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Leno v. Coco
A Case Study in Research, Strategy, and Trends
Thanks to his interview on 60 Minutes and the announcement that he'd be launching a new show on TBS, Coco's back in the news. The circumstances of his rise and fall at NBC and now his reincarnation on cable are a good case study in audience research, business strategy, and media trends.
The audience research dimension of the Leno Coco v. Leno case is a tasty stew of television personalities and genres, day-parts, demographics, and lead-ins. Though many of the explanations given for the mediocre ratings of Conan's Tonight Show focused on one or another of these factors, I would argue all of them are interconnected in a complex web. It may be true, for example, that the somewhat older and less urban audience of the Emerson-trained Jay Leno had difficulty warming up to the Harvard-educated comedian who took his place. But it should also be acknowledged that the initial drop-off in the nightly audience of NBC affiliates was taking place at 10PM (not 11:30PM) meaning that there were fewer viewers to deliver to local news, and fewer local news viewers to deliver to Conan. Scheduling a nightly comedy-variety show at 10PM was a worthy experiment for NBC, and one could argue (at least from a short-term financial perspective) even a successful one; but the audience appetite for moving, witty dramas and intelligent, suspenseful procedurals at 10PM continues to run strong. The underestimation of this appetite--rather than any specific failing on the part of either Jay or Conan--was probably the main flaw in the plan.
The business strategy dimension of the case goes to the question: How does a business balance the interests of stakeholders and shareholders? In spite of mediocre ratings, The Jay Leno Show made money, an outcome that should have made NBC's corporate parents at GE--and GE's shareholders--very happy. And given time, The Tonight Show with Conan O'Brien might have become profitable too. But for one very important group of stakeholders--the local television stations that carry NBC's programming--all of that was very much beside the point. The decline in late local news audiences for many NBC affiliates was significant, and it was undeniable in most cases that the shift in the network's primetime strategy (i.e., from dramas and news magazines to the Leno show at 10PM) was to blame. The threat of NBC's affiliate in Leno's hometown not to carry his show--months before the new schedule launched--was like the proverbial canary in the coal mine. WHDH ultimately relented and carried the show, but months later their protests turned out to have been prescient, as NBC scrapped the whole experiment and returned to the status quo. Could all of this unpleasantness have been avoided through a more thorough consultation with local station stakeholders beforehand? It's impossible to know with certainty, but what is clear is that this is not a problem that the cable networks face, since the "affiliates" in the so-called "cable model" are the cable, satellite and telco companies whose agenda is entirely different than that of local television stations: Not advertising revenue primarily, but the consistent and reliable stream of subscriber fees these companies collect from consumers every month.
Which brings us to the last dimension of the case: media trends. When Conan announced he'd inked a deal with TBS, mindless media mavens howled about the "shocking" news that Conan would "settle" for cable. But as anyone who has been conducting research with television viewers over the past decade knows: Viewers no longer draw the kinds of sharp distinctions between "cable TV" and "network television" they once did. Viewers watch the programs they like wherever they find them, and the vernacular of television is filled with as many titles from the cable side as from the broadcast side. At over 100 million subscribers, TBS is delivered to nearly 90% of US TV households and is the top-rated cable network among 18-49 year olds. NBC's Tonight Show might have been a more prestigious and storied platform for Conan, but in the end, chances are good that Team Coco will follow their hero to TBS.
And, what about Jay Leno? His new boss will be--in a weird twist of fate--Comcast!
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What Ever Happened To . . .
. . . Josh Conway? 
Many of you have surely had the pleasure of working with our adjunct Senior Research Analyst, Josh Conway, as recently as late last
year. But now, Josh is otherwise engaged. Having recently signed a lease on a space in
West Newton Square, Josh has achieved his long held goal of
opening a different kind of gym.
Befitting Josh's own thoughtful personality, his new exercise enterprise speaks to an encompassing philosophy of health - one that deals not just
with physical health, but mental and social as well.
Gymnasium is, as its founder notes, "simply a
place to learn, to move, to share, and to cultivate vitality, a thoughtful
mind, and connections among a community of interesting, purposeful folks."
Gymnasium feature
classes, a library, a café and of course, a station-based work out space where
patrons can practice the "inspired perspiration" philosophy that Josh lives and
preaches.
Links:
Gymnasium Website
http://www.inspiredperspiration.com
Gymnasium Blog
http://www.inspiredperspiration.com/blog/ Gymnasium Facebook Fan Page
http://www.facebook.com/pages/West-Newton-MA/Gymnasium/187867156908?ref=ts
(...and if you're serious about working out, skip the following section...!)
