November 2011

The EVM Newsletter™
from Management Technologies
In This Issue
US DoD Proposes New EVM Reports
Save $150 on EVP exam
Review of PMI Practice Standard on EVM
EVM and Spaghetti
MS Project's New Questionable Feature
IPMC Keynote Comments



New AACE Approved Education Providers Logo


AACE International Approved Education Providers (AEPs) have a new logo. Look for it on AEP websites and promotional material when seeking AACE AEPs. 





Back to Top

Management Technologies
> EVM Training & Workshops

> EVPrep™ Exam Prep Workshops and Study Guide

> EVMS Process Engineering 

>Third Party EVMS Certification   



Don't miss the next EVM Newsletter


You can opt out at any time. Your e-mail address will not be shared with anyone.


(Add to your white list.)


Past Newsletters


Back to top

Quotable Quote



"When good enough is not good enough, we punt the problems ahead."


David L. Wang, Director,
The  Aerospace Corp 


Back to top

Forward to a friend 
Did you find this newsletter interesting? Forward it to a friend!

US DoD To Revise EVM Reporting Formats

The US DoD has released a draft Data Item Description (DiD) DI-MGMT-81466B that defines an Integrated Program Management Report.


This draft updates and combines DI-MGMT-81466A Contract Performance Report (CPR) and DI-MGMT-81650 Integrated Master Schedule (IMS). The US National Defense Industrial Association (NDIA) will be receiving and consolidating comments from its member companies.


Don't have an NDIA affiliation? Your comments can be emailed to the US DoD PARCA office.


Comments must be received by January 31, 2012



EVM3The Earned Value Management Maturity Model®
Books 24 x 7 
EVM3 cover
The Earned Value Management Maturity Model book is now available from Books 24x7, as well as from Management Concepts.

Back to Top


Save $150 with Management Technologies' EVPrep Workshop

AACE recently announced that attendees at AACE Approved Education Providers (AEP) events would recieve no-cost temporary membership in AACE.


This policy allows these attendees to apply for AACE certification exams at the AACE member price ($150 less than the non-member price).


If you are planning on taking the EVP exam here is how to save $150.


  1. Attend our EVPrep exam prep workshop
  2. Get your temporary member e-mail from AACE.
  3. Apply to take the EVP exam at AACE member rates
  4. Save $150.

Back to Top

EVM Schedule Adherence and CPI and SPI (t)Statistical Forecasting

The EzEVM™ workbook has provided projects and firms a low cost solution to performing EVM and refining their EVM processes.


The EzEVM MSExcel workbook template now includes "Schedule Adherence" and statistical forecasting of final CPI and SPI(t).


EVM data can be entered from any EVM software to provide these valuable analysis products as well as traditional EVM indicators.



Back to top


 R.E.P. logo


Back to top



Welcome to the October EVM Newsletter.  me2011

You would not think that spaghetti and EVM can be discussed in the same article. There is a connection. It has to do with possible outcomes. It's EVM Tidbit #27.


The Integrated Program Management Conference (IPMC) was just held in MD in early November. This month I highlight the sobering comments from the kickoff keynote speaker regarding the USA financial future. Not EVM, but interesting none the less.


Management Technologies is now on Facebook and LinkedIn.


Like us on Facebook  View our profile on LinkedIn


As promised last month, there is a review of the new PMI® Practice Standard on Earned Value Management.


Next month we'll review Earned Value Management Using Microsoft Office Project: A Guide for Managing Any Size Project Effectively


Microsoft Project has a new but questionable feature that you probably want to disable.


US DoD is asking for comments on revised and new EVM and schedule reporting formats.


Can statistics be applied to EVM? EAC=BAC/CPI is not statistics although some call it a statistical forecast. It's just math. But can one apply rigorous statistical analysis to EVM data. Yes, but not without some new analytical tools.


