place, planning is incomplete, and counter insurgency marketing is watered down or non-existent.
Conversely for the attacker, it is better to postpone a win than to design a defeat on schedule. Plan calmly, attack with all-out emotion.
"Speed" in the world of media means moving with rapier quickness to "pour it on." The excitement of a format launch is stimulating and rewarding but like a Seal team temporarily secured on a beach, you can't stay there.
Successful attacks hit hard, then move rapidly to expand their new brand's appeal in order to traverse the time-honored Marketing Bridge, moving from Unawareness to Awareness to Comprehension to Conviction and finally, to Action (whereby a listener consciously decides to alter their daily and weekly first-tune habits). In a world of rapid change via social media and instant connection, for many, morale passes overnight from �lan' to desperation.
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