Recent
positive news gives us hope
Growth in service sector: The
U.S. service sector grew for a second straight month in October, but at a
slower pace than in September. The Institute for Supply Management said its
service index dipped to 50.6 in October, from 50.9 in September. Any reading
above 50 signals growth. The index tracks the country's hospitals, retailers,
financial services companies and truckers.
Growth in manufacturing: The ISM
also reported that its gauge of manufacturing activity grew in October at the
fastest pace in more than three years - faster than expected. The ISM index
rose to 55.7 in October, the third straight reading above 50, which signals
growth. Businesses' replenishing stockpiles, higher demand for American exports
and support from the government's $787 billion stimulus program were said to be
behind the numbers.
Factory orders rose: The Commerce
Department said orders to U.S. factories rebounded 0.9% in September, helped by
strength in autos, heavy machinery and military aircraft. The fifth increase in
six months bolstered hopes that a revival in manufacturing will help support an
overall economic recovery. The gain was thought to be related to a need to
stabilize inventories after huge liquidation in the first part of the year. The
worry is that if consumer spending falters in coming months, orders will drop
again.
Auto sales gained some traction: After
a nearly two-year industry slump, the U.S. auto sector is showing signs of
recovery with major automakers reporting higher sales for the month of October,
lead by rising customer demand for new cars and crossover utility vehicles. GM's
U.S. sales rose 4.7% from October 2008, while Detroit rival Ford Motor Co. showed
a 3% gain. Japanese rival Toyota Motor Corp. said its sales edged up less than
1%. (Chrysler's sales fell 30%, though they improved from September.) The
biggest winners were Hyundai, based in South Korea, whose sales jumped an
astonishing 49%, due largely to its fuel-efficient Elantra sedan, and Japanese
automaker Subaru, with a 41% gain from strong sales of its Outback and Forester
models. Automakers considered October a test of the auto market, after the
government's "Cash for Clunkers" sparked a huge demand over the summer,
followed by a natural drop in September after the program ended. This news was
a positive surprise.
Retail sales beat expectations: Same-store
sales at many retailers were stronger than expected in September. U.S.
retailers, including Macy's Inc. and Abercrombie & Fitch, surprised Wall
Street with better-than-expected September sales. To some, this suggested that shoppers
were loosening purse strings before the all-important holiday season. Sales of
clothing for back-to-school needs fueled some performance, as consumers were
said to be dipping their toes back into the discretionary-spending waters. Some
16 of 24 retailers beat Wall Street estimates. Limited (1%) and Children's
Place (4%) were among those retailers that posted same-store sales increases,
and beat expectations. Even those that showed same-store declines did so more
moderately than expected. For example, Macy's sales fell 2.3% -- half as much
as analysts anticipated. Teen apparel retailer Abercrombie saw same-store sales
drop 18%, but that was better than the 21% decline predicted by analysts. Aeropostale
Inc., American Eagle Outfitters Inc. and Gymboree Corp. raised their quarterly
profit forecasts.
Existing home sales are looking
up: the National Association of Realtors said the volume of signed
contracts to buy previously occupied homes rose 6.1% in September to a reading
of 110.1 - the eighth straight monthly gain. That's the highest level since
December 2006. And it's more than 21% above a year ago. The improvement has
been aided by federal intervention to lower mortgage rates and bring more
buyers into the market. For example, the contracts to buy homes rose as buyers
scrambled to qualify for a tax credit for first-time buyers. Lawrence Yun,
chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, says, "Much of the
momentum is from people responding to the first-time buyer tax credit." New home sales constitute only about 10% of
all home sales. The rest -- the biggest portion -- are made up of existing home
sales.
Congress is focused on housing: The
Senate just voted to extend the $8,000 tax credit for first-time buyers to
contracts signed by April 30, 2010 and closed by June 30, 2010. You may recall
we suggested in a prior article that this extension was crucial. The bill also
created a $6,500 credit for those who buy a home after owning one for the last
five years. The current credit defines a first-time homebuyer as someone who
has not owned a residence within the past three years. Additionally, Congress
passed a stopgap measure that will keep in place for now the significantly
higher loan limits for federally backed mortgage loans. In the U.S., housing (and
everything associated with it) accounts for 40% of GDP, so it stands to reason
that if you stimulate housing the economy will follow.
Economy is expanding: The
overall economy, as measured by the gross domestic product, expanded at a 3.5%
rate in the July-September quarter, offering evidence that the longest
recession since the 1930s was ending. David Wyss, chief economist at Standard
& Poor's in New York, said he expects GDP growth to slow to around 1.7% in
the current quarter and to remain sluggish in the first half of next year.
Other economists are more optimistic, with some forecasting that GDP growth
could come in around 3% in the current quarter.
Some encouraging signs from the job market: The number of new unemployment benefit claimants has fallen
each week for the past month, and the number of people on continuing benefits
fell to its lowest level in half a year. On Wednesday, the Senate voted
unanimously to lengthen unemployment benefits by up to 20 weeks. The bill would
extend jobless benefits in all states by 14 weeks, with another six weeks added
for those who live in states with unemployment greater than 8.5%. The proposal,
which needs to pass the House, would be funded by extending a longstanding
federal unemployment tax on employers through 2011.The measure would apply to
those whose benefits will run out by Dec. 31, which is nearly two million
people, according to Senate estimates. Those whose checks have already stopped
would be able to reapply for another round.
The market has rallied: A
year ago in October 2008, the S&P 500 was at 839. A year later (Oct. 2009),
it was at 1,101. The S&P 500 is considered a bellwether for the American
economy