Our subscriber list is over 2,000. If you want to share a story or an idea consider writing 50-100 words on the subject. You can help make this newsletter interesting by contributing news about your activities in EVM, your company, product announcements, or your projects. Each month starts with a blank sheet, we don't make this stuff up! Send news to me at

Ray Stratton, PMP,EVP
Review of PMI Practice Standard on EVM


Project Management Institute, ISBN: 979-1-935589-35-8,151 pages,EVP PS EVM Cover soft cover or pdf download, $55.95 (less for PMI members)


PMI® released the 2nd Edition of the Practice Standard for Earned Value Management at the October North American Congress. This replaces the first edition which I had the opportunity to work on, but was sadly disappointed in the final product. (Not my fault.) This edition is a complete and welcomed rewrite and is truly a complete treatment of EVM. While the first edition was focused on "what is EVM" this edition is focused on "how to do EVM". It is process focused and ties to processes in the PMI Guide to Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMI PMBOK). Its chapters address "EVM Overview", "Project Organization", "Assigning Responsibility", "Develop Schedule", "Establishing Budget", "Determine Measurement Methods", "Establish Performance Measurement Baseline", "Analyze Project Performance", and "Maintain Project Performance Baseline".


Appendices address schedule analysis (earned schedule), integration of EVM with risk management, deployment of EVM systems, and EVM pitfalls and recommendations.


It's CPI is greater than the first considering you get 151 pages of good stuff for $56(US) versus the first edition of about $1 per page of useful content.


A well qualified international volunteer team, lead by J. Greg Smith, wrote the Practice Standard. It was reviewed by an equally qualified international volunteer team. In addition public comments were received and adjudicated. The resulting Standard is international and industry neutral. (Differences between US ANSI 748 EVM and the PS are noted throughout.)


The goal of the PS team was "to provide the global community with a readable document that (1) explains the basics of EVM clearly and concisely for new practitioners and (2) provides a reasonable extension those who want more ....than given in the PMBOK Guide." The team achieved their goal.


The previous version was PMI's most popular "Standard" behind the PMI PMBOK. An academic study found this first version to be the mostly widely accepted standard for EVM worldwide. I expect sales and use of this version to exceed that of the first edition and help bring the power of EVM to projects, industries, companies, and governments worldwide.



Back to top


 Tidbit # 27, Spaghetti Lines and EVM


Call them hurricanes, typhoons, or cyclones. Whatever you call them, when they are on TV they get the attention of millions of people. The challenge for the national weather agencies is to predict where, when, and with how much force the storm will make landfall. "Spaghetti lines" are what the weather services call the various wiggly lines that attempt to predict the storm's path from its present position to likely future positions. Same data, different models, different prognostication. Sometimes the lines are nearly the same, sometimes they diverge significantly. What that shows is the range of possible paths.


In EVM we start with the same four data: PV, EV, AC, BAC. We should use these data as input to several models so we can also forecast a range of outcomes. No estimate will be right, but if we have a several estimates we can see how closely they agree or don't agree. This can show us a range of possible outcomes. The effort to put EVM in place and collect performance data has been done by the time we have our EVM data. Why not run the data through all the "models". It's just a formula and computers do math really well. Here are a few "models" that can be used with our basic EVM data.


  • EAC = ACcum + (BAC-EV)/(CPI*SPI)
  • EAC = ACcum + (BAC-EV)/(CPIn {for the last n months})
  • EAC = ACcum + (BAC-EV)
  • ECD (Estimated Completion Date) = Planned Duration/(SPI{t})


  • Statistical forecasts of final CPI and SPI based upon values to date, periods remaining, and desired confidence level (percent)


Other non-EVM models:

  • EAC = ACcum + Bottom-up estimate
  • ECD from Critical Path Analysis


Only by applying a number of models and methods can we know the range of possible outcomes. Sharing this with our stakeholders helps them realize the future is uncertain and no single point estimate will be correct.


As the hurricane turns and heads in a new direction the weather experts will state, "Yeah, one of our models said this might happen." You should strive to be able to make the same statement about your project.


Back to top



Microsoft Project 2010's Scheduling Trap


Microsoft has added a new, but questionable feature cdohalled "manual scheduling". The duration of tasks assigned to "manual scheduling" is input by the user and does not use Critical Path Methods. While this new feature might produce schedules we'd like to see, the result may be unrealistic.


Unless you are just generating a piece of artwork it's recommended that "manual scheduling" be disabled via the options menu.



 IPMC Keynote Addresses US Fiscal House


The Integrated Program Management Conference (IPMC) was held earlier this month. Around 700 project managers, EVM practitionersDollar sign, and project controls staff attended the two and a half day program.