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Cardamom
Buns
Ingredients:
The dough
½ cup milk
1 ½ tsp active dry yeast
1/8 cup warm water (about 105-115 degrees Fahrenheit)
¼ cup sugar
½ tsp crushed cardamom seeds
½ tsp salt
1 large egg, lightly beaten
2 ½ to 3 cups all-purpose flour
4 tbsp butter, melted
The filling
1/3 cup dark brown sugar, packed
1/4 tsp crushed cardamom seeds
1/8 tsp ground allspice
pinch salt
3 tbsp butter, softened
The glaze
3/4 cup powdered sugar, sifted
1 tbsp milk
1 ½ tsp melted butter
½ tsp pure vanilla extract
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Directions:
1. Put the milk in a small saucepan and scald it (heat until a small ring of bubbles forms along the edge of the pan). Remove the pan from the heat and let
cool until it is 105 to 115 degrees.
2. In a large bowl, mix the yeast into the warm water and let
stand until the yeast is dissolved and the mixture looks creamy. Whisk in the
milk, sugar, cardamom, salt and eggs. Mix
in 1 cup of flour and beat until smooth. Beat in the butter. Add the additional flour, ½ cup at a time
until the dough is stiff but not dry.
3. Turn the dough out onto a lightly floured surface and knead
for approximately 10 minutes. The dough will be smooth and lose most of its
stickiness. Do not add too much bench flour or the dough will become too dry.
4. Shape the dough into a smooth ball and place in a lightly
greased bowl, turning the dough to ensure the top is oiled as well. Cover the
bowl tightly with plastic wrap and a warm, damp kitchen towel and let rise at
room temperature until doubled in bulk (1 - 2 hours depending on the day and
the dough).
5. To make the filling, combine the brown sugar, cardamom,
allspice and salt in a small bowl and set aside. Lightly grease a 9 inch cake
pan.
6. Once the dough is risen, turn it onto a clean surface and
lightly knead just to redistribute the air bubbles.
7. To form the buns, roll the dough into a 16 x
10 inch rectangle. Spread the softened butter over the dough, leaving a 1/2
inch section at the top of the dough unbuttered. Sprinkle buttered area with
sugar spice mixture and lightly pat down to ensure the coat is even and does
not fall out during rolling. Starting at the bottom (this is the long end)
tightly roll the dough and pinch the unbuttered end closed. Place the roll seam
side down and cut it into 8 equal pieces.
8. Place buns in the buttered pan cut sides down; they won't
touch. Cover the pan tightly with plastic wrap and let rise until puffy but not
doubled (about 1 to 1 ½ hours).
9. Bake in a preheated 375 degree oven for 20 to 25 minutes
until golden brown. Let cool several minutes on a cooling rack before
icing.
10. Combine all the icing ingredients in a small bowl until
smooth. Liberally spread over the warm buns. Serve immediately.
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Bridging
The Gap:
The Bridgespan Group's Labor Market Study
City
Square Associates has done extensive research on behalf of public
media and other nonprofit organizations over the past decade, but within the past year, we found ourselves
tackling a different dimension of the not-for-profit world, with a focus on
management hiring trends.
The
Bridgespan Group's Bridgestar Project (sponsored by American Express) hired City
Square to conduct an online survey with 433 executive directors of nonprofits
reaching across a wide swath of nonprofit classifications. The goal was to
better understand the state of hiring trends for upper level management, with a special focus on those who transition from the for-profit world to the not-for-profit world, a group aptly named "bridgers."
What We Learned
At the start of 2009, based on the survey, we estimated 77,000 management positions to be vacant, a
deficit that far exceeded a 2006 projection of 24,000 open
positions. The shrinkage of an aging talent pool (retiring boomers) appears to have combined with increased organizational complexity in many nonprofits to bring about this leadership deficit.
It's clear that bridging could help to shrink this deficit, but the survey revealed that bridging
is a little more complicated than filling all those vacant non-profit management roles with talent from the for-profit sector."Cultural fit" winds up playing a large part in decisions about prospective hires
from outside the not-for-profit sector. Many of the
nonprofit leaders we surveyed told us that the functional, best practices
knowledge that "bridgers" bring with them from the for-profit sector are
quite desirable; however, the candidate's alignment with and passion for the mission of
the organization trumps functional expertise.
David
Simms, a partner at Bridgespan explained, "Functional skills will get you on
the short list, but cultural fit can seal the deal."
Bridging
from the for-profit to nonprofit sector represents a cultural shift for bridgers, and
the reality of the situation is that nonprofits
generally offer less compensation and/or benefits for upper level management, fewer
resources to work with, and fundraising as the primary revenue model. These factors represent significant hurdles for prospective bridgers and the nonprofits that need
them. Clearly the challenge will be finding ways to make the journey across that bridge just a little less harrowing.
Links:
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