The opening keynote speaker was the Honorable David M. Walker, founder and CEO of the Comeback America initiative. Previously he was the Comptroller General of the US. His address to the IPMC attendees had nothing to do with EVM.


He started with the statement than the USA has strayed from its principles. The United States Government (USG) has gotten too big, promised too much, and spends too much. In 1800 the USG spent 2% of the GDP, now it's around 24%, heading toward 37% by 2040. Less than 40 % of the federal outlay is spent on services mentioned in the Constitution. No one political party is to blame.


USdebt, as a percent of GDP, exceeds that of Spain and Portugal. Fifty-one percent of the US population does not pay income taxes and may receive earned income credit. "There are more people on the wagon than pulling the wagon.", David said.


To grow out of this debt the US will require double digit growth for decades. That is impossible so growth is not a solution.


Fiscal reform must be feasible:

  1. Does it make sense?
  2. Is it socially accepted?
  3. Is it culturally accepted?
  4. Does it past the math test?
  5. Is it politically feasible?
  6. Can it achieve bi-partisan support?


He obviously left the audience with much to think about.


Selected IPMC technical sessions will be reviewed next month.


Plan to attend EVM World this June in Naples, Florida. Details below under "Conferences".



Statistics and EVM


Can statistics be applied to EVM?


I don't know. I failed Probability and Statistics in college;the onlybell curve class I outright failed. I had a good tutor. She was a math major who got a "A" in the same class. Did I mention she was my girlfriend at the time. (So much for studying.)


Do SPI (t) and CPI follow normal statistical distribution?


Nope. CPI and SPI (t) can not be less than 0 but can be very large. Obviously there is not a bell curve about 1.0. But is there an EVM based analysis that does behave as a normal distribution? Yes. To find out more read "Further Study of the Normality of CPI and SPI (t)" by Walt Lipke, PMI Oklahoma City Chapter, at PMWorld Today.


Careful, it involves logarithms, antilogarithms, and reciprocals.

Workshops EVPrep™ and EVM Workshops
The following workshops are planned for the following locations:
  • Reston, VA
  • Atlanta, GA
  • Dallas, TX
  • Columbus ,OH
Earned Value Experience (CAM) Workshop
You'll experience creating an earned value management baseline, determining earned value from project status, Classroomcalculating earned value management indices, and estimating final cost and completion date. This workshop is perfect for team leads, control account managers, financial and schedule control staff, project and program managers, and chief project officers.

Excel EzEVM™Templates may be retained by attendees to implement earned value management in their organization.



View the Earned Value Experience (CAM) workshop outline and get the registration form.
Interested in an on-site workshop? Send an e-mail with your your address and the number of attendees to receive a quote

EVPrepEVPrep Exam Prep Workshop

The workshop covers all the topics likely covered in the exam and provides exam-like questions and workshop discussion about each question and the possible answers. This workshop also includes an EVM analysis question to help prepare you for the three page written essay in Part II (was part IV).

This is twelve hours of mock EVP exam and discussions of correct and incorrect answers.
Do you have an EVP FAQ
Go to AACE's website for the latest information about exam dates.
View the EVPrep workshop outline and get the registration form.

Interested in an on-site workshop? Send an e-mail with your your address and the number of attendees to receive a quote.

Upcoming EVM and PM Conferences 
NASA PM Challenge 2012
WHEN: 22-23 February 2012
WHERE: Orlando, FL
EVM World 2012
WHEN: 30 May 2012 - June 2 2012
WHERE: Naples, FL

AACE Annual Meeting 2012

WHEN: 8-11 July 2012 

WHERE:Marriott Rivercenter, San Antonio, Texas
MORE INFO: AACE, International  
Do you have news to share? Send your news item and we'll review it for posting in a future EVM Newsletter.
Ray Stratton, PMP, EVP
Management Technologies

Copyright 2011, Management Technologies

The EVM Newsletter, EVPrep, The Earned Value Management Maturity Model, EVM3, EzEVM, and The Earned Value Experience are trademarks of Management Technologies.


The Earned Value Professional , EVP, and the AEP logo are marks of the Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering, International. (AACE®).


The PMP, PMBOK, PMI, and R.E.P. , and the Registered Education Provider logo are
registered marks of the Project Management Institute, Inc.